Category Archives: NHL Picks

Soups on hockey moneyline, against the spread, and over/under picks.

NHL Picks – Mar. 10th, 2018

I don’t have much time to do these this week.  Last week I told you my picks would be garbage because A) I didn’t have much time to do them and B) I didn’t have much to pick from.  I was right.  This week, Not much to pick from yet again, but the picks are likely a little more solid.  Four of five are “puckline” bets which is a lot safer to do this time of year when you know which teams have something to play for and which don’t.  I’m expecting two of them to win, and if two win then you win money.  And who doesn’t like to win money?!

 

St.Louis at Los Angeles

Kings -1.5 (+185)

Simply put, the Blues are slip sliding right down the standings, and at this point I’m sure that Doug Armstrong actually hopes they slide right to 25th overall or lower.  Why?  Because that would guarantee the Blues keep their 2018 first round pick.  If they pick lower than 10th in the draft, the Flyers get that first round pick.  On the ice they’re trending that way.  Jake Allen starts today, he’s been a disaster after a scorching hot start (I think by now it’s a pretty obvious pattern with Allen that he really struggles with the mental aspect of the game because he’s wildly inconsistent).  I also believe that they’ve quit on the GM because of the Stastny trade.  Couple those things with every game being massive for the Kings right now and I just think the Kings -1.5 is a good play here.

 

Washington at San Jose

Capitals +120

Is it wrong to simply play a hunch?  The Caps have lost their first two on their California roadie.  So with a good team like them, and a very inconsistent team like them, you’d think they would win one of the three…right?  Even with Philip Grubauer getting the nod today, it might be a bonus for the Caps as Braden Holtby just hasn’t been the same guy this season.  Plus, as I said earlier, I don’t have much to pick from for the second week in a row.

 

Pittsburgh at Toronto

Penguins -1.5 (+235)

It’s not no Auston Matthews.  It’s really not anything to do with the Leafs as a team.  It’s that this is the only game the Leafs have in an eight day stretch.  Haven’t played since Monday, and don’t play again until next Wednesday.  And what do they currently have to play for?  They’re in third in the Atlantic, they’re not going to climb in the standings, and it’s highly unlikely the Panthers will catch them (and even if that happened they’d still be pretty safe for a wildcard spot), so there is no motivation on top of it being the only game they have in an eight day stretch.  So at +235, I like the Pens to get an empty netter late and take this one by two.

 

New Jersey at Nashville

Predators -1.5 (+150)

Nobody seems to notice right now in the midst of Taylor Hall’s tremendous play, but the Devils are sliding.  They’ve lost four of five, the only win in there was at home to the Canadiens, and even in that game they did their best to blow the game.  Then of course you have the Preds on a 10 game winning streak, and while I haven’t been quiet about not believing in the Preds come playoff time, there confidence is so off the charts right now that they should win this one going away.

 

 

Minnesota at Edmonton

Wild -1.5 (+260)

This is insane value.  Now, I get what Vegas is thinking here.  Wild on the second half of back to backs.  But I’ve started to notice this season that the second half of back to backs isn’t the struggle it once was.  I’m going to look more into it at some point, but as the league gets quicker and quicker, it gets less and less of a grind.  Hence, back to backs aren’t what they once were.  A little surprised Bruce Boudreau is starting Devan Dubnyk on back to backs when he has a quality backup to go to in Alex Stalock, but he’s the coach.  Add to all this, the Wild are on a major heater right now, while the Oilers are very much so done.  -1.5 at THIS kind of value is too good to pass up.

 

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NHL Picks – Mar. 3rd, 2018

Why do I do these for Saturday’s?  Don’t answer that, because I know why, but I like to go out and have a few on Friday nights.  Sometimes a few turn into a lot, like last night did, and you wake up asking yourself “why were we drinking with Big Pred in Brewhouse at 3 AM?  Oh well, I have to get my ass up to go lose people money”.  So looking at the schedule, this is going to be a shitty group of picks.  But it’s what I got to work with, so here we go.  2-3 last week, after back to back winning weeks.  So I’m due for another long losing streak I’m sure…

 

Montreal at Boston

 

 

Bruins -1.5 (-120)

There just isn’t anywhere else to go with this one.  It’s one of the best teams in the league against one of the worst, it’s Niemi vs Rask, it’s in Boston, it’s the Habs on the second half of a back to back.  So despite poor odds, you still want to win money so the smart money is on the Bruins giving a goal here.

