I f*****g HATE picking games this weekend!!! The one year I nailed it, I intentionally picked the opposite of what I thought would happen. Go back and look, I think it was 2014, I intentionally picked the opposite. So I was finally right, yet went 0-4 because apparently god hates me. My short legs and fat stomach weren’t enough for you hey bud?! Like it’s not bad as in I go 2-2-1 or 2-3 every year. Oh no, it’s pretty consistently 0-4. So it doesn’t matter what I write here, I am completely f****d picking these games! So yeah, don’t use these. Having said all this, somehow I usually recover and win more than I lose in the playoffs. So it’s literally just this weekend.
I did have an ok season. Six games over .500 with a record of 43-37-7. Not what I’d deem a success, but had you gone with my picks ATS all year, you would have won a little coin. Again though, this particular weekend, use these at your own risk!
Oakland at Houston
I want to cry every time I think of the Raiders these days. They were primed to be a serious threat to the Pats in the AFC, back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years. That might not be a major gap for some organizations, but the Raiders are NFL royalty. They’ve had some of the most iconic players and teams in NFL history, and as I always say sports are always better when those teams are winning. No Derek Carr, no chance. And the Texans are so boring, with only slightly better quarterbacking than the Raiders without Carr. The ONE thing that gives me a bit of pause is that Connor Cook is ok. He’s had all season to learn the playbook, all week to prepare, the Texans won’t have any pro film on him, and he fell in the draft in large part because of his personality, not his talent. But it’s his first start, against a solid defense, on the road, in the playoffs. Logically, you just can’t bet this game the other way.
Detroit at Seattle
Again, just like last week, while I like this Lions team and quite frankly will pull for them in this game, I just do not like the vibe coming from this team. Matthew Stafford is too dinged up, and he’ll need every bit of zip on his ball he can get against this defense playing in Seattle. The Seahawks secondary has been noticeably worse (as you’d expect) since Earl Thomas went down. But Seattle at home in the playoffs, this team just has an invincible kind of feel in that scenario. I really expect a Seahawks blowout here.
Miami at Pittsburgh
That’s too many points. It’s a ridiculous line in my mind. Sure, any line can be right, but the Dolphins aren’t much different with Matt Moore than they were with Ryan Tannehill. And even though it’s a playoff game, this Steelers team can be REALLY sleepy, even with it being a must win game. Look at the Ravens game. No comparison between those two teams talent wise, and the Steelers were at home, yet they still just barely pulled that one out. Steelers win, but I believe the Dolphins will surprise and keep this one at least within a TD.
NY Giants at Green Bay
Again, this feels like a ridiculous line to me. Packers should be favored, but only by 2.5 or 3. Game of the weekend without a doubt. One of the best offenses vs one of the best defenses, Rodgers vs Manning, two of the most storied teams in NFL history, I said it on Monday that this one has all the ingredients to go down as a classic. 5 points? Could happen. But smart money goes on the Giants with that being the number. I really believe this one will be a field goal either way.
NY Giants at Green Bay
As I just alluded to, I expected this one to be a tight game, and I also expect it to be low scoring. The Giants D, combined with the Giants offense, combined with brutal temperatures that are expected tomorrow and while I despise taking the under, I just don’t see how you can bet this one any other way.
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