I say this way too often to kick these picks off, but are we SERIOUSLY at week 15 already?! Unbelievable. What is even more unbelievable is how bleepin’ difficult it has been this season to make picks. 1-4 last week, back down to 8 games under .500. Time to accept that I’m not having a winning season. 62% is a thing of the past, and this is the new reality. I LOVE my picks this week, but I have loved them a lot this season and looked like a fool in the process, so with that said here we go.
Buffalo at Jacksonville
The Jags are hot?!?!?!?! Something I never thought I would say this season. This team looked 0-16y bad in the first half of the season! This team was a 27.5 point dog!! And here they are looking for their 5th win on the year, 4th in a row, and I’m picking them this week. Now I did pick them in a few games earlier in the year, only to be crushed. But they have had 10 days off, are hot, and are home underdogs. The Bills will play hard and they are on the right track with their rebuild, but I like the Jags to pull the upset here.
Chicago at Cleveland
Home dogs are the theme of this week no doubt. The Bears are coming off a short week, I think there is a bit of controversy with the Bears going back to Cutler after Josh McCowan has been so good as the Bears starter, and the Browns have played hard this season. I think you add all those things up and you will get a Browns team that will pull off the slight upset in this game.
San Francisco at Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay +5.5
Another home dog. I love the Bucs this week for the same reason I’ll like the Giants. West coast team travelling hurts, playing the Seahawks last week hurts, and the Bucs have a decent team who were hot until they ran into an even hotter Carolina team. This week, I’m betting the Bucs keep this game tight. A little surprised it isn’t a bigger number than 5.5, but that just makes me think even more so that the sharps are on the Bucs here.
Seattle at NY Giants
NY Giants +7
I like this even more than the Bucs/Niners game. The Seahawks as we all know aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home. They are similar to another team that I’m betting against in the next selection. But anyway, for the reasons I gave above about the Niners going to Tampa, the Seahawks going East, having played a tough game against San Fran, and Eli is the type of QB that I believe will get the job done against the Seahawks. I believe the Giants rise up in this one and keep it tight, maybe even pull the upset.
New Orleans at St.Louis
I told you that I’m LOVING the home dogs this week!! I don’t think I’ve ever picked 5 home underdogs in 1 week and Vegas might get a lot of money on these road dogs from inexperienced bettors because road dogs have bucked the trend somewhat this season. But again, I know the Saints are a dome team and this is in a dome despite being a road game, but the last time the Saints went to St.Louis the Rams destroyed them as I recall. The Rams won’t destroy the Saints in this one, but on the road, playing a team with a tough D, having just played 2 games against D’s that will beat you up, and another big game next week to look ahead to, no way do the Saints cover the spread here. The Rams will make life miserable for the Saints in this one.
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