 

 

NY Islanders at Pittsburgh

Over 6.5 (-115)

There is just no way this doesn’t go over.  I fully expect the Pens to button things up tonight after their showing in Boston on Thursday night, but the Islanders just can’t.  This season has just completely blown up in Garth Snow’s face.  He basically made it public that he was going to put this top contender around John Tavares and that would convince him to stay, and instead he’s put a very flawed team around Tavares and given him a ton of reasons to leave.

 

Ottawa at Arizona

Coyotes -1.5 (+220)

The Sens are on the second half of a back to back, and the Coyotes are actually playing decent the last month or so.  But I’m not going to lie to anyone here, this is much more about the odds of the Coyotes winning by two or more than anything.  +220, and hey, it’s not easy to find five games on a light night.  So I’ll take a shot here and say the Coyotes lead 3-2 late and Max Domi nets an empty netter with under a minute to play to get the win here.

 

NY Rangers at Edmonton

Over 6.5 (-110)

This will be Pavelec vs Talbot tonight, not Lundqvist after he stole the game in Calgary last night.  The Rangers have been hot offensively since the trade deadline moves (Ryan Spooner in particular seems to be loving life in New York thus far), and the Oilers are so loose defensively.  Then the Rangers with Pavelec in goal, you’d expect the Oilers to pop three or four in.

 

NY Rangers at Edmonton

Rangers +175

Simply put, the Rangers are a team playing with house money right now and just seem to be loving coming to the rink.  They’re playing a lot like Vegas right now.  Zero pressure, nobody is gripping their sticks, and because of that they’re hot.  The Oilers, they’re a mess.  Even their two previous wins in Los Angeles and Anaheim they nearly pissed both games away, both with two goal leads and under 30 seconds to play.  Think about that.  That’s extremely rare to have happen once, they nearly did it and then actually did it on back to back nights.  It’s just a total mess right now.  Rangers will win a high scoring game.

 

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NHL Picks – February 24th, 2018

I can’t believe I’m saying this right now…I’ve gone 7-3 in my last two weeks!!!  Seriously, DOUBLE-YOU TEE EFF as the children say!!!  That’s it, that’s all I have to say for my opening.  It’s awful, but sometimes you just have writers block and a bit of a hangover, so this is all you’re getting…other than the picks…which are 7-3 the last two times out…not to brag or anything…

 

Boston at Toronto

Leafs +100

No Matthews tonight and I still like the Leafs to win?!  Well, yeah.  First, they have guys they can move to centre from the wing.  Marleau and Nylander can both be put in the middle and they’ll be fine for a few games.  Babcock with last change can control the matchup to limit any matchup advantages the Bruins may get.  Plus, the last time Matthews was out they seemed to rally around it rather than fold.  With this being a possible first round preview, I believe we’ll get the Leafs at their absolute best tonight and there for at +100 I really like taking the Leafs.

 

Tampa Bay at Montreal

Lightning -1.5 (+155)

Top team in the Atlantic with their Vezina candidate in goal vs one of the worst teams in the Atlantic with their backup in goal who they’re trying to showcase for a trade.  Niemi has actually been real good for the Habs (when I’ve seen him anyway, and especially compared to how his season started), but I can’t not take the Bolts -1.5 here.

 

Chicago at Columbus

Blackhawks +150

The standings suggest that this game is massive for Columbus, and nothing for Chicago.  But the Blackhawks are starting to turn it on, while the Blue Jackets have been slipping down the standings for a few months now and are in real danger of missing the playoffs.  At +150, I’ll take a Hawks team who seemingly haven’t yet quit on the season.

