Here we go! My final list of 62. Not a lot of changes from the last list two weeks ago, but a few. Some fine tuning I guess you could call it. I’m sure there will be some rankings which I kick myself over in about 24 hours when I see teams take certain guys, and see their logic for loving that kid and going “yes, why the f*** didn’t I think of that?!” Oh well, can’t win’em all…or even that many when it comes to ranking 18 and 19 year old kids.
As for what I look for? The main thing I look to do is view it as if I were a GM. So I like guys who have the most value above all else, not necessarily how I believe they’ll pan out. You start getting into the late first/early second round and it just makes more sense for some teams to take a big swing at that point rather than on a kid with a low ceiling. I really look at trends, so I put risers higher than most, and guys falling lower than most (unless of course I feel the rise or fall is unwarranted). I also like rare, so I might value things like elite speed, elite size or right handed shooting centres and D more than most. I’m starting to put more and more stock into birth dates. So for this draft in particular, late 1998 birth dates I tend to pay more attention to their numbers from last season, and I also put stock into guys who are near the youngest among the draft class. Five on five points scoring is a big deal to me and something that can get overlooked so I try to find those stats. I’m also really into building a team not just compiling talent, so I put a big premium on centres and D-men over wingers. Finally, I tier my prospects. I’m not sure why more lists aren’t done this way (a few are), it makes much more sense to me and I have been told that this is how most NHL teams tend to look at things as well. So pay more attention to the tier a guy is in and less as to what the number is beside his name.
Also did my final mock draft today so if you’re interested on how the pieces may fit: http://soupsonhockey.com/2017/06/23/2017-nhl-mock-draft-5-0/
I think I’ve tied up all the loose ends, so let’s get going.
1. Nolan Patrick Brandon WHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’2 Wt: 199 Shot: R
Comparison: Mark Scheifele
I’m surprised. Last time out I projected most to be falling in love with Hischier as their top guy, but for the most part I’m still mostly seeing Patrick as the top guy coming in. The injuries are a concern no doubt, but we aren’t talking knee or back injuries, so I don’t believe the groin and collarbone stuff should be a long term concern. A lot of scouts, for some insane reason, think that if a guy’s skill level isn’t off the charts that he can’t produce big numbers. He does all the little things that’ll help him produce big numbers. He’s a kid who’ll be a coaches dream. He’ll be a cornerstone piece for whichever franchise gets him. Even if that’s only as a real solid 2nd line centre, he will still be a vital piece to any teams puzzle.
2. Nico Hischier Halifax QMJHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’1.5 Wt: 179 Shot: L
Comparison: Kyle Turris
One thing I noticed watching him first at the World Junior’s and then in the top prospects game, he’s bigger than I thought. It turns out, that observation was accurate as he measured at a very respectable 6’1.5 at the combine. Of course he’s slender right now, but being 6’1 he could get up close to 200 pounds without it hurting his wheels. Great vision, great shot, can pick teams apart on the PP. The big thing you’re hearing now is how good his 200 foot game is which if we’re talking about a potential first line centre is an absolute must. Neither of these top two guys are locks to be first line centres in the league, but as I said with Patrick which will be true here with Hischier, both are going to be vital pieces to any teams puzzle.
3. Timothy Liljegren Rogle SHL
Pos: RD Ht: 5’11.25 Wt: 180 Shot: R
Comparison: Kris Letang
I managed to stand my ground all season! Liljegren isn’t moving down my list. The reason he didn’t is because I believe the reason everyone else was knocking him down (for having mono) was just ridiculous. As a friend said to me “he’s probably lost 20 pounds!” If his weight at the start of the season was to be believed, he for sure lost 11 pounds. Scouts did the same thing with Sean Couturier and Colin White. I understand if that makes teams hesitant, but it wouldn’t scare me off, especially in a draft that is so weak at the top, and I still believe long term this kid is going to be a star. He plays really smooth, really mobile, terrific in the offensive zone especially running a pp, some question his decision making in his own zone yet you never heard that pre mono. He’s exactly what a lot of teams lack. With how difficult it is to find a high end RH shot D-man, I’d hope front offices wouldn’t be SO stupid to let a prospect like this slide to the 10-20 range, but it seems likely.
