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Last Night We Saw the Greatest…Everything

Ummmmm…WOW!!  For three quarters I was thinking “not like this”.  I don’t have a rooting interest, and especially in the Super Bowl all I’m pulling for is a great game, and whatever I bet.  So I had the Falcons +3 as some of you may know, and I had the over of 57.5.  Oh, and then I also wrote this yesterday:

“this is likely going to be a classic.  I’m going to be disappointed if this game is anything less than high scoring and down to the wire.  Two great QB’s, historic ramifications, it would be just a little short of shocking if these two didn’t produce a great game.”

So needless to say, I was extremely disappointed with how the game was going.  But by the time it was done I was giddy, and couldn’t believe how amazing the game was that I just seen.  It exceeded my expectations, which as you just read, were extremely high!

 

Just a heads up here, you’re going to read the word greatest and great A LOT in this piece!

 

I’m saying it right now, and I’m sure all the “hot take” have said it since about last Monday, but this was the greatest Super Bowl of all time.  A lot of the time it’s the 4th quarter that’s great and people want to make the game out to be better than it was.  That was Super Bowl XLIII.  The 4th quarter in that game was amazing, but the game as a whole really wasn’t too good.  The year before with Super Bowl XLII, you had the amazing upset by the Giants, the Tyree catch, 19-0 on the line, but the reality was that the first three quarters were really boring.

 

You could say that here, but it was different.  Because for three quarters last night, it wasn’t BORING, it was massively shocking!  As I said off the top, you just couldn’t believe that the Pats would go out like THAT.  So the shocker of how the game was going, how much of a struggle it was to get back in the game, the flurry in the last 6 minutes or so of the game, needing two 2 point conversions, the Julio Jones catch, but then the Julien Edelman catch, the OT, high scoring, and of course the drama of Tom Brady going for his record tying 5th Super Bowl title.  Hell, even the half time show is being talked about as the greatest ever!  It was one of those games where you just know it when you see it, and that was the greatest Super Bowl of all time.

 

And it was such a great example of how to approach life.  Sometimes life just starts booting you in the balls for seemingly no reason.  Frankly, that’s been going on with me lately, been a rough go the last week or so.  Happens to everyone, but in the moment you can’t help but wonder “why me?”  Brady wasn’t getting any blocking, which was really hurting his accuracy as he had pressure most of the night, and when he would make a throw he wasn’t getting a lot of help from the Pats receiving core.  Even Julien Edelman dropped one or two.  They were getting their asses handed to them.  And yet he just kept coming.

 

What essentially happened in this football game is that Tom Brady broke the Falcons will.  Even when the Pats were coming back, the Falcons pass rush was still giving the Pats O-line headaches, still getting a ton of pressure and making life miserable for Brady.  The strip-sack was obviously the turning point of the game, but the Falcons were still playing hard, still getting pressure.  But Brady kept coming and you could see the Falcons D start to tire late in the 4th and simply had their will break.  The moment that coin toss came up heads, the game was over.  There was zero need to play the OT.

 

Brady is the greatest ever.  And I know everyone is saying that now, it’s not breaking news.  He was already for me, and for most, but it’s now cemented and I’m still in awe of the accomplishment.  He’s the Michael Jordan of the NFL right now really in that there is no debate.  Seven Super Bowl appearances, five Super Bowl wins, four Super Bowl MVP’s, he is responsible for the two biggest comebacks in Super Bowl history, one of those against one of the greatest defenses of all time, he’ll likely surpass a lot of Peyton Manning’s regular season records in the next few seasons if he stays true to his word that he isn’t retiring anytime soon.  He won when he was young and he’s winning in what should be the twilight of his career.

 

And a lot of this is Bill Belichick without a doubt.  Nobody should forget that factor either, and in a coaches league that is vital.  He is probably the greatest coach now in league history.  Peyton Manning never had Bill Belichick.  John Elway never had Bill Walsh.  Dan Marino, Johnny Unitas, Fran Tarkenton, Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, none of those guys had the type of coaching Brady and Montana had.  But it’s as much a quarterbacks league as it is a coaches league, and we’ll never know how those guys would have done with elite level coaching.  But it’s pointless, because Brady got Belichick, and it’s been maybe the best run of success in the history of sports.

 

Think about this, and I may have said it two years ago but I’m saying it again, this franchise is two of the most clutch and greatest catches of all time away from having won seven Super Bowls.  Seven in the last 16 seasons.  They’ve gone to 10 AFC title games in 16 seasons.  This is incredible.  I know so many average fans just despise them because they hear that Brady is a cheater, Belichick is a cheater, they win all the time, Belichick never smiles, Brady seemingly is the perfect human with the perfect life, so they want to see them lose so badly.  But man, this is legendary stuff we are seeing.  I just don’t get how people can’t appreciate that more than they do.

 

Julio Jones out of all people must really hate this, and he must REALLY hate Julien Edelman in particular!  That catch was awesome considering the situation.  It’s not a rare catch in the league any longer, we see it every week.  But considering the time remaining in what was the biggest game of his life, it was incredible.  The only mistake the Falcons made was the play calling following that catch.  I fully understand and commend Kyle Shanahan and Dan Quinn for going for the kill there, but a field goal was essentially a kill shot there.  Run the ball twice, and perhaps a slant route or screen on third down.  Worst case scenario there is you kick the field goal and the Pats are back down 11.

 

I can’t leave this without looking at next season and the fact of the matter is that now the Pats have a chance to go three in four years for the second time.  This whole thing is a dynasty.  It’s a cap era/new-age dynasty, whatever you wish to call it, but it’s a dynasty.  But they’ll call it another dynasty all itself if the Pats win again next season.  They have seven picks in the draft (not all their’s, but two in the 4th round, no 6th rounder but honestly who cares about a 6th), they currently have the 5th most available cap space this offseason, there is really zero reason they shouldn’t, and if I’m Bill Belichick I’m now in the business of going hard after it.  He’s 65 next season, so he doesn’t have a lot of years left, and Brady may only have one season left, because once that arm goes it goes in a hurry!  So load up now, get that third ring in four years for the second time.  Make some of these benchmarks even more difficult to get to for others.  Hell, chase another perfect season!  It’s literally the only thing left for them to do is go 19-0.

 

I sound like a Patriots fan boy here I know.  Trust me, I’m not.  I’m just a sucker for greatness.  We saw maybe the greatest game of all time.  We saw maybe the greatest coach in league history win his record 5th Super Bowl.  And we saw the greatest QB and likely greatest player period in NFL history have his crowning moment last night with what some may call his masterpiece.

