NFL Week 15 Hot Takes

I’ll start this week with some quick hitters, the hottest of all the hot takes this season.

I was of the opinion that the Rams didn’t look very good after the coaching change.

The Browns are not an NFL team that can win football games.

Drew Brees is a good QB.

Injuries could be making the San Diego Chargers a weaker football team than they normally would be.

See, this is the type of blog I should have been doing the whole season.  That was 66 words.  I probably could have told you all about the NFL week to week in 200 words or less.  Back in high school if I had to write 300 words I’d be making that as wordy as I possibly could to get to 301 or 302.  Now days if I got less than 1,000 I feel as though I’ve failed my dozens of fans.  I’m kidding, that should read a dozen, not dozens.

Big thanks once again goes out to the Miami Dolphins who decided to save their absolutely most garbage, pathetic thing of a performance two weeks ago in Baltimore when I bet them hard.  Why?  Because it’s so FUCKIN CLEAR that the Ravens are still frauds, and the Dolphins are pretty good!  No Ryan Tannehill, no problem for the fish on Saturday night in New York.  I know it was the Jets, but that’s a big rivalry game.  Meanwhile, the Ravens couldn’t stop the Eagles average running game, or a QB who mechanically keeps looking worse and worse.  They won, but they won thanks to the Eagles missing a two point conversion.  Dolphins are taking the 6th seed in the AFC.  No chance the Ravens beat the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Sunday, but what a great game that’ll be to watch on Christmas day!

Another massive game on the horizon will be the Packers and Lions for the NFC North in week 17.  With the way things shook down, the Packers are now just a game back.  So they win out and they win the North.  Lions win out, they win the North.  It’s highly unlikely this game won’t be for everything, as the Lions get the Cowboys in Dallas.  Unless the Giants get upset by a terrible Eagles team, the Cowboys will need to win this game to clinch the NFC East and home field.

What a massive win for MY Titans in KC!  I’ve been on this team pretty much all season.  This is the best team in the NFC South, they just have to win out to take the division, which facing the Jags and then getting the Texans at home they should do.  But as much as we all trash that division, the Titans are for real and are going to be a miserable out for anyone.  The weakness is their secondary, but we’ve seen teams win the Super Bowl with poor secondary’s.  QB can make throws, can run the ball, can get to the QB, it’s a damn good team and that win in KC is the type of big win that takes their confidence to another level.

It’s funny how the Falcons are still flying under the radar.  I know I’ve hardly talked about them at all this season.  They could not be in a better position heading into the playoffs (assuming they close the deal on the NFC South crown).  Nobody is paying any attention to them, they have a good QB, good run game, and get to the QB just like the Titans.  They have a better QB yet not as good of a run game as the Titans, but you get the point.

I made the point before the season that the Broncos would miss Peyton Manning, they do.  I also made the point that Gary Kubiak seems to make a lot of QB’s look better than they are, he does.  Trevor Siemian looked solid early, and a lot of people bought in.  But he’s done nothing but digress all year.  He’s not an NFL starter.  Might be a solid backup, but he’s not a starter.  The Broncos are desperate to win in KC on Christmas night, but they aren’t going to because he can’t go into KC and win that game for them.  Doesn’t matter how great their D is, Siemian isn’t going to get it done.  I sound like Skip Bayless in this paragraph, which is fitting considering I made this blog with a complete jack ass like him in mind.

I could give more love to the Raiders this week, but you know what I’ll say.  I will add this to their story though.  I’m too lazy apparently to look up the numbers, but just from watching the games I see a Raiders defense that is progressing and getting better.  Not really because of the performance on Sunday, that’s a shitty Chargers O-line, and they also were without a real NFL running back.  But they’re better than their numbers suggest.  I’ve figured all season that while I loved them that they weren’t serious contenders to win the AFC, but I’m starting to wonder if they can’t do it, though I doubt they can go into Foxborough and win.

A very pedestrian 2-2-1 week picking ATS (Redskins now down 23-12 so they ain’t beating the Panthers by 7!) but maybe I’ll have better luck than I did last week guessing the lines?  Let’s find out.

NY Giants -3.5 at Philadelphia

Giants by 3, so I’m off to a good start.

Atlanta -4 at Carolina

Falcons by 3.5, 2/2.

Miami at Buffalo -1.5

Bills are favored by 3.5, so it has me wondering if Vegas isn’t baiting people to take the Dolphins.  If the weather is awful, the Bills with that running game and home field could have a massive advantage.

Minnesota at Green Bay -2.5

I figured the Vikings would win.  They SO didn’t!  No shock that this line is the Pack now by 6.5.

NY Jets at New England -9.5

This is shocking.  Pats by 16.5!!!  No.  Take the Jets here, that’s just stupid.  What do the Pats even have to play for?!  This is the Jets Super Bowl.

San Diego -6.5 at Cleveland

Spot on.  Take the Chargers, Browns can’t cover let alone win.

Tampa Bay -2 at New Orleans

Wow, the Saints are favored by 3.  I’m really stunned at this one.

Tennessee -6 at Jacksonville

Titans by 5, so I just barely get the win here.

Washington -4 at Chicago

Redskins by 3.5 is what I can find, though much like last week I’m looking these up as the Monday nighter is on going (at the half).

Indianapolis at Oakland -6.5

Maybe would have been this had the Colts lost as I expected them to.  But they’re coming off a blowout win, so the Raiders are only favored by 3.5.

Arizona at Seattle -7

After getting humiliated at home by Drew Brees, the Cards have shown they’re basically giving up.  Seahawks by 9.

San Francisco at Los Angeles -2.5

Rams by 3.5.  I think my line is better, but nobody cares about this game.

Cincinnati at Houston -3

Another one I just barely get right.  Texans by 2.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh -3

Steelers by 5.5.  I don’t know if the Steelers will cover, but I do know they’re winning this football game and taking the division.

Denver at Kansas City -4

Chiefs by 4.5.  Man, Christmas day we have two MASSIVE games!  Awesome!

Detroit at Dallas -6.5

Cowboys by 7.  I’m going to suggest that you bet the Cowboys at 7 VERY HARD RIGHT NOW.  The Packers are highly likely to beat the Vikings, there for this game will be meaningless to the Lions and they could end up resting their top guys.  Meanwhile the Cowboys likely need it to wrap up the NFC East because the Giants should win in Philly.

Anyway, 9/16 so I managed to pull it out, though it’s not lost on me that I only got one of the games exactly right.  I really need to clean up my act!!

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