NFL Picks – Week 6

 

Man alive, 3-2.  It just feels like one of these years where things just refuse to turn around.  Now only 12-15 on the season ATS.  It might be time to start picking the over in every single game….had it in the Denver game 2 weeks in a row where it was nearly 60, had it in the Atlanta/NY Jets game which featured an offense that shouldn’t be putting up 10 put up 30.  But as last year’s playoffs proved, I’m awful at that.  So I’ll stick to what I’m normally pretty good at and see if I can get that big week I’ve been looking for.  You would think coming off a winning week I would be more amped.  Perhaps I’m just a bitter man…

 

Pittsburgh at NY Jets

Pittsburgh +2.5

Steelers coming off a bye week, and the Jets are coming off a short week.  But it doesn’t end there.  Roethlisberger is the better QB, Tomlin is the better coach, and the Steelers have a defense that will make Geno Smith look like a rookie again.  The public will overreact to Smith’s Monday night, but the fact is many people seen that coming.  The Falcons have a bad defense, in particular their pass rush, and it made it easy for Smith.  In this game, he will turn the ball over, and the Jets defense won’t be able to totally shutdown Roethlisberger.  And lets not forget, the Steelers got Le’Veon Bell back in London and he looked great so I’m thinking the Steelers take this outright.  Take the points.

 

Jacksonville at Denver

Denver -27.5

I have to pick this game don’t I?!  Nobody is going to be stupid enough to take this line…except me.  It has been a year where there is no trend.  Remember week 3 when the Jags were 19.5 point favorite’s in Seattle?  Everyone said to take the points, and the Jags got blown out 45-….well over 20 less points (I think it was 17 but I can’t recall).  The Jags will score some on the Broncos defense, but that Broncos D will be ticked.  They just gave up 48 to the Cowboys, so don’t think Jack Del Rio won’t have them fired up to play his former employers.  And Manning will put up at least 42…at least.  I believe Peyton is starting to see that some of these records are very attainable and he’ll want to see them, namely the ones set by the 07 Patriots.  This game is a great chance to get well out in front of that teams pace.  I expect something like 45-3 by the 4th, then the Broncos start sitting guys and the Jags get a couple of TD’s…28 point Broncos win.

 

Tennessee at Seattle

Seattle -13

Man when did you last see me go BIG on the favorites?!  I’m all about picking the dogs, but not this week!  Seahawks coming off a loss, so they’ll be fired up.  They’re at home, and we all know how amazing that home field advantage is.  The Titans don’t have Jake Locker and need to go with Ryan Fitzpatrick…who this defense will simply rip apart.  If Locker were playing, 13 would be pretty enticing.  The Titans are real good along the lines, so they could make it a long day for the Seahawks.  But for me it all just comes down to Ryan Fitzpatrick.  The Seahawks will put up 24-28 points on the Titans defense, and I highly doubt Fitzpatrick can put up more than 10.

 

Washington at Dallas

Washington +5.5

The more I thought about it, the more I liked this pick.  Washington is coming off the bye, the Cowboys just had a pretty deflating loss to the Broncos, an in division game (even in the awful NFC East) is usually a pretty tight and hard fought game, and the Redskins owned the Cowboys last season in 2 very big games.  RGIII will shred this defense.  There is talent all over that side of the ball for the Cowboys, but while heading into last week I wasn’t a big believer in the stats…I am now.  I’m starting to believe the game has just simply passed Monte Kiffin by.  No reason this defense shouldn’t be MUCH better than it is.  I’m thinking Dallas wins a tight one, so take Washington getting points.

 

Indianapolis at San Diego

San Diego +1.5

Well that doesn’t make much sense.  The Colts just beat the mighty Seahawks, while the Chargers got rolled by the lowly Raiders!  For the 3rd week in a row, I sniff out the Vegas bait.  TAKE THE CHARGERS.  There isn’t much logic behind this, but this is Vegas baiting you.  The one thing I can think of is that the Colts have had a lot of trouble playing in San Diego over the years.  Other than that I honestly can’t think of a real good reason why the Chargers should be the pick.  That’s exactly what Vegas wants you to think.  The money will be on the Colts, and the public is wrong a lot more than it’s right so take the Chargers.  Maybe the Colts win and things go as they should, but they usually don’t.

 

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