 

Pittsburgh at Florida

Panthers +105

I’m sky high on the Panthers these days.  The Pens have been scorching hot as well, but the Panthers feel like a team who is going to the playoffs despite appearing to be a long way out of things at the moment.  Three games in hand on everyone, but they have to win these games in hand.  Luongo back, momentum coming off the comeback win vs the Caps Thursday night, they’re rallying around the shootings at Parkland, they’re going to be a difficult team to beat right now.  And before you say “the Pens just got Brassard though”, he won’t be there until at least Tuesday because of work visa issues.

 

Edmonton at Los Angeles

Kings -1.5 (+190)

Without a doubt this is what’s happening tonight.  The Oilers can’t win in LA, the Kings are desperate for points, the Oilers seem to be much more distracted heading into the deadline than most teams right now, and it all adds up to a blowout win for the Kings tonight.

 

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NHL Picks – Feb. 3rd, 2018

I’m not sure why I do these anymore, and I’m sure when I go 1-4 or 0-5 again tonight, my buddy Chris will pile on….who doesn’t love the guy who piles on….I’m just kidding Roberts you’re a beauty, but seriously if you pile on again I’m flying down there and only one of us is living to talk about it.  Too far?  Seriously though, new approach this week.  I’m going to give you games that I’d normally pick, and games that I’m actually suggesting to bet, and I’m guessing my picks go 1-4 and the picks that shouldn’t win go 4-1.

 

What I would bet:

Columbus at NY Islanders

Blue Jackets +110

Both teams have been struggling the last month or so, but while the Jackets have been struggling, the Islanders have completely imploded.  Columbus at +110 is just too good of value to pass up.

 

What you should bet:

Toronto at Boston

Bruins -1.5 (+215)

The Bruins have been beaten by the Leafs a lot over the last two seasons, because they can’t keep up with them.  So naturally they’ll win this one going away….

 

What I would bet:

Colorado at Winnipeg

Jets -1.5 (+150)

The Avs don’t have Nathan McKinnon and they’re playing the best home team in the league, so it’s very simple.  Without a doubt the Jets -1.5 is a terrific bet to make.

 

What you should bet:

Detroit at Florida

Under 5.5 (-110)

I hate the goaltending for both of these teams, this one should be a shootout, which is why of course it’ll be a defensive struggle….

 

What I would bet:

Pittsburgh at New Jersey

Penguins -1.5 (+210)

The Pens are getting RED HOT.  I know they just played the Caps last night, but the back to backs in the East aren’t nearly as tough as the ones in the West, and while the Pens are getting back to normal, the Devils have been putting points in the bank, but not winning much of late.  So the Pens at -1.5 with those odds is a good bet to take.

 

What you should bet:

NY Rangers at Nashville

Rangers +180

The Preds are maybe the best team in the league, at least at the moment with Forsberg back healthy and Hedman out for Tampa, and the Rangers have been really struggling and appear as though they’ll fall out of it soon.  Obviously the Rangers win…

 

What I would bet:

St. Louis at Buffalo

Blues -1.5 (+170)

This one is easy.  The Sabres are one of the worst teams in the league, so just sit back and take anyone who plays them -1.5, especially paying out this kind of money.  Easy pick here to take the Blues, duh.

 

What you should bet:

Chicago at Calgary

Flames -1.5 (+190)

The Flames have lost five straight, have blown leads in I believe all of those games, and in the last two in particular they’ve imploded.  So naturally they come out tonight with a terrific game against a desperate Blackhawks squad and win by two or more…

 

What I would bet:

Tampa Bay at Vancouver

Under 5.5 (-110)

When the Canucks are on, they play an air tight, low scoring hockey game.  2-1, 3-2 type games.  Combine that with it being Vasilevsky vs Markstrom, and it should go under.

 

What you should bet:

Tampa Bay at Vancouver

Over 5.5 (-110)

I just laid out why it should go under, so at -110 those are great odds.  Meaning go with the over, which I in no way expect to happen tonight.