 

Greatest game, greatest coach, greatest player, great night!

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

Super Bowl LI Picks ATS & Over/Under

A whole blog on just one freaking pick?!?  Well, two picks, but only one ATS.  Ok, so first things first, this is likely going to be a classic.  I’m going to be disappointed if this game is anything less than high scoring and down to the wire.  Two great QB’s, historic ramifications, it would be just a little short of shocking if these two didn’t produce a great game.

 

So with that being said, here is what I’m thinking for today.

 

The Falcons are likely the better team here.  But it’s tough to get past the fact that they’re going against Belichick and Brady.  All that experience, all those rings, two weeks for Belichick to prepare, it’s tough to ignore those things as not only the advantages, but the types of advantages that historically, at least in sports, that turn an underdog into a decided favorite (reading me for the first time?  I try to spell “American” when talking NFL).

 

But I believe that is getting very overrated.  The fact is that the Falcons blew out a good Seahawks team, and a Packers team which was the hottest in the league.  The questions about the Falcons being able to handle the pressure have been answered.  Under Mike Smith, this team had a tough time with the pressure.  But this is Dan Quinn’s team, and they have shown no signs all season of not being able to handle the pressure.  Also, they’re playing the Pats.  Maybe against a team playing in their first Super Bowl as a group like themselves the Falcons would have a tendency to buy their press clippings and not know how to deal with everything.  But against the Pats, they know they’ll need everyone going at their best to win so I believe at least from an effort standpoint that the Falcons will be peaking.

 

As for the Pats…

 

Did you know that Bill Belichick against the spread isn’t that great coming off of bye weeks?  I found this interesting, R.J. Bell of pregame.com pulled out this stat on Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 podcast yesterday that Belichick in week one, coming off bye weeks in the regular season and coming off bye weeks in the postseason all combined has a .500 record.  That’s it.  .500.  So for all this mystique about how the amazing Bill Belichick is a monster to deal with coming off bye weeks, that’s all his record is ATS.  So the betting public is drastically overrating that edge.

 

This isn’t to say the Pats can’t win.  Absolutely they can win!  But three points is too many.  I really wish it was 3.5 or 2.5, hence why Vegas is so good at this.  But it’s 3, and I think in the NFL these days with the extra point so difficult we are seeing many more one and two point games.  So betting a game with a spread of three is a lot less risky right now than it was two seasons ago when the EP was a gimme.

 

Then you have the over, and I frankly hate this.  I never win betting the under.  I had the under as my pick and as of writing this part I literally JUST changed my pick, because I literally NEVER win betting the under!  But it worries me.  On one hand, Vegas keeps trying to scare bettors off with these Falcons over/under’s by putting the number sky high.  So that’s my reasoning for the over pick.  But this game hurts offense a lot of the time.  Not every time, but a lot of the time because of the long stoppages, long half time, offense is all about rhythm and it gets hurt badly in this game.  I assume the Falcons know this, and I know the Pats know this, but it’s still scary for me.  But again, I can’t win betting the under!  And let’s be honest, it’s the Super Bowl.  Do you SERIOUSLY want to sit there and pull for points not to be scored?!  Let’s get real.  Sometimes it’s just fun to bet the side you’re pulling for.

 

So I’m guessing if you have read this whole thing already, you know where I’m going with these picks, but I’ll make it official:

Falcons +3

Over 58.5

At the end of the day, these two picks are betting on a classic.  Falcons keep it really tight, I believe this game is a total toss up, I’ll pick the Pats to win 31-29 in what’ll be a top five Super Bowl of all time.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

Conference Championship Picks ATS

Woah!  I’m running LATE on this one, so you read this, go make your picks, enjoy the games basically in one fluent motion because I’m not leaving you much time if you’re using these.  And literally not one person has ever told me they use these picks so I’m not really sure why I write these pieces.  I don’t make any money, I don’t get a big amount of readers, I guess I’m just a tool….a tool who would make you a lot of money if you paid attention…

 

So last weekend was perfect.  Very literally perfect.  4-0 on my picks ATS, and I hit on the over/under pick too.  Now 6-2 ATS in the playoffs, and if you want to include the regular season I’m now 49-39-7 ATS on the season.  Three games to go, so I guess I’m finishing above .500.  I’ll do the over/under picks for both these games too, just so we have more to bet.

 

Green Bay at Atlanta

Packers +4.5

Over 61.5

I don’t have a great feeling about this game either way.  All the analysis points towards the Falcons, but I think people are discounting how well the Packers as a team are playing right now.  The truth is that it isn’t all Aaron Rodgers, this team is getting big contributions all over the field.  People rave about the throw Rodgers made to setup Crosby at the end of the Dallas game, but why in the hell is nobody talking about the catch Jared Cook made on that play?!  That was spectacular!  So giving the Packers 4.5 points is just too many.  I know a lot of the sharp bettors in Vegas disagree with this, but I have to stick to my “pick the best QB” theory that I won big with last weekend.  While I’ve always been a bigger Matt Ryan guy than most, he’s not Aaron Rodgers who is playing at a level right now that maybe nobody in league history has played at.  As for the over, I just really believe Vegas is trying to set it at a number that scares people into betting the under.  I never win betting the under, so over it is!

 

Pittsburgh at New England

Steelers +6

Over 51.5

Everyone seems to be counting the Steelers out.  Antonio Brown has now given the Pats all the motivation in the world, Pats are at home, Steelers aren’t that good, on and on and on.  The Steelers are REALLY talented and as I’ve said all season, this team plays to their opponents.  So they played down to the Dolphins in the wild card game, they’ll play up to the Pats tonight.  Maybe the Pats blow them out, but the smart money for me is on the Steelers here.  They have a legitimate chance to win this football game.  I’m very aware of the Pats record against Mike Tomlin, I’m very aware of the Steelers short comings, but I just love the Steelers here.  As for the over pick, I see it as two elite QB’s facing two average defenses.  Weather this time of year is always a concern, but just ask yourself which is more likely: 24-20, or 31-27?  Take the over.

 

Ok so that’s four picks.  I like giving you five things to bet though, so I have a hockey game I like tonight.  Also, as I’m focusing on doing even more hockey this season, I’m considering doing NHL picks for Saturday nights once the Super Bowl has concluded.  Anyway, here is my first ever NHL pick on the site.

 

Nashville at Minnesota

Predators +110

This is obviously a moneyline pick, not the spread.  Dear gawd I hope you understand that’s not the spread.  Anyway, the Preds are winning this hockey game.  Watched them the two games here in Alberta and they were tremendous and are really making their move up the standings now.  The Wild just played a big and intense game against the Ducks last night, so they’ll be wore out.  Plus, the Preds are simply playing much better hockey right now.  Third game in four nights for them so it’s not as if they’ll be fresh either, but having that day off I just think the Preds are going to pull out the two points tonight.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Divisional Weekend Picks ATS

Divisional round, divisional weekend, I don’t ever know what the f*** to call this weekend.  Wild card weekend, Conference championship weekend, this weekend doesn’t seem to have a proper name.  Anyway, you can figure it out.  It’s my picks against the spread which didn’t do AS bad as they normally do on wild card weekend.  2-2, although 2-3 a loss on the over/under pick.  But normally I get killed on wild card weekend.  There is definitely a trend on wild card weekend in that the games in the last five seasons seem to go either all one way, or all the other.  Anyway, while I normally get crushed on THAT weekend, I normally kick ass on THIS weekend.  Last three seasons I’m 10-2 picking this weekend.  Hopefully that will be a trend that continues.

 

Seattle at Atlanta

Falcons -5.5

This is messed up line, and it keeps moving the opposite way it should be.  I’m looking at this initially and I’m thinking “no WAY the Seahawks being the proven playoff team with the proven playoff QB and still a dominant defense, NO FREAKING WAY should they be 5 point dogs” (now 5.5).  I have to think that Vegas is baiting people into putting their money on the Seahawks.  So even though I had the Seahawks winning this game with my playoff preview, I don’t trust this line at all and am going to bet it the other way here.  I’m expecting a great game here though.

 

Houston at New England

Patriots -16

It’s a monster number, but I just cannot see this going another way.  I think the Texans could come out hard early, make people nervous about this line at the half perhaps being within 3 or 6, but then Belichick will make his adjustments and they’ll run away with it.  Osweiler will get badly exposed in this one, Brady will be able to overcome that good (yet I don’t believe they’re great) Texans defense, and in the end the score won’t be close.

 

Green Bay at Dallas

Packers +4.5

Aaron Rodgers vs a rookie QB.  A damn good rookie QB, but still a rookie QB.  I’m taking Rodgers.  Let’s not forget too that the Packers beat the Cowboys just two seasons ago in Lambeau on this same weekend.  Now you might throw the Dez Bryant disaster at me and say the Cowboys should have won, but you also had Rodgers on essentially one leg playing that game.  There was a lot of worry that Rodgers wouldn’t be able to play in that game going into it.  Yet he still won.  The key here will be the Cowboys defense as it’ll be up to them to at least limit Rodgers early.  If they can, it’ll be tough for the Packers to comeback.  But I don’t think they can.  Even without Jordy Nelson, I just think Rodgers and the Packers are too hot right now for the Cowboys to deal with.

 

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Steelers +1

So basically take the Steelers outright here.  And kind of the same thing here as with the Cowboys v Packers game.  The better TEAM top to bottom are the Chiefs, and I believe they’ll put up a hell of a fight (I think this is going to be a tremendous game).  But in the end, Roethlisberger vs Alex Smith in the playoffs?  I don’t care where the game is, and I know Andy Reid’s record is incredible coming off bye’s, but you have to take Roethlisberger in that scenario.  This is that scenario.  Also, I don’t see who would have an advantage with a storm.  Both teams have great running games, so to me that’s a wash.  But one thing I do like is while I harp on how the Steelers playing up and down to their opponents, I have to believe they’ll be up for this one.

 

Green Bay at Dallas

Over 53.5

If the Packers are going to win, chances are that this line will go over.  It’s that simple.  I’d love to go on and on about it, but that’s what it comes down to.  No weather issues, average defenses, great offenses, it’s a big number but take the over.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks ATS

I f*****g HATE picking games this weekend!!!  The one year I nailed it, I intentionally picked the opposite of what I thought would happen.  Go back and look, I think it was 2014, I intentionally picked the opposite.  So I was finally right, yet went 0-4 because apparently god hates me.  My short legs and fat stomach weren’t enough for you hey bud?!  Like it’s not bad as in I go 2-2-1 or 2-3 every year.  Oh no, it’s pretty consistently 0-4.  So it doesn’t matter what I write here, I am completely f****d picking these games!  So yeah, don’t use these.  Having said all this, somehow I usually recover and win more than I lose in the playoffs.  So it’s literally just this weekend.

 

I did have an ok season.  Six games over .500 with a record of 43-37-7.  Not what I’d deem a success, but had you gone with my picks ATS all year, you would have won a little coin.  Again though, this particular weekend, use these at your own risk!

 

Oakland at Houston

Texans -4

I want to cry every time I think of the Raiders these days.  They were primed to be a serious threat to the Pats in the AFC, back in the playoffs for the first time in 13 years.  That might not be a major gap for some organizations, but the Raiders are NFL royalty.  They’ve had some of the most iconic players and teams in NFL history, and as I always say sports are always better when those teams are winning.  No Derek Carr, no chance.  And the Texans are so boring, with only slightly better quarterbacking than the Raiders without Carr.  The ONE thing that gives me a bit of pause is that Connor Cook is ok.  He’s had all season to learn the playbook, all week to prepare, the Texans won’t have any pro film on him, and he fell in the draft in large part because of his personality, not his talent.  But it’s his first start, against a solid defense, on the road, in the playoffs.  Logically, you just can’t bet this game the other way.

 

Detroit at Seattle

Seahawks -8

Again, just like last week, while I like this Lions team and quite frankly will pull for them in this game, I just do not like the vibe coming from this team.  Matthew Stafford is too dinged up, and he’ll need every bit of zip on his ball he can get against this defense playing in Seattle.  The Seahawks secondary has been noticeably worse (as you’d expect) since Earl Thomas went down.  But Seattle at home in the playoffs, this team just has an invincible kind of feel in that scenario.  I really expect a Seahawks blowout here.

 

Miami at Pittsburgh

Dolphins +11

That’s too many points.  It’s a ridiculous line in my mind.  Sure, any line can be right, but the Dolphins aren’t much different with Matt Moore than they were with Ryan Tannehill.  And even though it’s a playoff game, this Steelers team can be REALLY sleepy, even with it being a must win game.  Look at the Ravens game.  No comparison between those two teams talent wise, and the Steelers were at home, yet they still just barely pulled that one out.  Steelers win, but I believe the Dolphins will surprise and keep this one at least within a TD.

