NFL Week 16 Picks ATS
Ok, so I’m hungover while writing this (shout out to tall singles…you had to be there), and it’s late Friday night, running on 4 hours sleep, and I got Christmas gifts that need wrapping. Correction: I got Christmas gifts that I need to tell Steph to wrap for me. Anyway, nearly forgot to do this, but for the second week in a row I’m rushed to do this and there for this will be speedy. A .500 week last week going 2-2-1, now sitting at 38-31-7 on the season. A 9-1 or so finish to the season would really make me look smrter than I am…
Atlanta at Carolina
Panthers +3
When he doesn’t get touched, QB front runner is great! Also, the Panthers late in the season are great. I still really like the Falcons, but the Panthers are JUST BARELY still alive, even with a win here are likely dusted after this weekend, but as long as they’re alive I like the matchup here and believe they’ll win this one outright.
Minnesota at Green Bay
Packers -7
I’m a little nervous with this one, but if you just look at things rationally and where both these teams are headed, then the Packers should win this one in a blowout. And as you’ll see as I go on here today, the Packers come into this one as the desperate team. Nothing on the line for the Vikings, not even improving their pick because the Eagles own it, but the Packers really need this one because should they lose, the Lions all of a sudden have what could be a cupcake matchup in Dallas now that the Cowboys have clinched home field in the NFC.
Indianapolis at Oakland
Colts +3.5
Love this one here because the game is just so much bigger for the Colts than it is for the Raiders. The Colts are much like the Panthers where they’re not going to the playoffs, but the door is still just slightly open. When that’s the case, you don’t want to be the reason you miss the playoffs. You want other teams to knock you out. Also, I believe Andrew Luck should put points up on this Raiders D, and the Colts D is actually playing decent of late so they might get some stops. Don’t forget too that the Raiders clinched with a big win in San Diego, so coming off that high could prove to be dangerous for them. If you’re looking for an upset special this week, the Colts could be a real good bet.
Baltimore at Pittsburgh
Steelers -5.5
Seeing it’s the holidays, I have to put the Christmas day games on my picks. I’ve called the Ravens total frauds just about all season. I don’t see any reason to bail on that theory now, although there are certain teams who just seem to love to f*** you over during the season. But I just think this is a massive game for the Steelers (obviously, AFC North on the line), and the Steelers have been a sleepy team all season but this is one of those spots where they need to win so with desperation mixed with a big talent advantage I like the Steelers to win this one by a TD.
Denver at Kansas City
Broncos +3
I’ll admit, I like this pick the least this week. But yet again, the theme for this week, it’s all about who the more desperate team is. KC is essentially in, so this game is important for them, but I wouldn’t say vital. The Broncos though have to win or they’re done. I do think the Chiefs win the game, but I see it being a war in the trenches and nothing exciting to watch.
*Detroit at Dallas
Cowboys -7
Bonus pick here. DO NOT BET THIS YET!!! This all depends on what the Packers do. BUT…should the Packers win, take the Cowboys here as it would be great value. It’s a nothing game for the Cowboys now so why would you do such a thing? Because as I pointed out in my hot takes piece last week, this would be a nothing game for the Lions should the Packers win. Packers win, and it’s Packers v Lions for the NFC North in week 17 no matter what the Lions do against the Cowboys, so why play anyone? Especially when it would be a short week for the Lions, and the Packers will have an extra days rest. Add to this, since the Cowboys clinched on Thursday after the Giants loss, this line hasn’t moved. People have laid big money on the Lions, but the line has stayed at 7, indicating that Vegas is loving all the money going on the Lions. Wait on the Packers, and as soon as they’re in the clear…should they win…rush to put money on the Cowboys because the value on the bet would be ridiculous.
Over/Under
I’ve done poorly with these lately, so I don’t want to tell you my record…
Tennessee at Jacksonville
Over 44
The Jags with a new coach on the sidelines in Doug Marrone, so I believe what’ll happen in these final two games is they’ll play loose just looking to give the fans a show to end the season. Bortles with Robinson, Hurns, Lee and Thomas could really expose the Titans DB’s. The last time these two met, they combined for 58 points. Unless the weather is shitty in Northern Florida, I think 44 should be attainable.
San Francisco at Los Angeles
Over 39.5
Hell yeah this will go over!! Are you kidding me?! Two teams playing in LA with nothing to play for? I know they’re both gross, but they’ll just let if fly in this one. I honestly expect this to be a bit of a shootout. Maybe a 38-31 type game.
Guessing the Lines (week 17)
I don’t know what my record is on this, let’s just do it. Have to be within a point of the line. This one will be REALLY tricky because a lot of teams will have nothing to play for. So I’ll explain all my thoughts because you’ll be wondering why I’m thinking some of these lines will happen.
New Orleans at Atlanta -7 (I predict they have to win to clinch the South)
Baltimore -6 at Cincinnati (Ravens lose in Pittsburgh, but the Ravens will still be alive)
NY Giants at Washington -7 (Giants will have clinched, Redskins will have to win)
Houston at Tennessee -3 (This will likely be for the AFC South, should be tremendous)
Carolina at Tampa Bay -6.5 (Bucs will still be alive, Panthers will be done)
Green Bay -3.5 at Detroit (As long as the Packers don’t blow it against the Vikings, this is for the NFC North and the Packers will be the favorites)
Jacksonville at Indianapolis -6 (Nothing game for either, expect a ton of points put up)
New England at Miami -2.5 (This is really tough because Belichick won’t rest guys, but this is will be the biggest game for the Dolphins since 08 so I have to think they’ll be the favorite)
Chicago at Minnesota -3 (Nothing game for either team, Bears might take it with how hard they’re playing but I assume the Viks will still be the favorite)
Buffalo -6.5 at NY Jets (Bills beat the Dolphins and they could still have a heartbeat, yet even if they don’t I believe they’ll play hard for Rex Ryan in what’ll be his last game as head coach)
Dallas at Philadelphia -4 (Absolutely nothing game for the Cowboys. Eagles will play hard to get their fans a win against a hated rival)
Cleveland at Pittsburgh -14.5 (Tricky, because I’m not sure what the Steelers may have to play for. Might still be a shot at a bye, I’m honestly not sure. If they have something on the line, this will be a massive line)
Arizona -3.5 at Los Angeles (Cards being the more veteran team will be a bigger threat to lay down in the final game of the season, so this line won’t be what you’d think)
Oakland -3 at Denver (I think the Raiders might need this one to clinch or at least stay alive for the AFC West title. I doubt the Broncos will have anything to play for, but being the Raiders and the final home game of the season the Broncos will still play hard)
Kansas City -6.5 at San Diego (Same story here, AFC West could be on the line. BUT…possibly the last game in San Diego for the Chargers so if for some reason it’s a nothing game for the Chiefs I’d expect the Chargers to be the favorites)
Seattle -7.5 at San Francisco (This would be a bigger line if it meant anything to the Seahawks, but it likely won’t)
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