 

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NHL Picks – Jan. 20th, 2018

Man that picture hurts badly.  A lot more so the 13 than the 7.  7 was an absolute bust this season until he got on 13’s line and 13 has been incredible….and should be an Oiler.  Anyway, I’ll cry about the Oil later.  Let’s talk about me for a minute.  3-2!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  I had a winning week last week!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  And it wasn’t a fluke either, the fluke was that I didn’t go 4-1!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Oh by the way, f*** you Arizona Coyotes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Maybe try holding on to a one goal lead with 20 seconds to play ya bunch of assholes!!!!!!!!!!!!!  Anyway I don’t have much time to do these so I’ll get to it!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!  (oh, maybe I didn’t need to go with so many exclamation points on that last one…)

 

Carolina at Detroit

Red Wings -110

So full disclosure, this was going to be a Hurricanes win.  I thought “even odds for both sides, are they kidding?!  The Hurricanes are the much better team!”  That’s how Vegas will get you!  The Hurricanes are playing their first game back after their bye week.  The Red Wings haven’t play in three days, but they’ve been able to practice (teams obviously don’t skate until the day before coming off their bye weeks).  Red Wings should win this game.

 

Toronto at Ottawa

Senators +130

Just from looking at the standings you think that the Leafs should run away with this game.  Leafs are comfortably in the 3rd spot in the Atlantic division, they’re kind of in no man’s land at this point in the season in that they look locked into playing Boston in the 1st round, no chance of catching Tampa, and no chance of another team catching them.  So I believe they’ve been struggling lately because there isn’t any urgency for them.  And the Sens are a bad matchup for the Leafs.  The Sens are a very patient, boring, technically sound club while the Leafs are at their best when they can run and gun.  No coincidence that the Sens have won the first two matchups this season and I like them to take this one again tonight.

 

NY Islanders at Chicago

Under 6.5 (+110)

It’s just too high of a number.  And I hate taking the under in any sports event.  You’re literally pulling for a boring game.  But the over in this one is at -130.  So people are betting hard that there will be seven goals scored in this one.  And hey, if I didn’t love betting value, I would love that bet too.  But +110 for an NHL game to go under, it doesn’t much matter who the teams are or who the goaltenders are, it’s just too good of a value pick to pass up.

 

Tampa Bay at Minnesota

Lightning -120

Not the greatest odds here, but I love this game simply because the Lightning are a top team in the league (they’re THE top team normally, but without Victor Hedman you have to adjust that) and they just had a closed door meeting after the last game.  Now, those are a bit ridiculous I know, but they do seem to give the team a jolt for a game or two.  Add to this, the Wild aren’t really anything.  Yes they’re battling for a playoff spot, and they’re capable of rattling off five or six in a row and beating top teams once in a while.  But even if the Wild are at their best, I don’t think it’ll be enough for tonight to beat what’ll be a very locked in Lightning team.

 

Vancouver at Edmonton

Canucks +160

I’m guaranteeing a Vancouver win tonight.  GUARANTEED.  And this isn’t trying to “reverse jinx” the Oilers.  It is however a matter of knowing this years squad all too well.  They play up and down to their competition.  It doesn’t mean they’ll beat the good teams, but it does mean that they’ll no show the weak teams.  They completely lack any focus.  Also, both teams coming off bye’s also makes this a lot more of a pick’em game then the odds makers have made this.  And finally, the matchup where the Oilers would have really owned the Canucks is now very gone.  Nugent-Hopkins is out, Brandon Sutter is back, so two weeks ago the Oilers would have been able to completely dominate the Canucks down the middle.  Now, it’s not even, the Oil still have the advantage, but it’s not near what it was.  I see a 4-1 Canucks win tonight with an Oilers performance much like we saw at home to the Red Wings, Coyotes (even though they won that one), Flyers and the NYE game vs the Jets.

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NHL Picks – Jan. 13th, 2018

With the way these have gone since October, I’m not sure I should return to doing these.  I have been so awful at these, and maybe I’m nuts but I actually feel like it’s shitty luck!  Go read my rationale behind my picks, I feel like other maybe a game here or there over the last two months of picks I give damn good reasons as to why my picks should win, and they never win!  I’m not even going to give the overall record this week, too pissed about it to count.  It’s like five games under .500 on the season, it’s actually not that bad.  But I could REALLY use a winning Saturday!

 

Winnipeg at Minnesota

Wild -130

Not the best odds here, but I guess they’re good enough.  The odds are better than they should be for a weak road team playing on the second half of a back to back against a team waiting on them.  The Wild last played Wednesday.  So even though the Jets have had an incredible season and the Wild are fighting for a playoff spot, the fact that the Jets are so bad (normally) on the road makes me say you have to take the Wild here.