 

NY Giants at Green Bay

Giants +5

Again, this feels like a ridiculous line to me.  Packers should be favored, but only by 2.5 or 3.  Game of the weekend without a doubt.  One of the best offenses vs one of the best defenses, Rodgers vs Manning, two of the most storied teams in NFL history, I said it on Monday that this one has all the ingredients to go down as a classic.  5 points?  Could happen.  But smart money goes on the Giants with that being the number.  I really believe this one will be a field goal either way.

 

NY Giants at Green Bay

Under 44.5

As I just alluded to, I expected this one to be a tight game, and I also expect it to be low scoring.  The Giants D, combined with the Giants offense, combined with brutal temperatures that are expected tomorrow and while I despise taking the under, I just don’t see how you can bet this one any other way.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Year End Hot Takes

Man, it just comes and goes so fast doesn’t it?!  The NFL really runs for half the year, August til February.  But it really doesn’t feel like that, because the regular season only goes 4 months.  In September, with kids going back to school, summer ending, it really starts to feel like the end of the year.  And then by the time we get to the actual end of the year, the NFL’s regular season is done.  WHAT?!  Obviously 4 months isn’t a long time, but I really do think that because of the time of year it takes place that it gives it a feel that it goes by even quicker.  Anyway, for my final hot takes piece of the season I figured instead of hitting on what happened in week 17, I’d instead hit on the season itself.  Some of the shit I got right, only a fraction of the millions of things I got wrong, a little bit on all the coaching changes, things I see happening moving forward for some of the non playoff teams, and a playoff preview/prognostication.

 

16 right.  I had 16 correct guesses (and that’s what they are, because nobody has a freaking clue what injuries will occur over the course of a season) as to whom would finish where in the standings.  Some of my best predictions were the AFC West which I had spot on (though had Derek Carr not got hurt they likely win the division), and while I didn’t go as bold as to pick the Dolphins to make the playoffs I did say in the write up about them to keep an eye on them as they could be the surprise team in the AFC.  I had a surprise team in the NFC.  I’d love to tell you it was Detroit, but it wasn’t.  Instead, it was the 3-13 Chicago Bears.  I said in there that I was taking a major swing and it wasn’t likely, but I still went extremely bold and picked them to get a wildcard spot on the NFC, so I own it.  Even trying to pick safely you get a lot wrong, so why bother?  I don’t do it for show, don’t do it for any clicks, but I’m not afraid to say what I think.

 

The coaching firings or in the case of Denver resignings as of right now are as follows: Gus Bradley (Jac), Jeff Fisher (LA), Rex Ryan (Buf), Chip Kelly (SF), Gary Kubiak (Den), and Mike McCoy (SD).  I don’t expect many more from here out, MAYBE the Colts wise up and clean house, but as of writing this late Sunday night it doesn’t sound like they’re going to do that.  Of the firings, I think Chip Kelly is the most ridiculous, but then again if you’re firing Trent Balke then you should fire Chip Kelly too.  Where they screwed up is Balke should have been gone last year at this time.  I really think Mike McCoy had some shitty luck in San Diego.  I know Bill Simmons kills him, but when he came in how good were they?  Did they seriously underachieve at any point?  9-7 (and a playoff win), 9-7, 4-12, and 5-11 this season with an insane amount of injuries and distractions off the field this season, no coach would have done any better.  It is kind of ironic that he had a season like this right before the team is likely to leave town.  A young Bill Belichick had the exact same thing happen to him.  Not saying McCoy is another Belichick, but I do think if he gets a 2nd chance he could thrive.

 

Bold Prediction: I think we’ll at least start hearing about Cam Newton trade rumors (and for those who don’t know, I spell American when I talk NFL).  I don’t mean rumors that’ll be put on a message board (To Panthers: 2018 2nd, 2019 3rd, 2017 6th.  To 49ers: Cam Newton.  Discuss), I mean serious trade rumors that’ll be discussed on ESPN and NFL Network.  The reason for this “bold prediction” is because divas where out their welcome.  You know that guy or girl you follow on twitter and they won’t stop bitching about shit?  Eventually you just get sick of them bitching and you mute their account (I’m likely one of those people).  I have a feeling that the Panthers are ready to mute Cam Newton’s account so to speak.  They’d need a big return, which is why I’m not calling for a trade to actually happen.  But there are teams who could have the right pieces to make it interesting.  Miami?  Arizona?  Washington?  Maybe I’ll be wrong about it all, but how can they not be getting sick of his act after a season like that?

 

It was a devastating way for the Tennessee Titans to end the season.  Not yesterday with the meaningless win against the Texans, but rather the second Marcus Mariota got hurt.  They were going to be a threat in the AFC playoffs had they got in.  But wow, is that team ever set up to be great moving forward.  Thanks to the move back all the way to 15 (then back up to 8) in last year’s draft, the Titans own the 5th and 18th picks in the first round of the draft.  That’s insane for a football team that likely would have been a playoff team this season and is currently one of the youngest in the league.  With a franchise QB, good O-line, solid pass rush, and playing in a weak division, this organization has a great opportunity to be a dominant over the next few seasons.

 

You know I said this a week or so ago and I really believe it: the Browns have a chance to be real good too, though unlike the Titans this is more of a longer term outlook.  It might not seem that way as they’re at rock bottom and have been at rock bottom since what seems like 1995.  But they have the top pick, they have the 13th pick, and what’ll workout to be the 33rd pick, and the 49th pick.  So four picks in the top 50 of the draft.  That’s a great chance to really rebuild things.  The one thing that they may want to explore here though is waiting a season to take a QB.  You could roll the dice on a project in rounds 3-7, but I’m talking about holding off taking one with those 4 top 50 picks.  The method to this madness is they wait until the projected to be QB rich 2018 draft.  The Browns still aren’t going to be good in 2017, and they have RGIII under contract for one more season.  Build up an excellent roster, then go get your franchise QB.  It will be tempting for them to get one of Mitch Trubisky or Dashone Kizer in this draft as both are expected to be top 10 picks and both are Ohio kids.  But neither guy…at least at this point (a TON changes between now and late April so don’t be calling any shots in the draft right now), neither guy is expected to be in the “elite QB realm”.  Oh, and they are sticking with Hue Jackson and should stick with Hue Jackson.  NFL people are really high on the guy and you can’t have it be a revolving door for your head coaching position.

 

One team I just simply have no faith in moving forward is the Buffalo Bills.  Nobody circles the drain quite like the Buffalo Bills unfortunately.  This was one of my favorite teams growing up.  I don’t have a team in the NFL, but for a while I would tell people it was the Bills (I would always feel dumb if I said I didn’t have one).  This gig is pretty undesirable as they don’t have a franchise QB, they don’t have an elite defense, their best player is likely about to hit the downside of his career.  Another thing to consider is that the Pegula’s have been complete zero’s since entering the pro sports world.  Since Terry Pegula bought the Sabres they’ve been near the bottom of the NHL standings, and since buying the Bills they haven’t gone anywhere either.  Right now they have enough talent to stay out of the top 5 in the draft, and not enough to get them to the playoffs.  Combine that with an old stadium, in a city that already has enough things going against it, and it’ll be up to GM Doug Whaley, who has never made a decent hire, to pull a rabbit out of his hat.

 

Unlike the Bills, some teams do make the playoffs.  So with that being said, here is my NFL playoff preview.

 

First game on the docket is Houston v Oakland.  Neither team has a QB, but the Raiders QB situation is somehow worse than the Texans.  Just absolute horse shit luck for the Raiders after finally getting out of the gutter.  Texans will take what’ll be an awful playoff game to watch.

 

Steelers v Dolphins should be the much better matchup in the AFC.  I THINK the Steelers take this game somewhat comfortably, but they’re a sleepy team.  They play up and down to their opponents and when they played down to what they thought was a bad Dolphins squad back in October they got their asses kicked.  Sure, Roethlisberger got hurt in that game, but the Dolphins were in control even prior to that.  It’s an interesting matchup.

 

I don’t see the Lions having a shot to win in Seattle.  Remember, the Seahawks have god on their side…at least it sure seems that way.  It is insane the bounces this team gets when they need them.  Not sure they’ll need them in this game, but if things are going well for the Lions just don’t sleep on that little fact.  It’s sickening, unless you’re a Seahawks fan.

 

Finally the best matchup of the weekend will be the Packers vs the Giants at Lambeau.  I have to think the Packers keep rolling and take this game, but man this is a juicy matchup.  Great offense vs great defense, two great postseason QB’s, it’s got the ingredients to be a classic.  Can’t wait for it.  Again, I think the Packers take it, but I think this is going to be a tight one all the way.

 

So then we go onto the divisional round, where the Pats will take on the Texans which will be an absolute massacre just like the Pats did to them in week 3 with JACOBY BRISSETT as QB, but we’ll also get a great showdown in KC between the Chiefs and the Steelers.  Looking forward to that possibility.  With the game in KC, I really see it as a pretty even matchup.  On the NFC side, Atlanta and Seattle should be pretty good (Dan Quinn facing Pete Carroll), but the sexiest matchup of that weekend will be Dallas and whichever one of the Packers or Giants they play.  I predicted the Packers, so we’ll say the Packers are who they play.  I already said the Pats beat the Texans, I’ll take the Steelers to squeak by the Chiefs, the Seahawks to knock off the Falcons, and the Packers to pull off the upset in Dallas mainly because despite how great Dak Prescott has been all season I can’t take a rookie QB to win a playoff game.

 

AFC title game would be a dandy between the Pats and Steelers who have combined to win the AFC title 9 times in the last 15 seasons, yet have only met twice in the playoffs in those 15 seasons, and not at all since 2004 (Roethlisberger’s rookie season, not near the QB he has become since).  Anyway, Roethlisberger v Brady is a matchup we’ve waited a long time for in the playoffs.  I would expect this game, should we get it, to be a classic.  With home field, and time for Brady and Belichick running out, I’d expect the Pats to take it and head to the Super Bowl.

 

NFC title game would be a rematch of the 2014 game that saw the Packers control for 55 minutes, and then a miracle comeback (or horrific collapse, depends on who you were pulling for) by the Seahawks sent them back to the Super Bowl.  This time around, I believe the Packers would be the better team for the full 60 minutes and get their revenge.

 

Finally, I believe we are going to get a Brady v Rodgers matchup in the Super Bowl.  It seems like since 2010 this matchup has been waiting to happen.  In 2010 the Packers made it, and the Pats looked like they were going to run away with the AFC, only to be upset by the Jets.  Next season both were top seeds, but the Packers were upset by the Giants.  2012?  Nope.  2013?  Not close.  2014 it was happening until Brandon Bostick decided he was Jerry Rice.  So finally (as long as I’m right, and we all know I always am) we’ll get Pats vs Packers, Brady v Rodgers.  And this just feels so much like 2010.  A lot of pundits believe it feels like years the Giants have won it all, but I’ve maintained that this is not a Giants team which is better than their record suggests, they’re worse.  But the Packers looked like they were done.  I wrote them off.  Thought for sure Mike McCarthy was finished as head coach.  Figured Rodgers was having big issues with others in the locker room like some in the media had suggested.  But this team is on fire right now, and just feel like they’re peaking at the perfect time.  So as of right now, I like the Packers to upset the Pats in Super Bowl LI.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 17 Picks ATS

Didn’t end up doing my hot takes piece last week.  Holidays, then got sick (still sick since I’m writing this on NYE at 11:16 PM, I don’t have a life but I at least have options on NYE so don’t call me a MASSIVE loser).  Don’t feel like writing this, but it’s the last week of the season and I want to see how I finish the season.  40-35-7 on the season, 5-0 sure would be sweet to cap things off as I like the way 10 games over .500 sounds.  This is always a near impossible week to bet though.  I think 5-0 or 0-5 are a lot more likely than 3-2 or 2-3 because of the unpredictability here.

 

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Bengals +1.5

Where is the motivation for the Ravens in this game?  I think the Bengals take this one outright because after a shitty season they’ll likely look to play well for their fans in their season finale.  I guess the Ravens MIGHT put up a fight for Steve Smith, but I just prefer home teams in these meaningless games.  So with the Bengals getting points, I like this bet.

 

Chicago at Minnesota

Bears +6.5

The Bears have fought pretty hard down the stretch.  They suck, but they’ve battled.  The Vikings have simply fallen apart.  I like the team who more so met expectations (the Bears) than the team that failed to live up to expectations (the Vikings).  The Viks were expected to go deep into the playoffs, and everything fell apart.  There for I feel like 6.5 is just too many points to give the Bears.

