Well you all know how much I love to talk betting when it comes to the NFL. You would probably think I’m a big time gambler with how much I talk about it. You probably think that a gambolling monster has enslaved me. Perhaps you call him Gamblor. The truth is, while I do throw down some coin here and there on games, I don’t have the money to lose!
But I love looking at it, love talking about it, and I feel like most guys who watch football love talking about it and betting. And I don’t see how betting on football is anything bad. You’ll hear people say “woah, you gotta be careful betting football” and then tell you how much they just lost in Vegas three weeks ago in the same sentence. Know your limits. That’s all. It’s a cliché, but it’s true. So with that being said, I’m going to give you my picks for win totals this season and where I believe you should go with your money. Chip me off 10% of your winnings….seriously….I know where you all live…
Keep in mind with this piece, I’m looking at the best bets, not really the most sure bets. When betting, you always look for good value.
Over 7.5 wins
Not the best value which I’ll talk about here, but it is value nonetheless. Can Matt Ryan win a Super Bowl? That’s debatable. Can Matt Ryan win 8 games? Absolutely. Ryan, Julio Jones, an improving offensive line, an improving defense (yes, American spelling while talking NFL), I’m not saying this team is winning the division but I think it’s very likely they go .500.
Over 7.5 wins
The division isn’t that good now that Teddy Bridgewater is gone for the season. I’m sure the Vikings will still be a bitch to play against with Mike Zimmer as head coach, but they aren’t going to be anything more than a 7-9 team without Bridgewater. But even more so than that, I like the Bears to be a surprise this season. Cutler is hated, but he’s not bad. Kevin White is healthy now and will provide Cutler with another beast at WR. And John Fox has a history of getting teams with average talent to overachieve. The 03 Panthers, the 2011 Broncos, the guy is a real good coach. Literally everyone is sleeping on the Bears, and you always have a few teams overachieve which everyone is shitting on, so why not the Bears?
Over 9.5 wins
I know they seem more and more like a mess as the seasons go by. But while they’re kind of a mess, the Titans and Jags have been bigger messes. And those two don’t have Andrew Luck, the Colts do. So you got the team with the best QB in the division, it’s not remotely close at this time (though I do like Blake Bortles moving forward), they’re the division favourites, and to win the division they will likely win 10 games. This isn’t a sure thing, but getting +161 is insane value, so put a few bucks on it.
Over 8.5 wins
This isn’t about value, this is about certainty. Knock on wood they stay healthy. But if they stay healthy, this team is making the playoffs. This sucks, because I was on this bandwagon long before it filled up. Now it’s got people hanging off the side with a shit load of others running along side it, but I’m still on it despite all these other free loaders hoping on. 9 wins for sure, likely 10. It’s not value at all, but you’re still highly likely to make money here.
San Francisco 49ers
Over 5.5 wins
These all ended up being over. Trust me, that was unintentional. Anyway, the Niners. They were a mess last season, I know. Chip Kelly created a mess in Philly last season, I know. But while I don’t like Chip Kelly the GM, Chip Kelly the coach has been real solid thus far in the NFL. And the Niners always have had a lot of talent under Tent Balke. So to only get 6 wins…I know the NFC West is TOUGH, I know they were a disgrace last season, but I see them going at least 6-10, and likely 7-9. To me, this is the safest bet of the of the value picks I’ve made.
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