4. Cody Glass Portland WHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’1.75 Wt: 178 Shot: R
Comparison: Charlie Coyle
Glass makes the jump ahead of Vilardi for me. I believe Vilardi is the better player currently, but once Glass fills out I have to believe he ends up as the better player because of skating ability of both players. Glass is a very good skater, once he fills out to 200-205 pounds he’ll be a very nice size, and from everything I can find he’s a very intelligent kid. His interview with Jeff Marek and Sam Cosentino at the combine was awesome too, seems like a terrific kid. Wasn’t just giving standard answers, very engaging. I don’t see him having first line centre capabilities, but I do see him being that elite second line centre which no team can win a Cup without. Back in January when I did my top 32 list, I had him ninth which was higher than anyone, and I kept asking myself what the big flaw is? Hell, he’s even a right handed shot which is a tougher find around the league. Guess I got that one right, because this kid has shot up everyone’s list
5. Gabe Vilardi Windsor OHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’2.75 Wt: 203 Shot: R
Comparison: Nathan Horton
A new comparison for Vilardi here and it’s pretty spot on I must say. In his draft year, Horton’s numbers were extremely similar to what Vilardi did this season. Horton was drafted as a centre, but ended up on the wing. Vilardi is listed as a centre, but spent most of the season on the wing and some think he’s better suited for the wing. Size is very similar between the two, both are righties, and the elite puck protection abilities are very similar. The only difference is that Horton never felt like he had the vision to play the middle in my mind. It’s not as if I’ve watched Vilardi a ton, but when I have, he seems to be a guy who can equally create for himself or his linemates. You definitely draft him to be a centre.
6. Elias Pettersson Timra SWE-Als
Pos: C Ht: 6’1.75 Wt: 165 Shot: L
Comparison: Alex Galchenyuk
There was some question whether or not he was a centre, but that seems to be put to rest, although long term he could end up being a better fit on the wing much like Vilardi. But his talent and IQ are tremendous, and he really plays a solid 200 foot game. The other thing is that even if he does end up a winger, like Vilardi, is his game is to be a driver offensively. Right now he’s rail thin obviously, but a lot of scouts are in love with this kids upside because of that. His numbers this season were off the charts good. 0.95 PPG this season. At the same age, Filip Forsberg was 0.87 PPG. David Pastrnak was 0.67 PPG. Those are pretty damn good players he’s out scoring!! I’ve seen some question his toughness. Tough to say when he’s this slight if he’ll get more brave so to speak once he’s up to 185-195 pounds.
7. Miro Heiskanen HIFK SM Liiga
Pos: RD Ht: 6’0 Wt: 172 Shot: L
Comparison: Mark Giordano
Top D-man on the board for probably everyone but myself. Heiskanen saw pretty big minutes for HIFK which is pretty rare for a kid in his draft year. He might have the best stick defensively out of any kid in this draft, and engages physically though at his size he tends to lose a lot more of those battles than he wins. He provides everything you would expect a D-man ranked this high and at this size to have. Speed, escapability, great passer, great vision, the only flaw other than his size for me is he doesn’t have a big shot. He likes using a wrist or snap shot on the point, which can work just fine as it has for the player I compare him to. Get the shot through and let your forwards to the rest. I’m not sure he will put up the numbers Giordano does, but a very similar skill set and game.
8. Cale Makar Brooks AJHL
Pos: RD Ht: 5’11.25 Wt: 187 Shot: R
Comparison: Brian Campbell
Makar is as flashy of a defenceman as there is. He needs to prove he can play without the puck though. That’s a vital trait for centre’s and wingers let alone D-men! If he’s a coachable kid, and that’s where the interview process really comes into play, then that would alleviate a lot of my concern. He will likely need in my opinion either two years at UMass or a year at UMass and at least a bit of time in the AHL, but if he goes top five, which at this point it sure looks that way, he easily could be rushed. A right handed shooting D who can fly and has the confidence with the puck that this kid has is very intriguing. It’s one of the toughest pieces to find in the NHL. He isn’t afraid to mix it up physically either. I’ve seen him play a lot, and understand the intrigue. But I have my concerns with what may happen with his development.