 

Oakland at Denver

Broncos -1.5

I’m really not understanding why the Broncos aren’t favored by more here.  It’s such a massive blow for the Raiders losing Derek Carr.  And the Broncos motivation will be to help ruin the party for the Raiders possibly winning the AFC West.  They won’t let the Raiders celebrate that on their field.  Plus, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch are expected to play, and likely will be auditioning for next season.  The Raiders would LIKE to win, but in the back of their heads they have to know their season is done despite going to the playoffs.

 

Seattle at San Francisco

Seahawks -10

It’s a massive number.  But the reports say the Niners are about to gut the franchise, so that’ll be a massive distraction for this squad.  And then the Seahawks need a win to keep home field possibilities alive.  With the Falcons playing at the same time, the Seahawks won’t know whether or not their shot at 2nd in the NFC is dead while they’re on the field.  So I would GUESS the Seahawks go up big early, pull their starters at the half, and I really believe the Niners will quit.

 

Green Bay at Detroit

Packers -3.5

It just feels like the Packers are red hot and the Lions completely missed the boat.  I’m not a fan of “gut feel” when it comes to betting, but it’s overwhelming going into this game.  Added to this is that the Packers had an extra day off this week and the Lions are on a short week.  Now, I do think the Lions were looking forward to this game on Monday night, but Jim Caldwell should have got his starters out of that game early because this was essentially the must win game.  Just horrible vibes from the Lions, great ones from the Packers, I suspect the Packers win this one going away.

 

Over/Under

 

Dallas at Philadelphia

Over 44

Tony Romo?  Mark Sanchez?  I don’t think it matters, what’ll matter is Philly desperately wanting to run it up on the Cowboys for their fans.  The Cowboys aren’t going to stop anyone in this game, so Carson Wentz will put up big numbers.  Philly might put up 45 on their own since they have zero to lose.

 

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Over 47

What I’m looking for this week in particular is 2 teams with talented offenses who have nothing to play for.  That way they should be really lose and just looking to put up big numbers.  The Jags with an interim coach who knows he’s not getting the job will do just that.  And the Colts are always a threat to put 30 up at home.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 16 Picks ATS

Ok, so I’m hungover while writing this (shout out to tall singles…you had to be there), and it’s late Friday night, running on 4 hours sleep, and I got Christmas gifts that need wrapping.  Correction: I got Christmas gifts that I need to tell Steph to wrap for me.  Anyway, nearly forgot to do this, but for the second week in a row I’m rushed to do this and there for this will be speedy.  A .500 week last week going 2-2-1, now sitting at 38-31-7 on the season.  A 9-1 or so finish to the season would really make me look smrter than I am…

 

Atlanta at Carolina

Panthers +3

When he doesn’t get touched, QB front runner is great!  Also, the Panthers late in the season are great.  I still really like the Falcons, but the Panthers are JUST BARELY still alive, even with a win here are likely dusted after this weekend, but as long as they’re alive I like the matchup here and believe they’ll win this one outright.

 

Minnesota at Green Bay

Packers -7

I’m a little nervous with this one, but if you just look at things rationally and where both these teams are headed, then the Packers should win this one in a blowout.  And as you’ll see as I go on here today, the Packers come into this one as the desperate team.  Nothing on the line for the Vikings, not even improving their pick because the Eagles own it, but the Packers really need this one because should they lose, the Lions all of a sudden have what could be a cupcake matchup in Dallas now that the Cowboys have clinched home field in the NFC.

 

Indianapolis at Oakland

Colts +3.5

Love this one here because the game is just so much bigger for the Colts than it is for the Raiders.  The Colts are much like the Panthers where they’re not going to the playoffs, but the door is still just slightly open.  When that’s the case, you don’t want to be the reason you miss the playoffs.  You want other teams to knock you out.  Also, I believe Andrew Luck should put points up on this Raiders D, and the Colts D is actually playing decent of late so they might get some stops.  Don’t forget too that the Raiders clinched with a big win in San Diego, so coming off that high could prove to be dangerous for them.  If you’re looking for an upset special this week, the Colts could be a real good bet.

 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Steelers -5.5

Seeing it’s the holidays, I have to put the Christmas day games on my picks.  I’ve called the Ravens total frauds just about all season.  I don’t see any reason to bail on that theory now, although there are certain teams who just seem to love to f*** you over during the season.  But I just think this is a massive game for the Steelers (obviously, AFC North on the line), and the Steelers have been a sleepy team all season but this is one of those spots where they need to win so with desperation mixed with a big talent advantage I like the Steelers to win this one by a TD.

 

Denver at Kansas City

Broncos +3

I’ll admit, I like this pick the least this week.  But yet again, the theme for this week, it’s all about who the more desperate team is.  KC is essentially in, so this game is important for them, but I wouldn’t say vital.  The Broncos though have to win or they’re done.  I do think the Chiefs win the game, but I see it being a war in the trenches and nothing exciting to watch.

 

*Detroit at Dallas

Cowboys -7

Bonus pick here.  DO NOT BET THIS YET!!!  This all depends on what the Packers do.  BUT…should the Packers win, take the Cowboys here as it would be great value.  It’s a nothing game for the Cowboys now so why would you do such a thing?  Because as I pointed out in my hot takes piece last week, this would be a nothing game for the Lions should the Packers win.  Packers win, and it’s Packers v Lions for the NFC North in week 17 no matter what the Lions do against the Cowboys, so why play anyone?  Especially when it would be a short week for the Lions, and the Packers will have an extra days rest.  Add to this, since the Cowboys clinched on Thursday after the Giants loss, this line hasn’t moved.  People have laid big money on the Lions, but the line has stayed at 7, indicating that Vegas is loving all the money going on the Lions.  Wait on the Packers, and as soon as they’re in the clear…should they win…rush to put money on the Cowboys because the value on the bet would be ridiculous.

 

Over/Under

I’ve done poorly with these lately, so I don’t want to tell you my record…

 

Tennessee at Jacksonville

Over 44

The Jags with a new coach on the sidelines in Doug Marrone, so I believe what’ll happen in these final two games is they’ll play loose just looking to give the fans a show to end the season.  Bortles with Robinson, Hurns, Lee and Thomas could really expose the Titans DB’s.  The last time these two met, they combined for 58 points.  Unless the weather is shitty in Northern Florida, I think 44 should be attainable.

 

San Francisco at Los Angeles

Over 39.5

Hell yeah this will go over!!  Are you kidding me?!  Two teams playing in LA with nothing to play for?  I know they’re both gross, but they’ll just let if fly in this one.  I honestly expect this to be a bit of a shootout.  Maybe a 38-31 type game.