 

Colorado at Dallas

Over 5.5 (-110)

I believe the last time these two played I thought without a doubt they were going over.  The Avs were always going over in their games, they had Bernier in net, and the Stars were starting Ben Bishop who had been awful on the road all season to that point.  So naturally it was a 2-0 game…See what I mean when I say my picks are right and it’s just insanely shitty luck?!?!?  ANYWAY…two teams coming off bye weeks, I’m expecting a lot of defensive break downs tonight much like we see early in the season when teams are still getting sharp.

 

Edmonton at Vegas

Oilers +170

This so goes against everything for me!  I cringe, no word of a lie, I’m truly cringing writing this!  HOWEVER…the Golden Knights, as hot as they’ve been, are coming off their bye week.  And so many teams take a game coming off a three or four day break to really find their groove.  Meanwhile the Oilers played in Glendale last night, and are going on their bye after the game.  So any temptation there might be to go hit up a casino pre game should be cooled by the fact that they can once the game is done.  I know a lot of love is given to the theory that the only teams who are playing shitty in Vegas are those who get in a day before, but when teams play back to back they don’t skate the next morning.  So don’t think they don’t have time to do shit too, and normally they’ll be flying out after the game.  So I’m going to be really brave here.  I can’t stand picking the Oilers, especially when they’ve been so shitty.  But the sharp pick here is to take the Oilers.  Add to all this, I have a feeling the Oilers goaltending will be real solid tonight.  If they go with Talbot, he’s coming off getting pulled and as we know goaltenders often bounce back from that embarrassment (even though it was in no way on him).  If they go with Montoya, he looked tremendous in relief last night and should be pretty fresh considering he hasn’t played much the last few months.

 

Arizona at San Jose

Coyotes +215

Same theory goes here.  The Coyotes just played last night, while the Sharks have been off for a week.  So we could see the same trend play out in both these games where the team having played last night will look great for the first period or two, and hang on to get the win.  And at +215, those odds are just begging to be bet!

 

Anaheim at L.A.

Over 5.5 (+135)

Both teams are coming off bye weeks, so this is much like the over I picked in the Stars/Avs game.  Also while writing this one I’m thinking back to an example of teams in similar situations which were the Jets and Oilers on Dec. 27th.  That game ended up 4-3, but was 4-3 midway through the 2nd period before the two teams finally settled down.  If the odds were the other way around I might go the other way.  But I just think it’s ridiculous for the under to have been bet so hard here because these games where both teams are rusty are just insanely unpredictable.  So I’m saying to take the over here.

 

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NHL Picks – Dec. 23rd, 2017

I flat out forgot to do these last week.  No reason, no excuse, it just completely slipped my mind.  Now, maybe I should quit!  2-3 the last time out, 2-2-1 the week before that, and then a run of 6-15-1 is what proceeded that.  So I’m not that great at picking NHL games the last six weeks or so!  But, either I’m an idiot or stubborn….maybe it’s both.  Anyway, 21-24-2 on the season, which as much as I play the victim here it’s actually not that bad.  One good night and I’m .500 again….just like the Oilers.

 

Minnesota at Tampa Bay

Over 6 (+105)

The Lightning are one of those teams where it’s just always wise to take the over.  You have Alex Stalock coming back down to earth after a few good starts and he’s on the second half of a back to back, obviously the rest of the squad is as well, and the Wild aren’t playing too buttoned up of late allowing four goals in each of their last three games.  So at +105, I love the over here.

 

Ottawa at Florida

Senators +110

Something called a Harri Sateri will start in goal tonight for the Panthers.  I’m not sure if that’s the same as a shooter tutor, but we’ll soon find out.  I’m not trusting a Harri Sateri to win me a hockey game, especially if my team is on the second half of back to backs as the Panthers are.  And the Sens are on their last legs before Pierre Dorian blows it all up.  They’re pretty much in must win mode from here until the trade deadline.  I feel the Sens are the better team, and will have the better goaltender tonight, so I like them to take this one.

 

Nashville at Dallas

Predators +115

Preds have lost two straight, but the fact of the matter remains that this is the best club in the West right now, and I’m getting them at +115 against a Stars club which has been very inconsistent all season?  Earlier in the month the Preds walked into Dallas and smoked the Stars 5-2.  It’s just too good of odds to not take the Preds in this spot.

 

St. Louis at Vancouver

Blues -1.5 (+215)

BIG odds here, but I really like it.  The Canucks are lost without Bo Horvat in the lineup.  They were already banged up pretty good with him, now without him it’s 90 year old Henrik Sedin and nothing else down the middle.  Then you have the Blues coming off three straight loses on the Canadian prairies, so you have to think they’ll be the more desperate team tonight.  So you got a desperate and more talented team, I really like rolling the dice here and picking the Blues to triple your money.

 

St. Louis at Vancouver

Over 5.5 (+105)

The Canucks are bleeding goals right now.  In regulation time in their last six games they’ve given up five, seven, three, six, seven, and four.  That’s what they’ve given up, and to win this one at better than doubling your money the over is only six.  They’ve hit six or more in seven straight games.  So definitely take the over here.

 

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NHL Picks – Dec. 9th, 2017

By my standards, a .500 week.  2-2-1.  But technically I had a winning week in that if you bet those games you would have walked away with more money, thanks to Tampa at -1.5 being +170 odds.  So that puts my record this season at 19-21-2.  Lots of time to get well back over .500, and with these picks so many of them you’re winning over double, so had someone used all of these picks this season they likely wouldn’t be down much at all, and makes me feel a lot less shitty at doing this!  I use the term “smart bet” in I believe every write up today, so you’re warned.  I know it’s annoying.  Not as annoying as the fact that the girlfriend wants to go Christmas shopping today.  It’s Saturday, let’s not go places where it’ll be a zoo!  That sounds like the absolute worst.  Maybe if I go, karma will make sure these picks are great, so I’ll take one for the team and go shop.

 

Colorado at Florida

Over 6 (-110)

The Avs went on a run for a bit where they were going under every game.  Five straight games, under 5.5 goals a game.  This was after a 12 game run where they hit seven or more.  Lately, they’re back to that.  Three straight where they’ve hit six or more.  And with James Reimer in net at the other end I believe the smart money has to be on the over here.

 

Edmonton at Montreal

Oilers +135

Oh man, I’m CRINGING at this one!  I cannot stand betting an Oilers game, especially these days.  But I have a rule that I’ve developed which is take teams coming off embarrassments.  The Oilers got humiliated at home to the Flyers, and at least should be desperate.  I stress should be, because this team has their collective heads up their asses most of the time.  The Habs were a hot team since Carey Price returned, but they did lose at home to the Blues, then in OT to the Flames.  The Oilers matchup very well with the Habs too as the Habs don’t have the kind of speed which often gives the Oilers trouble.  I see this one going to OT, and if the Oilers do one thing right it is three on three.  Another little tidbit for this game is the Oilers have played surprisingly well in Montreal.  5-1 in their last six at the Bell Centre.  The Oilers often win in Montreal, and the Habs often win in Edmonton it seems.  So with all that factored into a +135, I HATE calling the Oilers to win, but it is a smart bet to make.

 

NY Islanders at Boston

Over 6 (+100)

I knew this, but didn’t pay attention to it while making my picks until now: The Islanders go over.  Six games into the season, the Islanders were scuffling, and not really scoring.  Since their seventh game of the season, they’ve gone 18-3-1 if the over is six.  18 of 22 games seven goals or more have been scored.  So how can you go against that?  The Bruins are a tighter team defensively, but they can be scored on.  Tuukka Rask is getting the start tonight and he’s not having a great season.  Halak is at the other end, and he’s far from lights out anymore, and then you have the better odds on the over here for some reason.  It seems like so many picks I make these days I lay out a shit load of reasons just like this as to why things should go this way, and then the opposite happens.  Still, theme today is smart money and the smart money here has to be the over.