9. Martin Necas Brno Czech
Pos: C Ht: 6’1 Wt: 178 Shot: R
Comparison: Ales Hemsky
I fully admit, this has just been a miss by me having him as low as I have the last go around based off bad information I had seen/read. This is why I’m not a pro! The guys who actually do the scouting, while I disagree with some of the ways they look at things, they know all these kids extremely well. Anyway, my bad. Necas, while I never HATED him by any means, deserves to be ranked a lot higher than I had him. I compare him to Hemsky simply because no matter where he plays, he has that same level of confidence with the puck and is much more of a playmaker than a shooter. Obviously Hemsky has never been a centre, but if you’ve seen Hemsky play you know what I’m talking about. He might need a year or two to pack on the pounds, but he has the frame to do so. So if you assume he’s going to be 6’1 and around 190-200 pounds and a RH shot centre…I feel ridiculous for having him ranked so low the last time around, don’t know what I was thinking honestly.
10. Casey Mittelstadt Eden Prairie USHS
Pos: C Ht: 5’11.5 Wt: 199 Shot: L
Comparison: Derick Brassard
If you don’t follow Zac Urback on Twitter and you’re a draft fan, do it now. The guy does tremendous work! He pointed out that Mittelstadt is feasting off five on four play. Sam Gagner did that, and Gagner has never become the player he was expected to be. It’s tough, because you try to juggle how a kid’s skill set will translate, their numbers this season, their past numbers, upside, bust potential, etc. For Mittelstadt, even though he has that black eye on his resume, I have a tough time putting him lower than this thanks to the toolkit he possesses. Speed, skill, willingness to play 200 feet, real good down low. In time I do believe he can learn to play five on five and become a complete player because he really does have all the tools to become that player.
11. Lias Andersson HV71 SHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’11 Wt: 201 Shot: L
Comparison: Samuel Pahlsson
Andersson is a pretty safe bet to play in the league someday soon. Independent scouts and fans won’t like him as much as GM’s and coaches will. He’s good at everything, and his elite skill is likely his hockey sense, which is why I believe he’s not higher on lists for some people. There is some concern about his upside, but when I think of all around centres like this who aren’t the sexiest of prospects. My comparison of Pahlsson doesn’t help that image. But I gave a lot of thought to using guys like Bo Horvat and Patrice Bergeron as the comparison. Maybe it’s just because he’s a centre who has a similar build to those two guys, but I can’t help but think of Andersson as that kind of player. Extremely low bust potential. Close to a sure thing as a third line centre, upside I’d say is to be a high end second line centre. He’s the type of kid teams win with.
12. Nick Suzuki Owen Sound OHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’11 Wt: 183 Shot: R
Comparison: T.J. Oshie
Put up awesome numbers (96 points in 65 games, 21 points in 14 playoff games), but this kid is going to play in the show because he’s always engaged. Has a tremendous motor. I can see him being a guy who’ll do whatever it takes to play in the league someday. The big concern is with how his game will translate, because he’s a bit undersized (for a centre) and doesn’t have bad wheels but not the type of speed you’d like a player his size to have. In limited viewings, I really believe it’s just a matter of gaining lower body strength. Top end speed looks good, just doesn’t seem to have the strength yet needed for those first few steps to be explosive. But he can play in any situation (five short handed goals this season), has a good shot, good vision, I mentioned the motor and he’s always willing to engage physically. He said at the combine he tries to model his game after Patrice Bergeron. If he can do that, I’ll love him even more. To me, the worst case scenario with him is that he can’t play the middle in the pro’s. So I see Suzuki as a very safe pick.
