So here is a dirty little secret about me:…well, it’s not actually a dirty secret, and I’m not sure it’s anything scandalous in general.  But here it is: I’ve been wanting to do a “What If” blog for a long time now.  There have been lot’s that I started.  Gretzky not been dealt, Lemieux at the 98 Olympics, Chris Pronger never asked for a trade, the Penguins taken Jonathan Toews, there are a lot of them you could do.  One of my favourites in sports is if the Detroit Pistons in 2003 taken Carmelo Anthony with the 2nd pick in the NBA draft and how huge that would have been for the Pistons success AND Melo’s career.

 

My worlds collide on this one though.  I’ve been wanting to do these pieces coupled with a question that a few Oilers fans have asked of late.  So let’s go back.  It’s April 19th, 2015 and we have the ability to simply say to Bob Nicholson “get off the fucking golf course and do your job!!!”  But we ALSO have the ability to say “quit talking about your fucking Bobby Nicks burgers you sound like such a piece of shit, do your fucking job!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!”  And finally, we ALSO have the ability to tell him “Bob, hiring Peter Chiarelli is a colossal mistake and it is a better play to simply stick with Mac T”.

 

1. Todd McLellan is still hired as head coach

No, we don’t get a do-over on this one and have the ability to also stick with Todd Nelson even though we all would like to.  This was heavily rumoured to be happening pretty much from the moment Dallas Eakins was fired if I recall correctly.  It was going to be Mac T’s move.  So McLellan is still the guy, even though he shouldn’t have been and that amazing thing that Todd Nelson appeared to have going on was likely legit.

 

2. He lands Dougie Hamilton

I don’t pin the Oilers inability to land Hamilton on Chiarelli.  It was widely reported at the time that the Bruins flat out refused to do business with the recently departed Chiarelli.  The ask from the Oilers was the same as the ask from the Flames…PLUS Darnell Nurse.  I’m actually stunned Chiarelli didn’t simply say “ok” given what he’s done since!  But that would have been an insane over payment.  If Mac T is the GM though, the Bruins are likely very fine dealing with him.  The package the Oilers could have gave up was VERY similar to the Flames, and I believe according to the draft chart was a little more value than the Flames.  Realistically though, the Bruins would take getting just a tiny bit less in a deal to risk that they could get more out of the Oilers, and they could have given how desperate they were.  So what is the extra piece?  Let’s not go with fantasy, let’s think about what the Oilers had at the time which could have been of interest to the B’s, which thanks to a razor thin prospect pool would have probably been their 2016 2nd rounder, so say bye to Tyler Benson.  Still a deal that many would have been on board with at the time.

 

3. 2015 Off-Season stays in tact

Talbot, Sekera, Letestu and Klefbom’s extension in my mind still all get done.  I’ve always felt like Chiarelli didn’t really start to run things until the 2016 trade deadline.  There was no big connection to any of the players he traded for/signed, and the Klefbom extension had to be the OBC because Chiarelli couldn’t have known the player THAT well.  None of those moves felt like they were because of Chiarelli.

 

4. Schultz stays

With Dougie Hamilton in the lineup, the blueline wouldn’t have been fixed, just improved.  But slotting Schultz more properly would have been huge as we’ve seen it’s been in Pittsburgh.  Now, maybe he still falls apart.  There is something to be said for the East/West differences in style of play and the style of defenceman Schultz is does seem to get eaten up in the West.  But with the pressure off him had Hamilton been there, I just believe it would have made a world of difference for the perception of him in the eyes of management, the media, and the fans.

 

5. No Maroon

I mean…who knows?  But I just don’t think Mac T would have pulled that one off.  I know Murray was looking to off load Maroon at the time, so MAYBE he still gets lucky.  But to me it was a move that Chiarelli got from being around the league and his relationship with Bob Murray, I just don’t know if Mac T would have had that one happen.

 

5. Hall stays/Demers signs

Mac T wouldn’t have had the balls….or maybe a better word is the stupidity….to pull the trigger on it.  He would have seen Jason Demers out there and said “that’s the better play is to stay the course and bring in Demers”.  Mac T not only had his chances to panic, but painted himself into a corner by saying “bold moves” once he was hired and he STILL didn’t get overly stupid as a GM!  Yes, he royally fucked up with Petry, but in hindsight he never put the team in a position of no return with his decisions like Chiarelli did.  In fact, the reason he didn’t extend Petry was because he was being too conservative.  No doubt that Demers would have been overpaid.  I’m guessing something as bad as 6×6.  But that still wouldn’t have been as bad as the Lucic contract has been, and would have along with Hamilton and better slotting of Schultz improved the blueline more than Chiarelli has been able to.

 

After that, it’s anyone’s guess.  Russell…I doubt it because the blueline would have then looked pretty set.  Benning?  Probably not as it was Chiarelli who drafted him in Boston.  Eberle might go after the 2017 season, but for Ryan Strome?  Here is the big one to keep in mind and be completely fair though:

 

6. The System isn’t near as good

The one thing I can’t take away from Chiarelli is that he has turned around the drafting and developing here.  One reason I wouldn’t fear dealing the 1st round pick this season is because they know what they’re doing in rounds 2-7.  I wouldn’t say the system is loaded right now by any means, but it looks really solid.  We’ve got to see Caleb Jones recently.  Ethan Bear is a damn good prospect.  Joel Persson, Maksimov, Benson, Marody, McLeod, Wells, Skinner, Kemp, go down the list.  He has done a terrific job turning the system around.

 

Having said that, I still am taking what Mac T likely would have done with the big club’s roster over a drastically improved system.  But thanks to this great system, now the next GM should be able to keep it in place and the organization can simply focus on finding someone who can find value in trades and free agency.

 

It’s amazing to say, but they would have been better off.  Man, what a nightmare this has turned into.  Pretty much everything since winning McDavid has found a way to blow up in their faces.  It’s what happens to people who are poor at their jobs.  Bad bounces find them, and good bounces find people who are good at it.  Look at the Leafs.  Nobody talks about it, but they’ve had some insanely great luck the last four years!  Babcock, Marner, Matthews, and Tavares could EAAAAAAAAAAAASILY be Bylsma, Strome or Hanifin, Puljujarvi and re-signing Bozak.  But they’d still be a damn good organization because they’re so well run.

