NFL Picks – Week 15

 

I say this way too often to kick these picks off, but are we SERIOUSLY at week 15 already?!  Unbelievable.  What is even more unbelievable is how bleepin’ difficult it has been this season to make picks.  1-4 last week, back down to 8 games under .500.  Time to accept that I’m not having a winning season.  62% is a thing of the past, and this is the new reality.  I LOVE my picks this week, but I have loved them a lot this season and looked like a fool in the process, so with that said here we go.

 

Buffalo at Jacksonville

Jacksonville +2

The Jags are hot?!?!?!?!  Something I never thought I would say this season.  This team looked 0-16y bad in the first half of the season!  This team was a 27.5 point dog!!  And here they are looking for their 5th win on the year, 4th in a row, and I’m picking them this week.  Now I did pick them in a few games earlier in the year, only to be crushed.  But they have had 10 days off, are hot, and are home underdogs.  The Bills will play hard and they are on the right track with their rebuild, but I like the Jags to pull the upset here.

 

Chicago at Cleveland

Cleveland +1

Home dogs are the theme of this week no doubt.  The Bears are coming off a short week, I think there is a bit of controversy with the Bears going back to Cutler after Josh McCowan has been so good as the Bears starter, and the Browns have played hard this season.  I think you add all those things up and you will get a Browns team that will pull off the slight upset in this game.

 

San Francisco at Tampa Bay

Tampa Bay +5.5

Another home dog.  I love the Bucs this week for the same reason I’ll like the Giants.  West coast team travelling hurts, playing the Seahawks last week hurts, and the Bucs have a decent team who were hot until they ran into an even hotter Carolina team.  This week, I’m betting the Bucs keep this game tight.  A little surprised it isn’t a bigger number than 5.5, but that just makes me think even more so that the sharps are on the Bucs here.

 

Seattle at NY Giants

NY Giants +7

I like this even more than the Bucs/Niners game.  The Seahawks as we all know aren’t the same team on the road as they are at home.  They are similar to another team that I’m betting against in the next selection.  But anyway, for the reasons I gave above about the Niners going to Tampa, the Seahawks going East, having played a tough game against San Fran, and Eli is the type of QB that I believe will get the job done against the Seahawks.  I believe the Giants rise up in this one and keep it tight, maybe even pull the upset.

 

New Orleans at St.Louis

St.Louis +6.5

I told you that I’m LOVING the home dogs this week!!  I don’t think I’ve ever picked 5 home underdogs in 1 week and Vegas might get a lot of money on these road dogs from inexperienced bettors because road dogs have bucked the trend somewhat this season.  But again, I know the Saints are a dome team and this is in a dome despite being a road game, but the last time the Saints went to St.Louis the Rams destroyed them as I recall.  The Rams won’t destroy the Saints in this one, but on the road, playing a team with a tough D, having just played 2 games against D’s that will beat you up, and another big game next week to look ahead to, no way do the Saints cover the spread here.  The Rams will make life miserable for the Saints in this one.

 

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NFL Picks – Week 14

 

Here is a shock…3-2 in College, 2-3 in NFL.  I’m well beyond annoyed with this season.  And I’ve had 2 big weeks in the last month or so, but it is hopeless to get on any kind of roll.  I got 4 weeks left to put together some sort of streak though.  A hot streak to end the season and I’ll end over .500.  Easier said than done, but here’s hoping this is the start of that hot streak.

 

Detroit at Philadelphia

Detroit +3

The Eagles have home field in the elements against a dome team.  But the Lions are the more more balanced team.  The Eagles aren’t really built to play in the elements either so that actually likely won’t be an advantage for them.  Also working the Lions is they’re playing on 10 days rest, where the Eagles are coming off a game against a pretty physical Cards team.  Really like the Lions in this spot.

 

Kansas City at Washington

Washington +3

I’m doing it again, I’m calling out Vegas for baiting.  No way does it make any sense that the Redskins are only 3 point dogs in this game.  The odds makers know something here that we don’t, there is black ice on this road so just turn the vehicle around and head home!  I don’t see any reason at all here as to why this line isn’t Washington +7, and when it is that blatant then more often than not, Vegas is looking for you to fall for it.

 

Minnesota at Baltimore

Baltimore -6

Just 6?  Maybe this game is just like the Redskins game, but 6 points is enough in my mind to be out of “suspicious” range.  Minnesota is terrible, it’s a dome team playing outdoors in December, the Ravens just had 10 days off just like the Lions, and this Ravens D has turned into what a lot of people suspected it could be going into week 1 before they got shelled by Peyton Manning.  They’re one of the best in the league and will slow down Adrian Peterson, especially with him being the only threat for the Viks.

 

Seattle at San Francisco

Seattle +2.5

You know all week I’ve been thinking that for sure this would be the game where the Seahawks drop their 2nd of the season.  As much as I point out the flaws this team has, Russell Wilson is special and a special QB can cover up a TON of warts.  I still think those issues and more so the organization not addressing them will come back to bite them in the ass, but the Niners simply haven’t been good this season.  It really isn’t close between these two teams right now.  I also believe that if you have a D that makes Colin Kaepernick think, he can’t do it.  To beat this D I believe you need to be able to process the game at an elite level, and even then it is tough (see Drew Brees).  San Fran has only beat 1 team with a winning record this season (although Green Bay would have one if Rodgers were healthy).  Even on a short week the Seahawks I believe take it outright.