13. Robert Thomas London OHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’11.5 Wt: 192 Shot: R
Comparison: Scott Gomez
I watch the kid and he just looks like he has everything it takes to excel in the NHL. Great wheels, obviously not big but his size is fine, has that right handed shot which I never shut up about, high IQ, and he’s a tremendous playmaker who can change his pace of play. He’s so damn smooth out there and makes the game look easy. The more ice he’s seen this season, the better he’s been. PPG player this season, and stayed pretty close to that clip in the playoffs with 12 points in 14 games. Another great stat for him, only 14 of 66 points on the PP. Obviously not near the numbers that Nick Suzuki had, but Thomas didn’t see that kind of ice time and likely has the higher ceiling of the two. I seen Craig Button be critical of his goal totals. No doubt, he needs to shoot more (like Gomez) as is the case with so many pure playmakers. But I wouldn’t confuse “didn’t score” with “can’t score”.
14. Erik Brannstrom HV71 SWE J20
Pos: LD Ht: 5’9 Wt: 179 Shot: L
Comparison: Sami Vatanen
His numbers and size aren’t much different from what Erik Karlsson had in 08, and we all saw the show he just put on. Not a chance I’m going to say he can be that good, but the kid can really deal. He has the speed, smarts and quickness to makeup for his lack of size. As high as I now have him, I’m betting he goes even higher in the draft. With how vital puck moving D have been this spring, and how great an undersized guy like Karlsson was in the playoffs, guaranteed teams picking high will be looking to scoop up all the top D. For all the love I give Brannstrom and Makar though, tough to see either as a franchise D-man due to their size. There’s only one Erik Karlsson.
15. Juuso Valimaki Tri-City WHL
Pos: LD Ht: 6’1.25 Wt: 211 Shot: L
Comparison: Oscar Klefbom
What I really like about Valimaki is what I read about his play in his own zone. The headliner with him will be his 61 points in 60 games played. But he will get his nose dirty with the physical stuff, has a great stick in his own zone, and he already has the thick frame to hold up to the punishment. His point totals suggest he’s flashy, but he really isn’t, which is where the comparison to Klefbom comes in. This kid is just very solid at both ends of the ice and doesn’t really have a flaw in his game. He has a bit of swagger out there which I really like as well.
16. Kristian Vesalainen Frolunda SHL
Pos: LW Ht: 6’3 Wt: 209 Shot: L
Comparison: James Van Riemsdyk
At midseason I had read that his skating wasn’t very good. As the season has gone on though, I hear and read more and more that his skating is either fine, or pretty good! I do subscribe to the theory that he’s struggled a lot of the season due to changing leagues. The ice size is different in Sweden and Finland, so it becomes an adjustment and making that adjustment in season can’t be easy. His U18’s however suggested he’s still one of the top wingers in this draft. So if the skating ability checks out, and he has this kind of size, and a legit reason for his inconsistency this season, I like him up in this range.
17. Owen Tippett Mississauga OHL
Pos: RW Ht: 6’0.5 Wt: 203 Shot: R
Comparison: Joffrey Lupul
I just don’t understand the love in for Tippett, and am starting to see more scouts see it this way. Don’t in anyway confuse that for me not liking him, but I prefer mutli dimensional players and he in no way projects to be that. He’s a lot like Kieffer Bellows in last year’s draft, who lots of scouts seemingly loved more than NHL teams did. Speed, top two shot with Eeli Tolvanen in the draft, and decent size. For the right team, I think he’d be a great addition. But I’ve made this point the last few years and I’ll make it again. Snipers are a luxury, not a necessity. Teams picking high in the draft are building a house and they need to make sure they have the foundation poured and a roof on over their heads before they start building the kick ass man cave.