 

If it’s me doing the hiring, I want the Oilers to find the best analytics guy they can get to be the next GM of the team.  This position is perfect right now for someone who can find value.  I don’t like analytics guys for rebuilding situations, but I’d love a job like that for this gig.  He wouldn’t get swayed by old school minds or what the media in town thought of the team.  He would just look to get the cap under control, and look to find the best bargains he could given the situation.

 

Something better happen soon though, because when it has become pretty clear that Craig MacTavish was a better GM then you were, the time has come to (as Mike Commordore would say) pack your shit.

 

Subscribe to the Podcast

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

Like the fan page on Facebook

Follow me on Instagram @Soups_on_Hockey

Hmmm, I see I managed to get pictures which are both photo bombed by Drake Caggiula.  I prefer Caggiula with Hitch simply so I can call them “Drake and the fat man”.  Used that line talking to one of my buddies the other night and if he’s reading this now he’s thinking “get a new joke Campbell you fucking moron”.  Completely justified.

 

Can I be honest about something?  I wasn’t at all surprised by that win Tuesday night.  Even at 3-2 going to the 3rd, I felt good about the spot they were in.  They won, and now we go from the sky is falling to starring at a golden chance to take 5 of 6 or maybe even 6 straight. The division is so bad that they’re already back in a tie for 3rd spot (at least by points percentage).  The optimism isn’t all because of the coaching change.  But it’s the coaching change combined with a massive win against the top team in the division and a light schedule on the horizon.  And if you go by my personal power rankings (outdated now of course), the Oilers are now 5-4-1 against what were my top 8 teams at the end of October.  Being fair, three of the five were in OT.  But if you want to be fair to the Oilers, two of those three were comeback wins on the road, and three of the five have been on the road.  You’ll have a tough time convincing me that this team isn’t capable of making the playoffs in this division when they’re above .500 against top competition.

 

So the more I’ve given this thought, the more I’ve loved this move for the Oilers.  Hey, maybe it’s all just optimism that comes with a new coach?  Easily could be.  And combine that with me being a pretty big Hitchcock fan for a long time now, this will likely be viewed as me going overboard.  But it’s tough to look at his track record and not see how positive his impact could be.  Not for sure, who the hell knows what’ll happen, but I have a tough time seeing how it won’t be at least a decent upgrade.

 

Do you remember the 2014-15 Penguins?  Of course you don’t.  You remember the 2015-16 Penguins?  Of course you do because they won the Cup.  The 14-15 Penguins were a disaster.  And then in November of 2015 the Penguins looked like a completely fucked franchise.  But people forget this.  Mike Johnston was a disaster of a head coach for them, after they had done nothing but digress after winning the Cup with Dan Bylsma in 09.  Something else with that team that was being said at the time is that the GM (first Shero and then Rutherford) was they weren’t getting Sid the help he needed.  All he had was Malkin, the Kessel trade was horrendous, and Sid had nothing.  Sound familiar Oilers fans?…The effect that change had on the Pens was insane.  Mike Sullivan didn’t do a lot honestly.  Mike Johnston just was a bad fit for that hockey club.  I don’t feel like Todd McLellan, the way he was coaching the team from the psychology to the system to the results was a fit for this Oilers team.  Ken Hitchock just might be the perfect fit for them.

 

I might just sound like an amateur blogger who is really just a guy spewing garbage who’s opinion deserves nothing more than to be pissed on by people in the media, but I’m right and most of them are very wrong on the fact that Todd McLellan isn’t a great head coach.  Sounds like an AMAZING man, and I feel awful for the guy because I really do believe that he worked his balls off and had nothing but the best intentions imaginable for the Oilers.  He’s just an average coach by NHL standards.  Not by the media’s standards.  No, by their standards he treated them great so he’s an amazing head coach and it’s not his fault.  Because he treated them great.  I get it, but let’s maybe start doing our jobs and get just a LITTLE more objectivity fellas?

 

Is Peter Chiarelli deserving of his job right now?  I don’t think so.  I’m not a “one or the other” guy on this.  Both coach and GM should have lost their jobs after last season, let alone 20 games into this one.  But Chiarelli going won’t make or break THIS season, I’m not sure how this is lost on the “yeah but Chiarelli…” crowd.  What exactly is your defence for McLellan staying if you simply want to blame Chiarelli?  What is his track record of getting his teams to higher level’s of performance?  And why did most of you believe 12 months ago this roster was capable of contending for a Cup and now is nothing other than 97?  I’m VERY well aware of how much gold Chiarelli traded away and it makes me sick.  I get that.  But is this roster capable of making the playoffs?  Yes, it is.  And last year it not only didn’t make the playoffs, it didn’t COMPETE for the playoffs.  Most observers reasoning for McLellan staying was basically “well, if he had the stacked roster he should have then they would be a playoff team”.  So, he’s a great coach, but because his roster isn’t loaded it’s not his fault.  Right?  Who is the player which surprised and took a massive leap under McLellan?  The only one I can think of who you can maybe make a case for is Nurse, though if you’ve read my stuff you know I’ve been sky high on Nurse from day one.  There wasn’t one player who I personally looked at as a guy McLellan and his staff were elevating/developing.  And TRUST ME on this: I was full board on the McLellan bandwagon once they hired him.  I didn’t know what the big deal was about him previous to the hire, but once they hired him I bought into everything the media told us on how great of a coach he was and for two and a half years I never gave it a thought.  But the fact is that there just isn’t a case for the guy.