 

Carolina at New Orleans

Carolina +3.5

I’m starting to become a believer in the Panthers, but this is a tricky game to pick.  On one hand, the Saints are incredible at home, and the Panthers D hasn’t had to go against an offense like this.  But on the other hand, the Saints are coming off a game against a Seahawks team who beat teams up, and they played on Monday night so they’re on short rest.  It’s another case of that half point being the key.  Panthers can give that field goal and that is key so I’ll take the Panthers to keep this one tight.

 

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New World Order

 

I’m a guy who always loves to look at different angles when it comes to sports stories.  I don’t know if I’m good at it or not, but I try to take a different angle/approach to things.  I’m big on going the opposite way.  When everyone zigs, I zag.  Well this time I don’t know that I’m going against the grain with this opinion, but I sure as heck haven’t heard anyone else bring up this comparison.

 

bettman
Rogers and the NHL announced their new 12 year, 5.2 billion dollar partnership to the shock of just about everyone in Canada.

In the midst of an out and out media war in this country between Rogers and Bell right now, Rogers steps up to the plate with a 5.2 billion dollar bombshell this week and acquires full control over the NHL broadcasting rights in Canada.  It is ground breaking, it is a huge blow to TSN, it’s a blow to Hockey Night in Canada (despite what the people at Rogers are pimping right now), and it got a little disgusting how much the people at Sportsnet were patting themselves on the back this week, but you really can’t blame them.

 

 

 

Now, I doubt they make money off of it.  But the thing is, its not about the advertising dollars for Rogers.  If they make money, that’s a bonus.  I don’t believe the networks that have the NFL in the US make money off of it.  The reason they pay so much to get the broadcasting rights is to promote your other programing.  Rogers will benefit this way with the NHL, but this is about Rogers building towards having a monopoly in this country.  By no means are the people at Bell Media saints.  But you really do get the sense that Rogers goal is to eliminate Bell.

 

I keep thinking about that commercial for FX and how at the very end of it they say “not available on Bell”.  Its like they go out of their way to point that out.  Thanks Rogers, but the shows are available in many other ways (iTunes, CinemaNow, anyone who has American Netflix), so really you don’t NEED to get FX like they want you to believe.  I watch Sons of Anarchy and The League on iTunes, I’ll gladly stick with Bell TV thanks.

 

But I truely believe that THIS is the ultimate goal for Rogers, and I’ve never got the sense that Bell is looking to do that to Rogers.  The philosophy seems to be if you can hurt your opposition than that’s good.  They’ll be weakened and fade and eventually there will only be Rogers.  So with that said, if you have seen the WWE documentary “The Monday Night War”, then you know what I’m comparing this to.

 

In that they interview Vince McMahon obviously, and he says that he believed that was Turner’s approach to running WCW.  When WCW began being run by Eric Bishoff in the mid 90’s, he started acquiring as much talent as he possibly could.  He threw huge money at everyone.  Money was no object to Turner.  Then they brought in Monday Nitro to go head to head with the then WWF’s Monday Night Raw.  Everything WCW did was in an attempt to run the WWF out of business.

 

Rogers is WCW, they are Turner.  And the other part of this is that WCW never put on as good of a show as WWF did, not even close.  Well Sportsnet doesn’t do hockey anywhere near as good as TSN does.  I don’t know anyone who prefers Sportsnet to TSN.  Sportsnet doesn’t have the play by play men as of now to do national games, although I’m sure now that they own HNIC that they’ll at least try hard to have Hughson and Simpson do their national games.  Need more than 1 good team though.  TSN have 1 and a half great teams doing their games, and I’m sure most can stomach Mike Johnson when having either Gord Miller or Chris Cuthbert doing a game.

 

So needless to say, I’m pretty skeptical about this situation.  The NHL didn’t care about anything else here other than the cash, and frankly you can’t blame them.  And you can’t blame Rogers for backing the Brinks truck up to the NHL’s head offices in New York.  The fans in Canada will watch no matter what.  But what will likely start happening is that Rogers will look to screw anyone who isn’t a Rogers customer in an attempt to get them to switch to their products.  Phones, digital cable, anything Rogers will give fans the best programming available.

 

Meanwhile, I suspect strongly that what they’re doing with HNIC and only having their deal for 4 years is they will slowly shift things to Sportsnet and City TV so that when they do pull the plug on CBC in 4 years there won’t be the out cry from the public that there would be if they did it now.  Also, I’m betting pretty good money that over the next 12 years they look to take all their Sportsnet channels off of Bell TV.  The company line right now from all the Sportsnet guys is telling the public how great this is going to be for the fans.  Sounds like a sales job to me right now.  They realize fans in this country prefer there games on TSN and CBC.

 

I said to a few of my buddies when this deal was announced that this was a dark, dark day for NHL fans in this country.  If you want to see more games in this country you already can, it’s called the Center Ice package.  Scott Moore is already talking about how the fans will need to pay extra to get all the games they will broadcast, and they now own the Center Ice package and will be the distributers of it.  Not good for those of us (48% of the country, likely 80% of Western Canada) who don’t have Rogers.

 

Its the same feeling I had when I was a die hard wrestling fan as a kid.  WCW started taking things over and even at their peak it just never felt right, and it nearly killed the WWF.  They never did things anywhere near as good as the WWF.  I really hope that I’m wrong about all this and things actually turn out to be great, but I clearly have major doubts about that.

 

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