18. Callan Foote Kelowna WHL
Pos: RD Ht: 6’4 Wt: 215 Shot: R
Comparison: Jake Muzzin
I’ve said it before, but saying he “isn’t his dad” is probably premature because Adam put up similar numbers in junior and became a stay at home shutdown defender. Make no mistake, Cal moves the puck real well and is pretty effective on the PP. His skating is awkward, but he can get there. Having said this, I don’t see Cal as a kid who’ll put up great offensive numbers. I do see him as a kid who can be a shutdown defender, much like his old man was. If he can put up points as well, great! That’ll likely depend largely on the PP time he can get. But if you want different comparisons, I see him as a Jake Muzzin, Adam Larsson, Marc Methot type of guy. All these guys CAN put up numbers (Muzzin in particular has had a good offensive season), but first and foremost they’re shutdown guys. Maybe his ceiling is a Brent Seabrook type who gets it done at both ends of the ice.
19. Nicolas Hague Mississauga OHL
Pos: RD Ht: 6’5.5 Wt: 207 Shot: L
Comparison: Colten Parayko
He’s a little like Liljegren in that I believe in that scouts are picking him apart rather than asking themselves what Hague brings to the table. He should be shooting back up boards after a fantastic playoffs by all accounts, yet he’s still dropping on most lists and I frankly just don’t get it. You see a kid who is 6’5, 208 and you think defensive D-man who is basically a coke machine. Hague is actually very active offensively, and it’s his defensive game which needs the work. A lot of the Parayko comparison (other than his similar size) comes from his bomb of a point shot and how much he utilizes it. So what’s the problem? Do scouts think he’s dumb? Scholastic player of the year last season, so I don’t think he’s out and out dumb. One thing I know is he needs to clean up his skating. Top speed he’s fine, first step and lateral movement needs to improve though. All of his shortcomings however are things that can be fixed, so the potential for Hague to be a top pairing D-man is definitely there.
20. Ryan Poehling St.Cloud State NCAA
Pos: C Ht: 6’1.75 Wt: 177 Shot: L
Comparison: Viktor Rask
Unless I got my numbers confused, he weighed in WAY less than what he had been listed at during the season (202). But he’s 18 going on 30! If you can find his media scrum from the combine, I’d never buy that this kid is 18 years old the way he handled it. Had a great Ivan Hlinka this summer, one of the best players in the tournament, but then struggled making the jump to the NCAA this season, and then finished his season with a real strong U18’s. So was the NCAA season just a product of limited ice time and being so young while playing against more developed kids? Real good size, seems to be committed to learning a 200 foot game, good hands, good vision, high end speed is good, the foot speed is really the only concern but foot speed can be fixed. There is no real reason to believe this kid can’t be at least a 3rd line centre in the NHL and definitely has the upside to be a solid 2nd line centre.
21. Michael Rasmussen Tri-City WHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’5.5 Wt: 221 Shot: L
Comparison: Nik Antropov
Normally I’m a total homer for a kid with this kid of size and skating ability. Last year we had Logan Brown, but Brown is a pure playmaker. I’m not a big fan of centres who are shoot first guys. Add to that, while he had 55 points in 50 games this season, a lot of that damage was done on the PP. There is still a lot of intrigue with Rasmussen without a doubt, can’t ignore the combination of size and speed. But I can’t put him so high knowing nearly half his points are coming five on four. He has shown to be committed to playing a 200 foot game, but I won’t be at all surprised if he ends up being a winger in the show. I believe GM’s are going to have him higher than I do, but then again Logan Brown was expected to go in the top five or six last year and ended up going 11th.
22. Kailer Yamamoto Spokane WHL
Pos: RW Ht: 5’7.5 Wt: 146 Shot: R
Comparison: Cam Atkinson
He’s tiny (his weight at the combine as you can read was even less than what it had been listed at, and it was already far too light), and I likely wouldn’t have him as a first rounder most seasons. But this season, he’s worth using a first round pick on. 99 points in 65 games, he’s got a high motor, obviously a ton of speed and skill, and despite his stature is pretty willing to go anywhere on the ice. Obviously he’s not going to dish out the punishment, but he doesn’t shy away from the corners or front of the net. You have to keep in mind with him though that he’s only a few weeks younger in a few cases than last year’s picks (9/29/98). His numbers, while great, weren’t really eye popping for an 18 year old season. But he’s an offensive driver, and I believe he can continue to be that in the NHL someday.
