NFL Week 17 Picks ATS

Didn’t end up doing my hot takes piece last week.  Holidays, then got sick (still sick since I’m writing this on NYE at 11:16 PM, I don’t have a life but I at least have options on NYE so don’t call me a MASSIVE loser).  Don’t feel like writing this, but it’s the last week of the season and I want to see how I finish the season.  40-35-7 on the season, 5-0 sure would be sweet to cap things off as I like the way 10 games over .500 sounds.  This is always a near impossible week to bet though.  I think 5-0 or 0-5 are a lot more likely than 3-2 or 2-3 because of the unpredictability here.

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Bengals +1.5

Where is the motivation for the Ravens in this game?  I think the Bengals take this one outright because after a shitty season they’ll likely look to play well for their fans in their season finale.  I guess the Ravens MIGHT put up a fight for Steve Smith, but I just prefer home teams in these meaningless games.  So with the Bengals getting points, I like this bet.

Chicago at Minnesota

Bears +6.5

The Bears have fought pretty hard down the stretch.  They suck, but they’ve battled.  The Vikings have simply fallen apart.  I like the team who more so met expectations (the Bears) than the team that failed to live up to expectations (the Vikings).  The Viks were expected to go deep into the playoffs, and everything fell apart.  There for I feel like 6.5 is just too many points to give the Bears.

Oakland at Denver

Broncos -1.5

I’m really not understanding why the Broncos aren’t favored by more here.  It’s such a massive blow for the Raiders losing Derek Carr.  And the Broncos motivation will be to help ruin the party for the Raiders possibly winning the AFC West.  They won’t let the Raiders celebrate that on their field.  Plus, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch are expected to play, and likely will be auditioning for next season.  The Raiders would LIKE to win, but in the back of their heads they have to know their season is done despite going to the playoffs.

Seattle at San Francisco

Seahawks -10

It’s a massive number.  But the reports say the Niners are about to gut the franchise, so that’ll be a massive distraction for this squad.  And then the Seahawks need a win to keep home field possibilities alive.  With the Falcons playing at the same time, the Seahawks won’t know whether or not their shot at 2nd in the NFC is dead while they’re on the field.  So I would GUESS the Seahawks go up big early, pull their starters at the half, and I really believe the Niners will quit.

Green Bay at Detroit

Packers -3.5

It just feels like the Packers are red hot and the Lions completely missed the boat.  I’m not a fan of “gut feel” when it comes to betting, but it’s overwhelming going into this game.  Added to this is that the Packers had an extra day off this week and the Lions are on a short week.  Now, I do think the Lions were looking forward to this game on Monday night, but Jim Caldwell should have got his starters out of that game early because this was essentially the must win game.  Just horrible vibes from the Lions, great ones from the Packers, I suspect the Packers win this one going away.

Over/Under

Dallas at Philadelphia

Over 44

Tony Romo?  Mark Sanchez?  I don’t think it matters, what’ll matter is Philly desperately wanting to run it up on the Cowboys for their fans.  The Cowboys aren’t going to stop anyone in this game, so Carson Wentz will put up big numbers.  Philly might put up 45 on their own since they have zero to lose.

Jacksonville at Indianapolis

Over 47

What I’m looking for this week in particular is 2 teams with talented offenses who have nothing to play for.  That way they should be really lose and just looking to put up big numbers.  The Jags with an interim coach who knows he’s not getting the job will do just that.  And the Colts are always a threat to put 30 up at home.

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