 

Look at the track record and it gets worse.  Ron Wilson is a pariah these days.  Wilson took just an ok team (the 98 Caps) to the Stanley Cup final.  He took the Sharks to the Western final in 04.  Going into the 06 playoffs they were most observers favourites to go to the final.  06-08 they couldn’t get past the 2nd round and Wilson was fired.  In steps McLellan to get this loaded Sharks team to the Cup!  Here we go, they’re about to rattle off some Cups!  09, bounced in the 1st round.  Well whatever, just one season of many.  2010 they made it to the Western final!  They took six games to knock off an awful Avalanche team (seriously, one of the worst playoff teams since the league went to 30 teams in 01).  Then they knocked off the Wings in five…who had gone seven games with the Coyotes and had played 63 playoff games over the three previous seasons so it’s safe to say they were just a tad gassed.  But whatever, they were in the West final…and got swept.  2011 though, that’s their year!  Right?!  They beat the Kings…before Darryl Sutter took over and became what they did.  They beat the Wings again…after blowing a 3-0 lead and barely hanging on in game seven at home.  Then against a weaker Canucks team than the Hawks had been, they managed to get a big one win in the West final.  2012, THIS is it for them though right?!  Stumbled down the stretch and got embarrassed in the first round by…Ken Hitchcock’s St. Louis Blues.  Hey, in fairness the Blues had hardly any talent at the time and the Sharks only had a few hall of famers.  2013 was ok, though bounced in the 2nd round to the Kings.  2014 they looked like they FINALLY were going to go somewhere, and blew a 3-0 lead in the first round to the Kings.  2015 he missed the playoffs and was fired.  But obviously the Sharks will digress big time once he’s gone…right?…If Ron Wilson had done all that we’d be talking about what a disaster he was for not getting anywhere near over the hump with that talent.  And then the next coach takes them to the final?!  That’s a bad look!  But McLellan skates because everyone loves the guy.  And again, I’m not in anyway looking to bash the person, but I’m trying to look at it objectively when most seem to be refusing to do so.

 

Now, some will say the Oilers took a big leap forward because of him, but did they?  Cam Talbot was Vezina candidate worthy in 2017, and it was McDavid’s first full season.  Add to that, Lucic was still producing, Eberle while digressing was still a 50 point player, and the team (even though it was a disgusting overpay to get there) was a lot more balanced up front and on the blueline.  I actually believe he might have done a better job in 2016.  2016 he had horrible injury luck and had the team stayed healthy with the West being down, they might have snuck in the playoffs.  But for people to be picking virtually the same roster as this one to go to the final 14 months ago (or at least be a legit contender to get there), and then say today that the roster has nothing other than McDavid…spare me.  FUCKING.  SPARE.  ME.  Todd McLellan…he’s just another coach.  I remember saying this about him when I had tapped on him last year.  He’s not a BAD coach, but he’s no different than 3/4 of the coaches in the league.  He’s no different from a Paul Maurice, a Gerard Gallant, a John Stevens, a Lindy Ruff, a Mike Yeo, a Glen Gulutzan, a Willie Desjardins.  They’re all just guys who don’t have much of an impact on teams.  They mainly live and die with their goaltending, and they’re a dime a dozen.  Can they have momentary impacts like Maurice first did with the Jets or Gallant last season in Vegas?  Yep.  But Gallant for example has had three gigs now.  In Columbus he didn’t have goaltending and his teams did nothing.  In Florida he had great goaltending and they made the playoffs in 2016.  And last year he had incredible goaltending (and frankly the easiest job in the league).  They’re all guys who people seem to really like, and get REALLY overrated.  McLellan was a hot coaching candidate initially because the job he did as Mike Babcock’s assistant in Detroit.  The last guy who was hired in similar fashion was Jeff Blashill.  Blashill spent time as a Babcock assistant and the head coach in Grand Rapids and all I heard about was how great Jeff Blashill was.  Granted, the Wings roster has gone to complete shit under him, but he seems to be just like all these other guys to me.

 

Hitchcock though, the media can shut up with all the cliches already on the guy looking to downplay his accomplishments.  “He’s fixer.”  “He has a shelf life”.  No, he’s an elite coach.  Is he going to be any teams coach forever?  No.  But does the media realize that probably 95% of coaches don’t last long EITHER?!  “He has a shelf life”.  Oh ok, I’ll take four or five awesome years of Hitch elevating 3/4 of my team without a shelf life then a decade of Paul Maurice doing nothing like he did in Hartford/Carolina.  I like my teams to WIN, I’m weird like that.

What Hitch does is drastically improve teams.  Dallas, 95-96, bottom five team.  Hitch’s first full season was 96-97 and they finished tied for 2nd in the league, three points out of 1st.  97-98 they won the President’s trophy.  98-99 they won it again and that big silver thing they hand out at the end of the playoffs.  2000 they nearly won that big silver thing again.  But we all know the Stars had a sky high payroll so he only deserves so much credit.  On to Philly in 02-03.  Finished one point behind Jersey for tops in the Atlantic, six behind Ottawa for the President’s trophy after looking awful during the 01-02 season for the talent they had.  The next season they went to game seven of the East final and lost to Tampa by a goal.  Game changed pretty dramatically in 05-06 and they fell apart.  A detractor could say A) Philly also had a monster payroll and B) game got more offensive and Hitch couldn’t adjust.  Ok, that’s fine.  Onto Columbus.  Blue Jackets had never made the playoffs, Hitch gets them to the playoffs.  Not only gets them to the playoffs but has Steve Mason as a Vezina candidate.  And again someone would say that he got lucky Mason was so hot.  Ok…St. Louis.  Blues were very similar to the Oilers.  After making it in 09, Blues fell back off in 2010 and 2011.  2012 started off weak too, and after being shit kicked by the Oilers 5-2, Hitch was brought in.  David Backes, T.J. Oshie, and David Perron were the “stars” up front.  Man, let’s hear about how McDavid, Draisaitl and Nuge are so much worse than that trio…Anyway, 43-15-11 the rest of the way.  Goaltending duo?  Brian Elliott and Jaroslav Halak.  Defence?  21 year old Alex Pietrangelo as his number one guy.  22 year old Kevin Shattenkirk as his number two guy.  I like how the media has completely forgotten where the Blues were at when Hitch took over, or how they’ve just slowly digressed since he left.  In Dallas last season, they also had/have a very similar roster to the Oilers.  Seguin is their McDavid, Benn is their Draisaitl, the blueline is more talented but a lot less experienced than the Oilers is (which is saying something), go look at the Stars roster at the start of last season and tell me you though Radek Faksa was anything.  Now he’s looked at as one of the best two way centres in the game.

 

The one thing a lot of people are leaving out of this though, it’s not just that it looks like an upgrade, it’s that it feels like a much better fit for Chiarelli’s vision.  We’ll call it Chiarelli’s vision, though in the last few days I’ve really wondered how much of it is JUST his doing.  Regardless, think back to Chiarelli’s Boston teams.  Those were teams who resembled Ken Hitchcock teams.  Did they resemble Todd McLellan teams?  They really didn’t.  The Oilers are built like those Bruins teams, and like Hitchcock’s Blues teams.

 

Ken Hitchcock is an elite head coach, even at 66 years old.  He’s a BIG upgrade for the Oilers and in my opinion, combined with a very weak Pacific division, is going to get them in the playoffs and by April I believe they’ll be looked at much differently.  Initially, I felt uneasy about bringing in Hitch.  But the more I thought about it, the more I liked it.  Maybe the biggest thing is that he’s a teacher.  He lives to coach and teach and evolve.  This is a guy, despite being 66 who has embraced analytics, he isn’t just simply an old crusty head coach who’ll do things the same as he did in 1999.  Hitch is known for having veteran teams, but you can point to so many guys who played their best hockey under Hitch.  Modano, Lehtinen, Primeau, Nash, Tarasenko, Backes, Seguin, Faksa, and that’s just the forwards.  As a whole the blueline and goaltending gets a LOT better under Hitch’s watch.  Of course the reason for all the improvements is his system and philosophies on the game.  He demands his players defend as a five man unit.  If you’re a forward, you’re not going to be a passenger in your own zone.  And if you are, then you’ll either be scratched, sent down, or be traded.  Simple.

 

Jimmy Johnson was the same style of coach as Hitchcock when he coached in the NFL.  Now, I know this was 25 years ago, but I’m still going to roll on this.  Anyone will tell you that Johnson is a great guy, yet he pushed his players to their limits.  And he was a psychology major, so he knew how to do it.  Johnson would speak about the self fulfilling prophecy to treat a person as they are and they will remain who they are.  Treat a person as they could be or should be and they will become that person.  I think of that when I think of the comparisons with these two, and though I’ve never heard Hitch say that, I have very little doubt he has the same philosophy.  And to me, it works.  Always has, always will.

 

So many people miss this, not just with Hitch, but the top end coaches in general is their grasp on psychology.  The media just plays it off as “pushing buttons”.  You can’t “push buttons” if you don’t know how to do it.  Dallas Eakins took this approach and it blew up in his face, he didn’t know how to do it.  Look at how much people around hockey absolutely love Hitch.  People didn’t think of Mike Keenan like that, who was also considered a “task master” or a guy who would “push buttons”.  Nobody talks about Michel Therrien like that, and he’s considered that guy too.  I’ve talked about this with my psychologist.  We were talking last year about how it is simply disastrous when coaches try to play mind games with players just because they think that’s what they need to do as a coach.  You can’t do that shit when you don’t know why you’re doing it, or how to do it.  Hitch does.  Away from the rink the guy is an extremely engaging guy.  He’s a teacher.  You really think he would be adored in hockey circles if he was actually anything like what he is behind the bench or at practice?  He’s not, which to me is a sign that the guy knows exactly how to do it.

 

And he’s 100%, not just confident in what he’s telling his players and in how he’s pushing his players, but also 100% secure in what he’s doing and how he’s doing it.  That’s the key.  There are A LOT of people in life who have a massive ego but you can see it’s an act and that they’re actually very insecure people.  Hitch doesn’t come across as that guy at all.  He studies the game non stop, he’s open minded to all idea’s on how to improve (another sign of being secure), and sure he’s 66 but I’m going to tell you the game isn’t passing this guy by.  He’ll change as the game and people playing it do.  It’s a lot like Bill Belichick, Gregg Popovich, Scotty Bowman, etc.

 

Ok, so that’s what Hitch is bringing to the table.  But what you want to know is how this could help/hurt the team.  So…let’s do just that.  I got both area’s and players who I believe he’ll either improve, could improve, or will fall off.

 

First and foremost, the goaltending now should be fine.  Koskinen has already been giving the Oilers the goaltending they’ll need.  Even on nights he doesn’t look great, he’s not getting rattled.  Cam Talbot badly needs some easy nights to get his confidence back up, which is exactly what will happen with Hitch.  Brian Elliott was an afterthought before Hitch got to St. Louis.  By the end of the 2016 season most believed that the Flames got a bargain when they dealt the 35th pick in the 16 draft for Elliott.  Talbot has more talent then Brian Elliott so I’m interested to see how he plays.

 

Next is the PK, and again this would greatly help Talbot in particular who seems to be really struggling mentally on the PK.  But the PK looked a little better already in San Jose.  The Oilers are currently only at 75.4% which is actually slightly worse than last season.  In St. Louis the PK was elite.  7th, 7th, 2nd, 9th, and 3rd overall.  The season before Hitch arrived they were 18th, 81.7%.  Blues first full season without Hitch was of course last season, and where was their PK?  18th, 79.9%.  Where was the Stars in 2017?  30th, 73.9%.  Last season?  14th, 80.8% (top five apparently before Ben Bishop went down Elliotte Friedman pointed out on the latest 31 Thoughts podcast).  He improves it.

 

The blueline in general will improve a lot.  Klefbom and Larsson I feel as though will take another step.  Might be a small one, but it’ll still be noticeable.  The big one though I’m watching for is Nurse.  I really believe this is the perfect coach for Nurse.  Not sure if Hitch will tap into his offensive ability, but defensively I see the kid becoming a beast in his own zone.  Under Hitch, Colton Parayko for example sure was looked at as the next stud D-man in the league wasn’t he?  Since?  No progression.  Won’t surprise me actually if the Oilers end up trading for him just as a side note.  They loved him before and if Hitch does too, I could see them pushing hard with the Blues struggling and Parayko not progressing as they’d hoped.  Also I should toss in here, really like the trade for Chris Wideman if he’s going to be their number six/PP1 D-man.  Klefbom isn’t good enough on that top unit.  Lefty, doesn’t move the puck quick, and too stationary back there for my liking.  I could see Wideman really making an impact if given the chance.  Question will be whether or not he can play well enough five on five to stay in the lineup.

 

Ok I have to speed this up!

 

Leon Draisaitl I believe will thrive.  I’m surprised Hitch wants to keep him on McDavid’s wing, but it’s what he had in Dallas with Seguin and Benn.  Draisaitl’s big problem is he lacks consistency.  I believe they’ll butt heads much like Hull and Tarasenko did to name a few, but we’re going to see Draisaitl’s best.

 

Jujhar Khaira might play the best hockey of his career. First, a lot of observers including myself believe Khaira is better in the middle because it forces him to move his feet.  Hitch has thrived with players of his skill set (Faksa, Shore, Backes to name a few), and I strongly believe we’re going to see him become a pretty valuable player.

 

Then you have the wildcard types where I’m not sure which way it could go.  In terms of players, those would be Lucic and Caggiula.

 

With Looch, he doesn’t strike me as a mentally tough guy.  I could be very wrong about that, but it’s just how he comes off.  So I believe Hitch will either get the most out of him, or get absolutely nothing (which isn’t far off what Looch is giving the team now, though I do believe the effort has been there most nights).  Time will tell.  I know this: the system is better suited for Looch.  Don’t mistake “slower pace” with “slower team”.  And a slower pace with more puck support all over the ice should help Lucic.

 

Caggiula is interesting.  On one hand, he’s a bit of a pest, plays hard, has talent.  But he’s a disaster in his own zone.  He strikes me as a kid who is willing to learn, so I believe he could thrive, and again above pushing buttons and heavy hockey, Hitch is known for being a teacher.  If Caggiula wants to learn and wants to buy in, we could see a big improvement.  But he’s BAD in his own zone at the moment, so it might take some time.

 

But I have another wildcard for you that Hitch could improve with this squad, and it’s the offence.  WHAT?!?!?!?!  Yep.  I’m not calling my shot on it, but the thing I saw with McLellan was attempting to play a style that was just horrendous for creating offence.  I’m not really sure what it was attempting to do, as the main goal was for the forwards to always look to the blueline option.  Problem with that is the Oilers blueline had no threats offensively and so you’d often get a bad shot on goal.  To top it off, often there would be no traffic.  It was pretty obvious to me that while McLellan didn’t have a deep team up front, he wasn’t allowing the players to play with ANY offensive creativity.  When I think of Hitch’s teams, while offensive creativity doesn’t come to mind, manufacturing goals is something his teams will do.  They cycle it to death, and often get the puck to the slot whether it be a D-man pinching in or someone rotating off the cycle once the opportunity is there.  That means the Oilers will likely be getting the pucks to their best offensive players more often and in better shooting positions.  The PP may also get better, though in Hitch’s last two stops (St. Louis and Dallas) it was in the bottom 12 both years.  It’s at 20.3% right now, but what might be a big improvement for it is the Chris Wideman acquisition made yesterday.  Remains to be seen if they’ll use him as more than a number seven guy, to me he should be a lock for their number six every night and send Gravel back down (since he no longer has to clear waivers).  If Wideman does get in regularly, he better be on top PP unit in place of Klefbom.  He moves the puck quicker than Klefbom, more mobility, and he’s a righty shot.  He’s just a much better fit for it.

 

Another big one I have yet to hit on is Nuge, but I don’t see Nuge improving much just because he plays the way Hitch loves already.  Maybe the system suits his game better too?  But I wouldn’t look for much improvement.  If anything, I could see his offensive stats droping a little, but he grows even more defensively and maybe he’s the new David Backes or Radek Faksa AKA Selke candidate?  Don’t get me wrong, I’m not betting on it.  Just throwing it out there as something to watch for.

 

Of course when it comes to 97, we know what he’s going to do.  No, his offensive game isn’t going to take this big hit.  No doubt that his defensive game could improve some, but his offensive game won’t suffer.  The latest guy to play under Hitch who was similar to McDavid was Seguin.  His numbers went UP last season.  Jamie Benn’s numbers also went UP last season.  97 will be just fine.

 

Two guys I have no issue saying they’re done are Ryan Spooner and Ty Rattie.  Both kids play nothing the way the new coach wishes.  The latter of course already had many chances to play for him in St. Louis and never could break through.  The former I was really high on the Oilers getting, but I can’t see him fitting in knowing how soft he plays.  You have to either have a well rounded game, or have the ability to have a well rounded game.  Both of those guys are undersized, not overly fast, a little soft, and not good away from the puck.

 

Ok.  FINALLY I’ve come to the big key to all of this.  The player who I see improving the most.  The player who McLellan badly failed with.  The player who I believe is going to thrive playing for Hitch.  It’s Jesse Puljujarvi.

 

Hearing Chiarelli’s comments in the aftermath of all this, it became clear to me that Puljujarvi’s handling played a large part in the decision to make the change.  Chiarelli sounded as though he made sure that Hitch is going to work with the 20 year old Fin and give him a real chance to play.  Is he his Tarasenko?  You would scoff at that, and I’m by no means expecting THAT.  But let me ask you this: Who was the better player at 20 years old?  Puljujarvi is.  What has Tarasenko done since Hitchcock left, which was supposed to be a change that would see his game take right off?  Word is that Doug Armstrong might be ready to deal him.

 

Puljujarvi dominated in his quick AHL stint.  Dominated.  Whether he pops on this call-up (which as of writing this he has yet to be recalled but according to Stauffer it’ll be coming soon), I don’t know.  But Hitch is an analytics guy, and I have little doubt he’s going to see Puljujarvi’s goal share with McDavid and give him a legit chance in that spot.

As per a request: McDavid's GF% with and without his most common line mates since 2016 started (100 min+ 5v5 together). The with and without are only calculated for games in which both players appeared. Sorted by GF% together. Data courtesy of @NatStatTrick pic.twitter.com/Lsxi3Vipia

— Woodguy (@Woodguy55) November 17, 2018

So, McLellan was refusing to give the guy at the top of that list a chance?  He gave the guy 2nd on that list two months of a dog shit performance on the top PP unit in 16-17 before he finally caved and took him off it, but the guy who produces best with McDavid gets jerked around all season and eventually they have to demote him due to the coach not playing him?  This one has serious potential to be a massive black eye on McLellan moving forward.  He hated Puljujarvi, at least this season he sure did.  Apologists want to talk about how McLellan had nothing to work with, yet maybe his fourth and fifth most skilled players entering the season looked like nothing playing for him.  Hitch is going to work with Puljujarvi, because Hitch will see the potential to be the type of player he adores.  And it wasn’t just Puljujarvi and Yamamoto who have struggled offensively under McLellan.  Taylor Hall had a brutal 2nd half of the 15-16 season, Eberle digressed in his 2nd season under him, Lucic has fallen off a cliff, and I’m not saying these are on McLellan but it’s very noteworthy.  Probably on the players, but that is a pretty big list of talented guys.  Hell, even think of a kid like Caggiula.  You can see the offensive ability in his game, and yet offensively he’s never taken a step.

 

So Puljujarvi is the key.  Because if Hitch starts to tap into that potential then it completely changes the dynamic of the team.  All of a sudden you have the winger for 97, and you can deploy 29 and 93 accordingly.  Or maybe he loads up the top line even more?  Currently constructed, this Oilers team in my mind is as good as the Stars were last year.  Three stars up front, an ok but not great blueline, and real good TALENT between the pipes.  And while they didn’t make the playoffs in the end, tougher division and the Ben Bishop injury really killed them late in the season.  This Oilers team compared to the 2011-12 St. Louis Blues is head and shoulders above them in talent.  The Blues maybe had a bit more depth at the time, but nowhere near the skilled guys or the talent between the pipes.  If Puljujarvi gets rolling, it’s going to make one hell of a difference.

 

Do not get ANY of this twisted.  It doesn’t absolve anyone of anything.  Chiarelli has still been a bad GM, the OBC still BADLY need to go, I’m not singing their praises just because one possible season saving change was made.  But credit where credit is due, this has potential to be a hell of a good move!  The fit for the players, the fit with the assistants, the fit for the organization, the fit for the city, it’s an all around terrific fit.  And while I slag on how McLellan gets pretty badly overrated by people, it’s not as though he’s the only coach who is just ok.  The league is littered with them.  So there was no point in firing him to hand it over to Gulutzan on an interim basis.  Maybe you get a jolt for 10-15 games, but it’ll probably back to status quo after.  Hitch is an elite coach.

 

I’m probably making this sound better than it is or will be.  Best case scenario with all of these things.  I get it.  I really don’t feel that everything is going to work out amazingly as I likely just made it sound.  All I’m saying is I see SOME improvement coming for most, and basically we’ll see the team we saw over the first 11 games more consistently.  It’s his type of team (which was another thing I heard multiple media members say it wasn’t…sure…).  Hitch needs to coach up some guys without a doubt, but he’s the guy to do it.  I see them getting back to bullying teams with heavy hockey much like they did in 16-17, much improved defensive play, and rarely getting out coached.  Combine that with a very weak Pacific division, and I feel pretty damn comfortable predicting…barring injuries…the Oilers will get in the top three in the division.  Not an accomplishment to be all that proud of in McDavid’s 4th season, and doesn’t absolve anyone for any of the shit that’s gone on.  But it’s a great move that will likely save their season, so at least it’s a start.

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

Like the fan page on Facebook

Follow me on Instagram @Soups_on_Hockey

Todd McLellan got on the plane yesterday, and is in San Jose along with the rest of the Edmonton Oilers as we start our day today.  I’m not sure I’ve ever felt so sick about someone keeping their job then I was with this.  I’m not a bad person and don’t wish for anyone to lose their job, but it has just become crystal clear that Todd McLellan isn’t too good of a coach by NHL standards and maybe more so is the flat out wrong coach for the Oilers.  Yet that’s what he’ll be at least for one more evening.

 

I’m not sure what the hold up is here quite frankly.  Lost 6 of 7, going on the road for 3 massive games, is management waiting for the season to be completely lost?!  I’ll get back to them, but for now I’ll stick with McLellan.  He badly needs to be fired.  I brought up on the podcast the last time around that Todd McLellan tries to act a lot like Mike Babcock.  This has been a similar problem with former Bill Belichick coaches is that they try to act like Belichick but don’t try to coach like Belichick, they just copy his mannerisms.  Matt Patricia for example keeps a pencil in his ear like Belichick…he never uses it as his sheets are all laminated.  McLellan emulates his former boss in his pressers, in his body language on the bench, with his “I’m firm but fair” approach towards his players.  That’s great, but Mike Babcock’s biggest key to his success is his ability to adapt and be open minded.  Babcock has won now with three different organizations in three different ways (I know it’s only two, but it’s going to happen with the third whether you loathe them or not).  He took a talentless team to game 7 of the final, he won a Cup and went to game 7 of the final with a team that had a ton of high end skill and veterans, and when he takes the Leafs on at least a deep run and likely wins a Cup with them he’ll have done it started right from scratch with mostly kids on his roster.  Todd McLellan in the meantime continues to have his teams get pucks in deep, funnel it to the point, and go hard to the net.  He refuses to trust or attempt to develop any of his highly skilled kids.  He openly admits he tries to win 2-1 games.  Todd, look around the league.  Look at who is winning.  Those teams aren’t trying to play 2-1 hockey anymore brotha.

 

As for who should take over, Joel Quennville….ain’t happening.  Simply put, there are no ties to Quennville in the organization.  I’d be happy if that’s who they went out and got, but I HIGHLY doubt it.

 

If I had to guess what would happen if or when Todd McLellan is let go, I would say Glen Gulutzan will be promoted to interim head coach with it being a legitimate audition to become the permanent head coach, which I’m not sure ever works long term.  But that’s what I see happening, with Gulutzan perhaps adding a new assistant to the new staff.  What would I do?  Well my solution goes well beyond the head coach, but what I will say is that their are certain qualities I would look for.  One would be the ability to keep his team loose.  Playing in Edmonton, these players are tight enough as is thanks to how crazy this fan base is and how much media attention they have.  It’s a fishbowl.  So they need someone who will keep the team playing loose and keep things positive, though not simply patting players on the back non stop like Ralph Kruger did for example.  They need that, and they need someone who understands today’s game.  Today’s game has become very difficult to defend, and there for you need to take advantage of that and allow your highly skilled players to use that skill.  They also need someone who is open minded and there for can adapt.  Now, who that coach is, I don’t know.  I have guys in mind, but I would have to interview the coach and I don’t see that happening anytime soon.  But I’d want those three things, and then I would want to know what he plans on his entire staff looking like because an underrated part of coaching in all sports to me is the ability to identify the right people to work with you.

 

But the problem with a coaching change is that Peter Chiarelli is still GM…right?

 

Before I get rolling here, note to “yeah, but…” guy in Oiler land (there are a few of them) who want to tell people that the actual problem is Peter Chiarelli.  Guys, just because people are saying Todd McLellan needs to go doesn’t mean most didn’t realize Chiarelli needed to go long ago.  In fact I’d say MOST, if not all Oilers fans had their fill of Chiarelli before the start of last season.  I know for me, I HATED the Griffin Reinhart trade, HATED the Taylor Hall trade (even though I understood a bit more at least what the logic was with it), felt sick about the Milan Lucic contract (was pumped about the player but the contract was worrisome right from the get go), HATED the Jordan Eberle trade (not trading Eberle, but for the return of Ryan Strome), HATED the Kris Russell contract, HATED the pointless Benoit Pouliot buyout, HATED the pointless Eric Gryba buyout, man that is such a long list of awful.  Anyway, if you’re taking to Twitter and pointing out how he’s ACTULLY the problem like you’ve figured it out and nobody else has, who thinks he’s doing a good job?!  That’s not too original boys.  And if you’re bragging about an article you wrote a year ago on Chiarelli’s terrible moves that was three months old AT THE TIME, you’re really a schmuck and not helping The Athletic get more subscriptions…no names mentioned…

 

Yes, Chiarelli needs to go too.  But the reason most are hot about McLellan right now is A) Chiarelli likely isn’t going to go anywhere right now, and B) while the roster has been royally fucked up from what it could be, it’s still a team that can make the playoffs in the worst division in hockey.

 

I’ve actually begun to wonder how much of the big moves have actually been Chiarelli’s doing?  And stay with me here because I’m not meaning to be an apologist for him.  But in the last year, we’ve started to hear things leak out that make Chiarelli look more innocent in all of this.  The infamous “red wine meetings”.  Mike Liut did the latest 31 Thoughts podcast.  For those who aren’t aware, Liut is Leon Draisaitl’s agent, and he gave a little insight to the contract negotiations.  He talked about the analytics Chiarelli was using which were right in line with the analytics a lot of Oilers bloggers were pointing to as to why Draisaitl was undeserving of a contract North of 7 million per season.  Yet…he got 8.5?  So it looks like Chiarelli was right in line with the thinking of others, yet Draisaitl still got the overpay?  Of course when it comes to the Griffin Reinhart trade, while I admit I often throw it in when pissing on Chiarelli, I know that wasn’t his trade.  That was very clearly done by the old regime.  Did he sign off on it?  At the time I would have said he did because we had been led to believe he had the final say on all decisions.  Yet as time has gone on, it hasn’t seemed as though he has.  With the Hall trade, I’ve never heard anything about Peter Chiarelli having ANY issue with Taylor Hall and Hall has admitted since that he was stunned by the trade in large part because his talks with Chiarelli were so positive.  But what do we know?  What we know is that before Chiarelli arrived there were a TON of rumours that people in management had a big issue with Hall.  You also have the Todd McLellan hiring.  I’ve said this before and will say it again, Elliotte Friedman has gone on the record (he could have better information now, but this was the day Babcock was hired) that he believed Mike Babcock wanted the Edmonton job when he initially stepped down in Detroit, but the Oilers went with McLellan anyway…who was heavily rumoured to be the next coach of the Oilers well before Chiarelli was ever brought in.  If Babcock did want the Oilers job, no chance that wouldn’t have been relayed to the Oilers.  And most sane people would want Mike Babcock and spare me on how the Oilers wouldn’t have gave him the same contract the Leafs did, yes they would have.  If this organization has done one thing right since Darryl Katz took over it’s that they haven’t been cheap.

 

So let’s take a minute to add it all up.  A lot of these moves gone horribly wrong have deeper roots than Peter Chiarelli as GM of the team, and does it make sense that he just plainly sees things the exact same way as his predecessor’s did?  I’ll add it for you and give you the answer: nope.  I’m not saying Chiarelli is now all of a sudden blameless in all of this.  I believe the Eberle trade/Russell signing that was simultaneous was very likely all him.  Lucic?  That one is tougher to say because while he had his history with Looch, it was also well known that the people above him were craving the Oilers to get really big and really tough.  And I have no doubt that Chiarelli was on board for the vision of the team to be big and tough.  But the more I give it thought, and the more word leaks out about what goes on in management, it doesn’t really add up to being simply Chiarelli’s doing.  Not at all blameless, and should be axed, but don’t you want to get to the root of the problem as an Oilers fan rather than just wash, rinse, repeat?

 

I want to go back to what I said about the desire of not just Chiarelli but the organization to get bigger and tougher.  In doing so, the Oilers showed how little they knew there team.  For a long time, the Oilers without a doubt got pushed around as much or more than any other team in the league.  No doubt the team toughness had to greatly improve.  But while they were so caught up in that, it was completely lost on them how slow they were.  That was the biggest fundamental flaw with the Oilers through the “rebuild” is that they were small AND slow.  While they were labelled as this young and exciting team, they weren’t.  They were small and slow.  They had kids like Eberle, Sam Gagner, Nail Yakupov, David Perron for a short period of time, all under 6’0 and all poor skaters for their size.  Someone is bound to point out that Yak was speedy, which I don’t disagree with, but where you’re missing it is that Yak needed about nine or ten steps to get up to top speed.  That hurt his ability to play fast.  Anyway, by 2016 it was clear in the league that speed was the big thing, and the league in about a three year span had taken a massive leap in speed (which we continue to see now).  I wrote about it after the season how the Oilers better be careful not to sacrifice their speed because it was becoming a speed league, they weren’t an overly fast team, but had two elite skaters to build around in McDavid and Hall.