23. Eeli Tolvanen Sioux City USHL
Pos: RW Ht: 5’9.25 Wt: 189 Shot: L
Comparison: Mike Cammalleri
A winger who if he isn’t scoring isn’t contributing anything, I am by no means suggesting he can’t play or produce in the NHL, I just see a player of this ilk as an easy piece to acquire. A pure sniper with a tremendous shot, it’s a sexy type of player. But something that I try to consider in a draft is a players stock value. Tolvanen could easily end up having better career point totals than some, maybe even a lot of the forwards I have ahead of him. A 5’10, one dimensional winger isn’t exactly a tough find in the NHL. You can find this type of player for cheap in free agency, and they’re always available at the trade deadline. Centres, defencemen, wingers with size, these guys are difficult to find. So while the bust rate might be lower on a guy like Tolvanen, the impact they actually have on a team is limited and should things go South they have virtually zero trade value. At least when considering a player like Tippett, he has decent size and great speed to go with that big shot. Something else I’ve read on Tolvanen is that he didn’t interview well at the combine.
24. Pierre-Olivier Joseph Charlottetown QMJHL
Pos: LD Ht: 6’2.25 Wt: 163 Shot: L
Comparison: Calvin de Haan
The more I gave this thought, the more I found myself saying “he had similar numbers to Jokiharju, has four inches on him (HEIGHT…head out of the gutter), skates just as well and perhaps better, and is better defensively…why do I have him six spots lower?!” Joseph feels like a kid who is going to go much higher than expected. I can see a team looking at him and saying “worst case scenario he takes a regular shift, with proper development he’s a top pairing kid”. It’s a fair way to look at it. One guy who immediately sprung to mind is T.J. Brodie. Similar height, similar size once Joseph fills out, and similar numbers in their draft years. But I went with de Haan as the comparison, mainly because I see a kid who is great in his own zone and does a lot of the dirty work that doesn’t show up on the score sheet, yet can really skate and move the puck. But he definitely has the offensive upside to take his game to another level.
25. Henri Jokiharju Portland WHL
Pos: RD Ht: 5’10.75 Wt: 188 Shot: R
Comparison: Tobias Enstrom
It’s crazy the amount of talent that Finland has produced of late, which makes it even more puzzling why they were so horrendous at the WJC this year. Jokiharju feels like he’s becoming a forgotten man in this years draft crop, but his tools and numbers matchup with all the other top D-men. He’s just a pure puck mover. Great skater, passes the puck very well whether it be with zone exits or on the PP, and maybe his best attribute is how good of a stick he has defensively. He isn’t real flashy, but he is very effective.
26. Jaret Anderson-Dolan Spokane WHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’11 Wt: 191 Shot: L
Comparison: Nick Bonino
One of my favourite comparisons, and this kicks off a group of three guys who I see as potentially very undervalued centres who can become second line centres, but most likely are high end third line centres. Anderson-Dolan’s best trait is that he has one of the best motors in this draft. He’s also one of the youngest players in this draft (9/12/99) and was over a PPG player this season for the Chiefs. Great skater (better than Bonino) with a great 200 foot game who can be abrasive out there too. Last time I said I was tempted to have him up higher, and this time around I couldn’t resist. The numbers, the birthdate, motor, I just think this kid has the makeup to be an overachiever. I might have him ranked higher than anyone and I frankly don’t understand why. I’ve seen some be critical of his skill level, but I can think of a lot more centres who don’t have that elite skill level, are never going to dangle and toe drag defenders, but have great success in the league and better than a lot of guys who can. I think of a kid I was higher on than most last year in Michael McLeod and said that same thing all year. At the moment, the scouting community is raving about McLeod. Right. Because he’s just a complete player. You don’t get any extra goals thanks to how pretty it was.
