With the way these have gone since October, I’m not sure I should return to doing these. I have been so awful at these, and maybe I’m nuts but I actually feel like it’s shitty luck! Go read my rationale behind my picks, I feel like other maybe a game here or there over the last two months of picks I give damn good reasons as to why my picks should win, and they never win! I’m not even going to give the overall record this week, too pissed about it to count. It’s like five games under .500 on the season, it’s actually not that bad. But I could REALLY use a winning Saturday!
Winnipeg at Minnesota
Not the best odds here, but I guess they’re good enough. The odds are better than they should be for a weak road team playing on the second half of a back to back against a team waiting on them. The Wild last played Wednesday. So even though the Jets have had an incredible season and the Wild are fighting for a playoff spot, the fact that the Jets are so bad (normally) on the road makes me say you have to take the Wild here.
Colorado at Dallas
Over 5.5 (-110)
I believe the last time these two played I thought without a doubt they were going over. The Avs were always going over in their games, they had Bernier in net, and the Stars were starting Ben Bishop who had been awful on the road all season to that point. So naturally it was a 2-0 game…See what I mean when I say my picks are right and it’s just insanely shitty luck?!?!? ANYWAY…two teams coming off bye weeks, I’m expecting a lot of defensive break downs tonight much like we see early in the season when teams are still getting sharp.
Edmonton at Vegas
This so goes against everything for me! I cringe, no word of a lie, I’m truly cringing writing this! HOWEVER…the Golden Knights, as hot as they’ve been, are coming off their bye week. And so many teams take a game coming off a three or four day break to really find their groove. Meanwhile the Oilers played in Glendale last night, and are going on their bye after the game. So any temptation there might be to go hit up a casino pre game should be cooled by the fact that they can once the game is done. I know a lot of love is given to the theory that the only teams who are playing shitty in Vegas are those who get in a day before, but when teams play back to back they don’t skate the next morning. So don’t think they don’t have time to do shit too, and normally they’ll be flying out after the game. So I’m going to be really brave here. I can’t stand picking the Oilers, especially when they’ve been so shitty. But the sharp pick here is to take the Oilers. Add to all this, I have a feeling the Oilers goaltending will be real solid tonight. If they go with Talbot, he’s coming off getting pulled and as we know goaltenders often bounce back from that embarrassment (even though it was in no way on him). If they go with Montoya, he looked tremendous in relief last night and should be pretty fresh considering he hasn’t played much the last few months.
Arizona at San Jose
Same theory goes here. The Coyotes just played last night, while the Sharks have been off for a week. So we could see the same trend play out in both these games where the team having played last night will look great for the first period or two, and hang on to get the win. And at +215, those odds are just begging to be bet!
Anaheim at L.A.
Over 5.5 (+135)
Both teams are coming off bye weeks, so this is much like the over I picked in the Stars/Avs game. Also while writing this one I’m thinking back to an example of teams in similar situations which were the Jets and Oilers on Dec. 27th. That game ended up 4-3, but was 4-3 midway through the 2nd period before the two teams finally settled down. If the odds were the other way around I might go the other way. But I just think it’s ridiculous for the under to have been bet so hard here because these games where both teams are rusty are just insanely unpredictable. So I’m saying to take the over here.
Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups