NFL Divisional Weekend Picks ATS

Divisional round, divisional weekend, I don’t ever know what the f*** to call this weekend.  Wild card weekend, Conference championship weekend, this weekend doesn’t seem to have a proper name.  Anyway, you can figure it out.  It’s my picks against the spread which didn’t do AS bad as they normally do on wild card weekend.  2-2, although 2-3 a loss on the over/under pick.  But normally I get killed on wild card weekend.  There is definitely a trend on wild card weekend in that the games in the last five seasons seem to go either all one way, or all the other.  Anyway, while I normally get crushed on THAT weekend, I normally kick ass on THIS weekend.  Last three seasons I’m 10-2 picking this weekend.  Hopefully that will be a trend that continues.

Seattle at Atlanta

Falcons -5.5

This is messed up line, and it keeps moving the opposite way it should be.  I’m looking at this initially and I’m thinking “no WAY the Seahawks being the proven playoff team with the proven playoff QB and still a dominant defense, NO FREAKING WAY should they be 5 point dogs” (now 5.5).  I have to think that Vegas is baiting people into putting their money on the Seahawks.  So even though I had the Seahawks winning this game with my playoff preview, I don’t trust this line at all and am going to bet it the other way here.  I’m expecting a great game here though.

Houston at New England

Patriots -16

It’s a monster number, but I just cannot see this going another way.  I think the Texans could come out hard early, make people nervous about this line at the half perhaps being within 3 or 6, but then Belichick will make his adjustments and they’ll run away with it.  Osweiler will get badly exposed in this one, Brady will be able to overcome that good (yet I don’t believe they’re great) Texans defense, and in the end the score won’t be close.

Green Bay at Dallas

Packers +4.5

Aaron Rodgers vs a rookie QB.  A damn good rookie QB, but still a rookie QB.  I’m taking Rodgers.  Let’s not forget too that the Packers beat the Cowboys just two seasons ago in Lambeau on this same weekend.  Now you might throw the Dez Bryant disaster at me and say the Cowboys should have won, but you also had Rodgers on essentially one leg playing that game.  There was a lot of worry that Rodgers wouldn’t be able to play in that game going into it.  Yet he still won.  The key here will be the Cowboys defense as it’ll be up to them to at least limit Rodgers early.  If they can, it’ll be tough for the Packers to comeback.  But I don’t think they can.  Even without Jordy Nelson, I just think Rodgers and the Packers are too hot right now for the Cowboys to deal with.

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

Steelers +1

So basically take the Steelers outright here.  And kind of the same thing here as with the Cowboys v Packers game.  The better TEAM top to bottom are the Chiefs, and I believe they’ll put up a hell of a fight (I think this is going to be a tremendous game).  But in the end, Roethlisberger vs Alex Smith in the playoffs?  I don’t care where the game is, and I know Andy Reid’s record is incredible coming off bye’s, but you have to take Roethlisberger in that scenario.  This is that scenario.  Also, I don’t see who would have an advantage with a storm.  Both teams have great running games, so to me that’s a wash.  But one thing I do like is while I harp on how the Steelers playing up and down to their opponents, I have to believe they’ll be up for this one.

Green Bay at Dallas

Over 53.5

If the Packers are going to win, chances are that this line will go over.  It’s that simple.  I’d love to go on and on about it, but that’s what it comes down to.  No weather issues, average defenses, great offenses, it’s a big number but take the over.

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