27. Josh Norris USA NTDP USHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’0.5 Wt: 189 Shot: L
Comparison: Shawn Horcoff
The star of the fitness testing, which basically means nothing. John McFarland tested tremendous at the combine in 2010. All that stuff is for is to find red flags. It’s not to separate a guy who tests real good from a guy who doesn’t test good. The most important part of the combine is the interview process. Anyway, I’m seeing conflicting scouting reports on his skating ability, which for me, with this type of player, is huge. If the skating checks out then this is a good spot for him. Can easily be one of those third line centres who makes his way into the top six often because of how many things he does so well (much like Horcoff did, Tyler Bozak does). If it doesn’t though, I don’t think I’d consider him until the third round. Most of his offensive damage was done five on five so I really like that. He’s going to Michigan in the fall.
28. Shane Bowers Waterloo USHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’1.5 Wt: 178 Shot: L
Comparison: Brandon Dubinsky
Love this comparison. I should point out, Bowers is a Canadian kid despite playing in the USHL, so don’t think I just compared a 6’1 American centre to another 6’1 American centre. But if you think of the way Dubinsky plays, it is extremely similar to the way Bowers plays. He’ll be in a guys face all night, and as we’ve seen this season with Nazem Kadri, that is the type of centre all teams would love to have on their team. Much like Mittelstadt and Rasmussen though, Bowers is a big producer five on four, and weak numbers five on five, so for that reason he falls a bit in my rankings. Having said that, I don’t see why he can’t develop into a perfect third line centre. Going to Boston University in the fall.
29. Mason Shaw Medicine Hat WHL
Pos: LW Ht: 5’8.5 Wt: 173 Shot: L
Comparison: Viktor Arvidsson
I’m always going to have a little bit of bias towards a kid who is local and played a lot of high end hockey in Lloyd. But I’m even more bias towards a kid who plays this style. Shaw plays gritty, has a really high IQ, and is completely fearless on the ice. Arvidsson was who I finally settled on for the comparison (not as good of a skater), but another I gave thought to was Brad Marchand. I wouldn’t ever expect a career year like Marchand just had, but his second and third year major junior numbers are pretty similar to what Marchand’s were. One of the knocks I’ve read on Shaw is he’s not “dynamic” enough. Well was Marchand ever that dynamic? Is Brendan Gallagher? Dynamic is one of those words that people can get too wrapped up in, much like “game breaker”. It’s the same thing I said in my write up on Anderson-Dolan. If I’m running a team, I could care less if a guy scores highlight reel goals, it means nothing. Shaw also had tremendous numbers five on five this season. Better than Yamamoto (73-64), better than Glass (73-72). He won’t go in the first round, and might not even go until the third (he was only an honourable mention on McKenzie’s list which meant he was between 94-100). But these are my rankings, and I believe the kid is going to be a flat out steal for somebody.
30. Jason Robertson Kingston OHL
Pos: LW Ht: 6’2 Wt: 196 Shot: L
Comparison: Patrick Maroon
I am extremely worried about the speed, be lying if I wasn’t. One thing that I heard pointed out (I believe I heard Mark Edwards from hockeyprospect.com) was that his skating might have been hurt in large part due to his conditioning. He did not test well at the combine, and that actually could be a bonus. He’s this good now, imagine what he’ll do once he’s in good shape! But even if that isn’t the case, I feel much like how you can have a few small guys in the lineup, you can afford to have two or three slower guys in your lineup…as long as they can play with pace. Robertson can because he’s so intelligent. He DOMINATED the OHL like few others in the second half of the season and into the playoffs. Brock Otten had a stat where in his final 25 games of the season (including playoffs) he nearly averaged two points a game. That is unreal for a kid who was draft eligible and didn’t have much talent surrounding him. Hockey sense is off the charts and he’s extremely difficult to knock off the puck. A candidate to go much earlier than expected.
