NFL Week 14 Picks ATS

Not happy.  Not happy at all!  First of all, this weather is just horrific.  It’s such a cop out topic, but seriously the weather is all that’s on my mind right now.  It’s so cold I don’t want to do anything but crank the heat and stay inside.  Put on top of that, the Oilers aren’t playing well, speculation has begun that the Jays front office would prefer to not do anything so they’re setup to sell off everyone at next year’s trade deadline, and a 1-4 performance with my picks last Sunday.  Do you want to know the real truth about Christmas kids?  When you become an adult, December goes from amazing to disgusting!  Bah humbug…or whatever they said in the 20’s (I have to get in saying the 20’s as much as possible now because in 3 years we’ll have to say whether that’s the 1920’s or the 2020’s).  1-4 last week, 33-27-6 on the season.

 

Arizona at Miami

Dolphins +2

The Dolphins should not be underdogs in this game.  It started that way.  Then all the money, sharp and public went on the Cardinals.  I’m in the vast minority on this that Vegas knew something nobody else did.  Because from a public standpoint they’d still view the Cards as a great team who had a tough season, and the Dolphins as a shitty team who had a lucky season.  Coming off what was by far their worst performance of the season, the Dolphins will be as desperate of a team as you’ll find.  Also what I hear being left out on this…while it’s not a PST team playing at 10 AM, it is a MST team playing at 11 AM.  I believe the Dolphins win a tight, low scoring game outright at home.

 

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Browns +6

Don’t get cute here, just take the 6 points, but I’m personally taking the Browns to win outright.  At home, RGIII is back at QB, the Bengals suck, the Browns are off a bye, this game is nothing to the Bengals, this game is everything to the Browns who if they don’t win here they likely aren’t winning in 2016.  As if all that wasn’t enough, RJ Bell had stats this week that said this is almost a lock.  The favorite in this series in the last 19 games has covered only 5 times.  Also, any team that has been winless after week 8 since 1990 has gone 50-22-3 ATS.  Finally, any winless team of 0-5 or worse playing on extra rest (in this case, off a bye) have gone 23-5-1 ATS.  The Browns at +6 is about as safe of a bet as you’ll ever find.

 

Washington at Philadelphia

Redskins -2.5

So I’ll be honest, I don’t love this bet.  In division, Eagles are going to be desperate, I just don’t have a great feeling on this one.  But I have to pick 5 games, and this one SHOULD be a safe bet.  Redskins I view as one of the top teams in the NFC, and the Eagles have done nothing but trend down since their week 3 blowout win over the Steelers.  So I’ll take the Redskins here to win by a field goal, but just don’t bet this one hard.

 

Seattle at Green Bay

Packers +3

This one is a little safer than the Redskins bet.  I still don’t really trust the Packers right now, but they’re a terrific late season team.  This team in the last 15 seasons or so have been amazing in December.  Plus the Seahawks aren’t really a snow team.  They won in the snow last year in Minnesota, but they needed Blair Walsh to have one of the worst misses of all time to get the win.  They do play in bad weather a lot this time of year, but not in this kind of cold and not the snow.  I do think the Seahawks win, but I believe it’ll be a really tight game.

 

Dallas at NY Giants

Cowboys -3.5

I basically say it in everything I write on the NFL these days, I just think the Giants are total frauds.  I keep hearing people say “this is the type of Giants team that wins the Super Bowl”.  No!  It’s nothing like those Giants teams!  Those Giants teams were better than their record suggested, this team is much worse!  I do worry a bit here as to how Dak Prescott will do if the weather plays a factor, but as dominant as the Cowboys have been to this point, this team is built for December/January football.  They keep your D on the field and beat you up with their O-line.  That formula works great at anytime of the year, but is a nightmare when the weather gets bad.

 

Over/Under

1-1 last week (again), 6-4 on the season.

 

San Diego at Carolina

Over 49

Cam Newton vs Philip Rivers, both teams have just ok defenses.  I’d trust the Panthers D a little more if Luke Kuechly were healthy, but he isn’t.  So Newton coming off being humiliated in more ways than one on national TV will be hot, and Rivers has just quietly been one of the best in the league this season.  I believe this will be the highest scoring game of the week.

 

Dallas at NY Giants

Over 47

Doesn’t really makes sense if you consider their week one matchup was 20-19, and that was indoors in September.  Outdoors in December I have it going over?!  Well the Cowboys now are a MUCH more confident team than the Cowboys were back then.  Counter that with the fact I don’t like any of the Cowboys DB’s to lock down ODB, so he may go off in this one.  The Cowboys secondary is real good, probably the only strength that defense has, but I still believe the Giants can exploit them and make this a 31-24 type game.

 

Guessing the Lines (week 15)

9/16 last week, 44/76 on the season.  The goal is to be within a point of the line.

 

L.A. at Seattle -7.5

 

Miami -3.5 at NY Jets

 

Green Bay -7 at Chicago

 

Cleveland at Buffalo -7.5

 

Philadelphia at Baltimore -6.5

 

Tennessee at Kansas City -6.5

 

Pittsburgh -6 at Cincinnati

 

Detroit at NY Giants -3

 

Indianapolis at Minnesota -1.5

 

Jacksonville at Houston -4.5

 

New Orleans at Arizona -2.5

 

San Francisco at Atlanta -9.5

 

Oakland -1 at San Diego

(the Raiders might get a bigger number than this, but I’m thinking this might be a Vegas bait because the Chargers are winning this game)

 

New England -3 at Denver

 

Tampa Bay at Dallas -6.5

 

Carolina at Washington -3

 

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