 

Toronto at Pittsburgh

Under 6 (+110)

YEP!  I believe this is the first time I’ve taken the under in a Leafs game, at least while making my picks.  It’s natural to look at this game and think “over 6, guaranteed”.  The Leafs though have really buttoned it up defensively in the last month.  If you were taking the over at six in their last 12 you’d be 2-8-2.  This is why you have to roll with the punches as the kids say.  The Pens don’t have Matt Murray right now, they’re playing Tristan Jarry, and they’ve hit seven in four of their last five at home, but again I stress that when you’re betting you’re looking for the best odds, not being right.  The under is paying out over double, and the Leafs are playing much tougher defensively these days and not lighting up goaltenders at near the rate they were, so the under is the smart bet to take here.

 

Vegas at Dallas

Stars -1.5 (+155)

I’m almost ready to tap on calling Vegas a fluke.  And they likely will be that come next season, but when you go into Nashville, and comeback from 3-2 down in the third to win, this team is now believing their own BS.  It’s like in 2015 you could see that happen with the Flames.  There just comes a point where it doesn’t matter how much of a fluke the team is (by the numbers), once they start believing they’re going to get the bounces, everyone on the team just starts playing a lot more loose and you start seeing career years all over the place.  Having said all this….they just played in Nashville last night while the Stars are waiting for them.  And the Stars will be ready to go, having lost back to back games to division rivals this week.  On top of all this, it’s Ben Bishop who is lights out at home (awful on the road, but awesome at home) against Maxime Legace in goal.  Smart bet here is definitely the Stars -1.5 paying out at double and a half.

 

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NHL Picks – Nov. 22nd, 2017

A ton of games tonight, and since I missed Saturday, and might miss this upcoming Saturday as I’ll be out of town, I figured I should put out some picks while on my lunch break…although I started this part last night.  So what I’m saying right now isn’t really fresh *insert joke about Gangnem Style here*.  Had another 2-3 day the last time around, couldn’t have had much shittier luck than I have doing these of late, but I’m still sitting at a record of 16-13-1 so far.  I’m going big today though, with seven bets instead of five.

 

Boston at New Jersey

Devils -115

This is real simple for me: The Devils are a better team this season, and they’re at home.  Add to this, they’re a bad matchup for the Bruins.  If you look at who the B’s have beaten lately, none of the teams would be considered overly fast (San Jose, LA, Minny, etc).  If you look at who they’ve lost to, most of those teams would be considered fast (Toronto, Columbus, NY Rangers, etc).  Add to this, Anton Khudobin is going for the B’s tonight, not Rask.  It’s not the greatest odds, but this line should probably be a lot heavier towards the Devils who I’m starting to believe are very real this season, much to my disbelief.

 

Calgary at Columbus

Flames +130

I’ve said it before and will say it again, the only difference between the Flames and Oilers this season was how much better Mike Smith has been than Cam Talbot.  But I say “was” instead of “is” because the Flames of late look like they’re putting it all together.  Three lines deep, of course the Travis Hamonic trade has been awful to this point but that blueline is still very solid, and Mike Smith has kept up his tremendous play.  The Blue Jackets are a great team, but not overpowering and the Flames much up with them very well.  This is about putting money on good odds.  If it’s -110 for each, I’m going with the Jackets.  But the Flames are undervalued here from what I’ve seen of them since the Detroit game a week ago, so I like them at +130.

 

Edmonton at Detroit

Red Wings -120

Much like with the Devils, the Wings are shockingly playing very well this season.  And we all know how awful the Oilers are playing of late, although you have to keep in mind that two of the last three loses have been a brutal matchup against the Blues, while the flu is running through their dressing room.  Not an excuse, but in betting you have to look for reasons.  With the flu being one of the reasons the Oilers are playing so brutal of late, no reason to think on the second half of a back to back (second game in less than 24 hours, the league shouldn’t even have back to backs let alone ones where the games start less than 24 hours after the last but that’s a piece for another day) that they’ll be good tonight, so at -120, not the greatest odds, but good enough to take the Wings as I fully expect them to pull away late and win with ease.

 

Toronto at Florida

Under 6 (-110)

This is simple for me.  In six of their last seven, the Panthers have gone under 6 goals.  In four of their last five, the Leafs have gone under 6 goals.  There is no reason right now for these teams to combine to score six goals or more.  Expect a low scoring Leafs win here.