 

This isn’t me talking out my ass, I believe Stauffer has mentioned it before that it wasn’t a Chiarelli thing but rather an organizational decision to get much bigger and tougher.  But yet, those people above Chiarelli, they aren’t even to blame.  Kevin Lowe (whom we were told had no more say in hockey matters as of April, 2015), Craig MacTavish, Wayne Gretzky, and Bob Nicholson.  Sure, these people all seem to have a much bigger say into things than they should, but it’s not on them either.

 

All of these guys in the organization have a lot of blame.  McLellan isn’t a good coach and there is no reason to keep him.  A coaching change will likely give this squad a short term spark that they need.  The season isn’t lost yet, they’re capable of making the playoffs (especially in the Pacific).  But a change behind the bench is badly needed.  However, that’s the short term.  Big picture, Chiarelli needs to go too.  Even if Chiarelli was more of a puppet for the brass, he still has overpaid in trades, overpaid for free agents or on extensions, been careless with things like buyouts and handing out NTC’s, he’s done a terrific job with the amateur scouting staff he’s put together but you need to do more.  And then the OBC drinking their red wine, for shit like that to leak out and especially the talks of them holding the proverbial gun to McLellan’s head is a complete disgrace.  Have those talks, sure.  They’re getting leaked to the fucking national media!??  What is wrong with people in this organization?!  But no, still, it isn’t the fault of any of these people.  The Edmonton Oilers problem is Daryl Katz.

 

Since taking ownership in the summer of 2008, Katz has done little to help this organization on the ice.  It’s my understanding (Elliotte Friedman has stated this before) that Katz stays out of hockey matters.  That’s good to know, because most owners in pro sports love to meddle.  But those people I mentioned in the last paragraph, none of them should have any say as to what goes on in Edmonton, and they do.  They do because A) Rumour is that Katz can’t fire people (Bob McCowan has made mention of this on Prime Time Sports in the past), and B) Katz is still a fan boy for the 80’s teams and clearly loves having those guys around as his buddies.  WAKE THE FUCK UP!!!  Hell, the man doesn’t even have to fire those guys, but cut their balls off already!  Quit giving them any kind of say as to what goes on here!  He’s had Kevin Lowe around this entire time and it’s clear that Lowe has no clue what he’s doing.  I had a good chat about Lowe with my psychologist (a sentence I never thought I’d say) yesterday before my session began and he talked about how the big thing that he believes gets in Lowe’s way is his ego.  Not earth shattering news I know, but Lowe seems more worried about protecting his ego than he is about the hockey team, which is why it’s such an “old boys club” with the Oilers.  He doesn’t want anyone in power who can look better than he does or anyone who he can’t get the ear of.  I’m sure Lowe doesn’t realize this is what he’s doing, but he is.  He sees it as competitiveness, but in reality he has to prove that he can put a winner together, and he can’t.  But that’s not Lowe’s fault, it’s the man who employs Lowe refusing to recognize things such as this and make a change.

 

If the Edmonton Oilers are EVER going to get out of this hell hole they’re in, they have to make massive changes and completely clean house.  More analytics input, more sports science input, continue to improve the amateur scouting, improve the developing, really improve the pro scouting, create an organizational identity, bring in a coach and coaching staff who are on the same page as the GM.  If Katz wants to actually build an elite team, he needs to clean house.  Basically I’m saying…grow a fucking set Daryl.  The longer he doesn’t, the longer it’s clear he’s picking his buddies over winning.  Which is his right, he owns the team.  But then fans should stop paying for the product, and Connor McDavid should be demanding a trade.  And I’m starting to get really worried that a McDavid trade demand is coming.

 

He’s not an idiot.  Edmonton is already a small market that is pretty undesirable for a hockey player.  And this is coming from an Oilers fan, someone who grew up in Northern Alberta.  I don’t like saying it because I love it here.  But it’s the truth, and Katz more than anyone needs to wake up to this reality.  Sure, he has McDavid on an eight year contract, but if McDavid wants out then Katz is going to have the NHL, the NHLPA, the media, and fans of 30 other teams breathing down his neck to trade him for the good of the player and the good of the league.  I’m not rocking the fan goggles on this one, I would not blame McDavid for one second if he request’s to get out of this mess.  He deserves so much better than this shit show Katz has not only created, but continued to allow.

 

As an Oilers fan, it’s disgusting what CONTINUES to go on here.  The Oilers should be as setup or even better than the Leafs are right now.  Instead, the Leafs, without a lot of the assets the Oilers had, have blown right past them and are the NHL’s next big thing while the Oilers are struggling to stay at .500…STILL.  This owner is going to either cost the fan base it’s most treasured asset since Gretzky, or he’s going to cost a generational talent a lot of amazing years in his career because he doesn’t have the balls to clean house.  Daryl Katz, I know you’ll never read this, nor will many others because I don’t have much of a voice, but wake the fuck up man.  Wake the fuck up.  McLellan is in San Jose coaching what has now reverted back to your laughing stock of a team.  Why?  Because your GM won’t fire him.  And why is that?  Because he has a bunch of jack asses above him who also have a say in matters.  And why is that?  Because you, Daryl Katz, need to grow a set of balls and clean house.  You’ve had several chances to do it, and you either never do it or kind of do it or claim you’ve done yet really haven’t.  ENOUGH.  Buy new friends, you have the money to do so.

 

Denzel Washington’s character “Alonzo” in the movie Training Day asked “you wanna go to jail or you wanna go home?”  I want to ask Daryl Katz “you want McDavid to ask for a trade or you wanna win Cups?”

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

Like the fan page on Facebook

Follow me on Instagram @Soups_on_Hockey