 

Guessing the Lines (week 17)

I don’t know what my record is on this, let’s just do it.  Have to be within a point of the line.  This one will be REALLY tricky because a lot of teams will have nothing to play for.  So I’ll explain all my thoughts because you’ll be wondering why I’m thinking some of these lines will happen.

 

New Orleans at Atlanta -7 (I predict they have to win to clinch the South)

 

Baltimore -6 at Cincinnati (Ravens lose in Pittsburgh, but the Ravens will still be alive)

 

NY Giants at Washington -7 (Giants will have clinched, Redskins will have to win)

 

Houston at Tennessee -3 (This will likely be for the AFC South, should be tremendous)

 

Carolina at Tampa Bay -6.5 (Bucs will still be alive, Panthers will be done)

 

Green Bay -3.5 at Detroit (As long as the Packers don’t blow it against the Vikings, this is for the NFC North and the Packers will be the favorites)

 

Jacksonville at Indianapolis -6 (Nothing game for either, expect a ton of points put up)

 

New England at Miami -2.5 (This is really tough because Belichick won’t rest guys, but this is will be the biggest game for the Dolphins since 08 so I have to think they’ll be the favorite)

 

Chicago at Minnesota -3 (Nothing game for either team, Bears might take it with how hard they’re playing but I assume the Viks will still be the favorite)

 

Buffalo -6.5 at NY Jets (Bills beat the Dolphins and they could still have a heartbeat, yet even if they don’t I believe they’ll play hard for Rex Ryan in what’ll be his last game as head coach)

 

Dallas at Philadelphia -4 (Absolutely nothing game for the Cowboys.  Eagles will play hard to get their fans a win against a hated rival)

 

Cleveland at Pittsburgh -14.5 (Tricky, because I’m not sure what the Steelers may have to play for.  Might still be a shot at a bye, I’m honestly not sure.  If they have something on the line, this will be a massive line)

 

Arizona -3.5 at Los Angeles (Cards being the more veteran team will be a bigger threat to lay down in the final game of the season, so this line won’t be what you’d think)

 

Oakland -3 at Denver (I think the Raiders might need this one to clinch or at least stay alive for the AFC West title.  I doubt the Broncos will have anything to play for, but being the Raiders and the final home game of the season the Broncos will still play hard)

 

Kansas City -6.5 at San Diego (Same story here, AFC West could be on the line.  BUT…possibly the last game in San Diego for the Chargers so if for some reason it’s a nothing game for the Chiefs I’d expect the Chargers to be the favorites)

 

Seattle -7.5 at San Francisco (This would be a bigger line if it meant anything to the Seahawks, but it likely won’t)

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 15 Hot Takes

I’ll start this week with some quick hitters, the hottest of all the hot takes this season.

 

I was of the opinion that the Rams didn’t look very good after the coaching change.

 

The Browns are not an NFL team that can win football games.

 

Drew Brees is a good QB.

 

Injuries could be making the San Diego Chargers a weaker football team than they normally would be.

 

See, this is the type of blog I should have been doing the whole season.  That was 66 words.  I probably could have told you all about the NFL week to week in 200 words or less.  Back in high school if I had to write 300 words I’d be making that as wordy as I possibly could to get to 301 or 302.  Now days if I got less than 1,000 I feel as though I’ve failed my dozens of fans.  I’m kidding, that should read a dozen, not dozens.

 

Big thanks once again goes out to the Miami Dolphins who decided to save their absolutely most garbage, pathetic thing of a performance two weeks ago in Baltimore when I bet them hard.  Why?  Because it’s so FUCKIN CLEAR that the Ravens are still frauds, and the Dolphins are pretty good!  No Ryan Tannehill, no problem for the fish on Saturday night in New York.  I know it was the Jets, but that’s a big rivalry game.  Meanwhile, the Ravens couldn’t stop the Eagles average running game, or a QB who mechanically keeps looking worse and worse.  They won, but they won thanks to the Eagles missing a two point conversion.  Dolphins are taking the 6th seed in the AFC.  No chance the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday, but what a great game that’ll be to watch on Christmas day!

 

Another massive game on the horizon will be the Packers and Lions for the NFC North in week 17.  With the way things shook down, the Packers are now just a game back.  So they win out and they win the North.  Lions win out, they win the North.  It’s highly unlikely this game won’t be for everything, as the Lions get the Cowboys in Dallas.  Unless the Giants get upset by a terrible Eagles team, the Cowboys will need to win this game to clinch the NFC East and home field.

 

What a massive win for MY Titans in KC!  I’ve been on this team pretty much all season.  This is the best team in the NFC South, they just have to win out to take the division, which facing the Jags and then getting the Texans at home they should do.  But as much as we all trash that division, the Titans are for real and are going to be a miserable out for anyone.  The weakness is their secondary, but we’ve seen teams win the Super Bowl with poor secondary’s.  QB can make throws, can run the ball, can get to the QB, it’s a damn good team and that win in KC is the type of big win that takes their confidence to another level.

 

It’s funny how the Falcons are still flying under the radar.  I know I’ve hardly talked about them at all this season.  They could not be in a better position heading into the playoffs (assuming they close the deal on the NFC South crown).  Nobody is paying any attention to them, they have a good QB, good run game, and get to the QB just like the Titans.  They have a better QB yet not as good of a run game as the Titans, but you get the point.

 

I made the point before the season that the Broncos would miss Peyton Manning, they do.  I also made the point that Gary Kubiak seems to make a lot of QB’s look better than they are, he does.  Trevor Siemian looked solid early, and a lot of people bought in.  But he’s done nothing but digress all year.  He’s not an NFL starter.  Might be a solid backup, but he’s not a starter.  The Broncos are desperate to win in KC on Christmas night, but they aren’t going to because he can’t go into KC and win that game for them.  Doesn’t matter how great their D is, Siemian isn’t going to get it done.  I sound like Skip Bayless in this paragraph, which is fitting considering I made this blog with a complete jack ass like him in mind.

 

I could give more love to the Raiders this week, but you know what I’ll say.  I will add this to their story though.  I’m too lazy apparently to look up the numbers, but just from watching the games I see a Raiders defense that is progressing and getting better.  Not really because of the performance on Sunday, that’s a shitty Chargers O-line, and they also were without a real NFL running back.  But they’re better than their numbers suggest.  I’ve figured all season that while I loved them that they weren’t serious contenders to win the AFC, but I’m starting to wonder if they can’t do it, though I doubt they can go into Foxborough and win.