 

Chicago at Tampa Bay

Over 6 (-105)

Kind of the opposite from the Leafs/Panthers game.  The Lightning have gone over in five of their last six, while the Hawks have gone over in three of their last four.  Plus, with how much offensive talent is on both sides here, it just feels like the smart move to say that this will go over, especially when you’re getting the better odds on the over than the under.

 

Dallas at Colorado

Over 6 (+100)

These odds are insane to me.  The Avs are on quite the streak.  What’s the streak?  12 straight games of going over!  And the Stars?  Well they went under last night, but prior to that had gone four straight of six (a push) or more.  Toss in here, it’s Jonathan Bernier in goal for the Avs, and Ben Bishop who has been a TRAINWRECK on the road this season.  Jump on this one HARD people!

 

Montreal at Nashville

Predators -1.5 (+130)

Preds have won four straight at home, the last three by two or more.  But the big reason for this bet is the disaster starting in goal for the Habs named Antti Niemi.  G.A.A. this season?  6.67.  Sv%?  .820.  And then the Habs are on the second half of a back to back.  This just screams Preds blowout.

 

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NHL Picks – Nov. 11, 2017

Damnit!  Back to back losing weeks.  2-3, now 14-10-1 on the season.  Last week wasn’t bad at all though, just really shitty luck.  The Jets had a 4-2 lead in the third period in their game against the Habs.  Canucks got a late one against the Pens to take that game from under to over, but didn’t in anyway feel guilty because that was the right pick.  I felt great about those picks, it just went poorly.  This week, once again I feel great about the picks this week so I’m likely due for a winning week.  It’s much like a team coming off a losing streak.  They seem to always lose one they deserve to win before they break out of it, and that was my one I deserved to win.

 

Edmonton at NY Rangers

Rangers -125

The payout isn’t all that great for this one, but knowing the Oilers the way I do I feel like this is easy money.  They’ve had two afternoon games so far this season.  The first one they looked horrendous in the first period, but luckily escaped only down 1-0 and righted the ship in the last 40 minutes, only to lose on a late goal.  The other was the abomination which took place at Rogers Place six days ago.  This team still lacks a ton of focus despite finally winning back to back games, and I don’t expect that to change today.  Meanwhile, the Rangers play afternoon games quite regularly, so this game should be no problem for them.  As of writing this, the number is -125.  But by the time you read this, I suspect you can get the Rangers at -110 or even better.

 

Edmonton at NY Rangers

Under 5.5 (+105)

I’ve rode the Leafs going over for a month now, and I believe the worst they did in that time was push.  The Oilers on the road are an under team.  The number is normally 5.5 for over/under’s, and their games have gone under every single time on the road this season.  So the fact that you can get the under at +105 is insane.   Plus, look at the scores around the league lately, a large amount of games with five goals or less.  Take this one and run.

 

Minnesota at Philadelphia

Flyers -1.5 (+235)

This is a calculated risk.  Two pretty evenly matched teams, but the Wild have been struggling this season and will be playing they third game in four nights.  The Flyers are a well rested team coming off a big 3-1 win over the Hawks at home on Thursday.  That was their first game in four days, so as I just said…they’re well rested.  So like I said it’s a calculated risk, but at +235 this feels like far too good of value to turn down.

 

Chicago at Carolina

Blackhawks +100

This is simple.  The Hurricanes played last night in Columbus while the Hawks have been sitting in Raleigh waiting for them.  I understand its a massive game for Scott Darling playing his ex teammates, but at +100 the Hawks are the smart money.

 

Winnipeg at Arizona

Coyotes +105

Same logic here as with the Hawks/Canes game.  The Coyotes were off last night while the Jets were in Vegas playing the Golden Knights.  The Jets are without a doubt the better team, but on the second half of a back to back.  And then look at the week the Coyotes have had.  Took the Caps to OT, played the Pens tough, took the Blues to a shootout and from all accounts deserved to get the win in regulation of that game.  So they’re due.  I really like the way the Jets have played this season, but they aren’t so good yet that the Yotes can’t win in this spot.

 

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