 

A very pedestrian 2-2-1 week picking ATS (Redskins now down 23-12 so they ain’t beating the Panthers by 7!) but maybe I’ll have better luck than I did last week guessing the lines?  Let’s find out.

 

NY Giants -3.5 at Philadelphia

Giants by 3, so I’m off to a good start.

 

Atlanta -4 at Carolina

Falcons by 3.5, 2/2.

 

Miami at Buffalo -1.5

Bills are favored by 3.5, so it has me wondering if Vegas isn’t baiting people to take the Dolphins.  If the weather is awful, the Bills with that running game and home field could have a massive advantage.

 

Minnesota at Green Bay -2.5

I figured the Vikings would win.  They SO didn’t!  No shock that this line is the Pack now by 6.5.

 

NY Jets at New England -9.5

This is shocking.  Pats by 16.5!!!  No.  Take the Jets here, that’s just stupid.  What do the Pats even have to play for?!  This is the Jets Super Bowl.

 

San Diego -6.5 at Cleveland

Spot on.  Take the Chargers, Browns can’t cover let alone win.

 

Tampa Bay -2 at New Orleans

Wow, the Saints are favored by 3.  I’m really stunned at this one.

 

Tennessee -6 at Jacksonville

Titans by 5, so I just barely get the win here.

 

Washington -4 at Chicago

Redskins by 3.5 is what I can find, though much like last week I’m looking these up as the Monday nighter is on going (at the half).

 

Indianapolis at Oakland -6.5

Maybe would have been this had the Colts lost as I expected them to.  But they’re coming off a blowout win, so the Raiders are only favored by 3.5.

 

Arizona at Seattle -7

After getting humiliated at home by Drew Brees, the Cards have shown they’re basically giving up.  Seahawks by 9.

 

San Francisco at Los Angeles -2.5

Rams by 3.5.  I think my line is better, but nobody cares about this game.

 

Cincinnati at Houston -3

Another one I just barely get right.  Texans by 2.

 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -3

Steelers by 5.5.  I don’t know if the Steelers will cover, but I do know they’re winning this football game and taking the division.

 

Denver at Kansas City -4

Chiefs by 4.5.  Man, Christmas day we have two MASSIVE games!  Awesome!

 

Detroit at Dallas -6.5

Cowboys by 7.  I’m going to suggest that you bet the Cowboys at 7 VERY HARD RIGHT NOW.  The Packers are highly likely to beat the Vikings, there for this game will be meaningless to the Lions and they could end up resting their top guys.  Meanwhile the Cowboys likely need it to wrap up the NFC East because the Giants should win in Philly.

 

Anyway, 9/16 so I managed to pull it out, though it’s not lost on me that I only got one of the games exactly right.  I really need to clean up my act!!

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 15 Picks ATS

Ok, it’s 9:33 AM.  I’m REALLY late getting this started, but I guess we’ll see how I make out.  I have an hour and a half until the games start, so basically I have an hour to get this written.  Please excuse all the spelling mistakes that’ll certainly be made.  Coming off an OK 3-2 week, now at 36-29-6 on the season.

 

Green Bay at Chicago

Bears +6

For whatever reason, the Bears are showing signs of life.  Add to this, the weather is going to be BRUTAL for this game.  Aaron Rodgers is 0-3 in the weather that is expected for this game.  So 6 points is just far too many points here.  Packers win a very ugly and close game.

 

Philadelphia at Baltimore

Ravens -5

So I haven’t been too high on the Ravens all season long, but in this spot I’m making an exception.  I’m making an exception here because the Eagles have completely fallen apart and the betting public clearly hasn’t fully adjusted to this yet.  The Ravens are in short rest this week, but they’re also a very desperate team after the loss to the Pats.  I love the Ravens to blowout the Eagles today.

 

Tennessee at Kansas City

Titans +6

The Chiefs are coming off 10 days rest, but they’re also coming off a massive win against the Raiders.  I’m not at all saying the Titans will pull off the upset here, but I do think they can keep this game really close, and really ugly.  Also the Titans now are getting desperate in the “race” for the AFC South.  Two teams with great running games and similar QB’s, Chiefs win but Titans keep this one within a field goal.

 

Oakland at San Diego

Chargers +3

I said it before and I’ll say it again, I think the Chargers are winning this game outright.  10 days rest for the Raiders, and all of a sudden it is somewhat an important game for them.  But this is the Super Bowl for the Chargers.  This is possibly the last game for the Chargers in San Diego facing the Raiders.  That’s their number one rival, and it just won’t get any bigger than this for Chargers fans in San Diego, the ones that’ll be there.  The OTHER motivating factor for the Chargers will be that the stadium is expected to be over run by Raiders fans as it appears the Chargers will without a doubt be on the move after this season concludes.

 

Carolina at Washington

Redskins -6.5

The Panthers are just simply done.  Obviously they’ve been done for a few weeks now, but for a team that had Super Bowl aspirations coming into the season, some teams being done are worse than others.  And this line suggests to me that they’re trying to get people to bet on the Panthers because the love for Cam Newton and belief the Panthers are great likely hasn’t faded this much.  The Redskins can really take advantage of this secondary too that has been without their best DB all season, because they let him go to Washington ironically.

 

 

Over/Under

0-2 last week, 6-6 on the season.

 

Oakland at San Diego

Over 49.5

This is just too low.  Both teams with D’s you can really take advantage of, both teams with great QB’s, this will be a shootout between Rivers and Carr.

 

Carolina at Washington

Over 50.5

I learned my lesson last week.  Don’t ever take the under!!!  Panthers won’t be able to stop the Redskins offense even if Luke Kuechly returns, and Cam “frontrunner” Newton will be happy to play a D that doesn’t beat him up too much for his liking, so he’ll do his thing.

 

 

Guessing the Lines (week 16)

7/16 last week, 51/92 on the season.  The goal is to be within a point of the line.

 

NY Giants -3.5 at Philadelphia

 

Atlanta -4 at Carolina

 

Miami at Buffalo -1.5

 

Minnesota at Green Bay -2.5

 

NY Jets at New England -9.5

 

San Diego -6.5 at Cleveland

 

Tampa Bay -2 at New Orleans

 

Tennessee -6 at Jacksonville

 

Washington -4 at Chicago

 

Indianapolis at Oakland -6.5

 

Arizona at Seattle -7

 

San Francisco at Los Angeles -2.5

 

Cincinnati at Houston -3

 

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -3

 

Denver at Kansas City -4

 

Detroit at Dallas -6.5

 

Hmm, 10:23.  50 minutes.  Not bad.

 

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