31. Filip Chytil Zlin CZE-Jr
Pos: C Ht: 6’1.5 Wt: 192 Shot: L
Comparison: Rickard Rakell
Has become a big time riser as this season has wore on. Looked great at the U18’s. Great speed, vision, good shot, willing to go to any area on the ice, has some grit, plays a 200 foot game, really the only knock on him is going to be that he needs more time. Watch for this kid to go late first round on draft day, as he really doesn’t have much of a flaw, just wasn’t showcased as often as others and maybe viewed as a bit of a project. Might be viewed as a winger as opposed to playing the middle in the pros.
32. Urho Vaakanainen Jyvaskala SM Liiga
Pos: LD Ht: 6’0.5 Wt: 188 Shot: L
Comparison: Nick Schultz
It gets a little redundant after a while, but Vaakanainen is much like most other smallish puck moving D-men. Great skater, moves the puck well (obviously), decision making is suspect at times, keeps a good gap defensively, good stick. He’s a safe pick, I’d say the big question mark with him right now is how much can his offensive game grow because at his size you expect a guy who can put up at least 30-40 points from the back end.
33. Conor Timmins S.S. Marie OHL
Pos: RD Ht: 6’1.5 Wt: 184 Shot: R
Comparison: Mark Pysyk
I love that he’s not your standard puck moving, won’t get his nose dirty type D-man. He plays with aggression in the D zone, in addition to putting up good numbers, being a right handed shot (there it is again), and being a kid who can play in any situation. Late birthday has him just a bit behind Jokiharju for me, but I see him as being right there and maybe a bit of a safer pick.
Pos: G Ht: 6’4.25 Wt: 218 Glove: L
Comparison: Braden Holtby
This tier might as well be called “the boom or bust” tier, because with these five guys I see big time potential, but they’re risky. As weak as this draft is shaping up to be, the one that looks stronger than most years is goaltending. Oettinger, Mike DiPietro, Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen, Ian Scott, Cayden Primeau, Keith Petruzzelli, Maxim Zuhkov, there are a LOT of goaltenders in everyone’s top 50-75. Now, perhaps that’s great goaltending, or that’s a product of a weak draft so the attention tends to go more in that direction (it did in 2012). Oettinger is worthy of this ranking though. The kid has the size, has the athleticism, very technically sound and smooth, has phenomenal numbers, he’s everything you look for a goaltender to be. Now, that’s physically. Mental toughness is the most important component for a tendy which is why they are the biggest wild card’s to draft, which is why I dropped him to borderline 1st round status (for me anyway). He was the 3rd goaltender for the States at the World Junior’s this year, though he never got a chance to play with Tyler Parsons and Joseph Woll both playing so well.
35. Michael DiPietro Windsor OHL
Pos: G Ht: 6’0 Wt: 202 Glove: L
Comparison: Marty Turco
I have railed against people who basically champion for the undersized kids in the draft. It’s clear to me that they’re A) pulling for who they view as the underdogs, B) they don’t pay close enough attention to how GM’s need to build a team as opposed to just simply compiling talent, and C) pulling for all GM’s to move in this direction because it’s much more fun to watch. It isn’t as if I disagree with the latter, but I also try to keep in mind what has been much more successful over the last 100 years in the NHL, which is size. But in THIS scenario, I just believe DiPietro is getting drastically undervalued and it’s obviously because of his size. Something that he had working for him this season though is Juuse Saros was exceptional, and he was a kid who the Preds debated drafting in the 4th round because of his size. DiPietro had ridiculous numbers when I did my first list with a 2.15 G.A.A. and a .925 Sv%. He slipped a bit afterwards, finishing with a 2.48 G.A.A. and a .917 Sv%, and then was tremendous in leading the Spitfires to the Memorial Cup . He won’t go in the 1st round, might not go in the 2nd round, but this is my list and I like him in the 30-40 range.
36. Morgan Geekie Tri-City WHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’2 Wt: 190 Shot: R
Comparison: Bryan Smolinski
Massive jump up the rankings for me from just two weeks ago as I’ve dug deeper on him and really respect those scouts who are high on him. He’s in his second year of eligibility for the draft, but he’s actually only a little over two months older than Yamamoto, and Geekie’s point totals weren’t far off his. The size is good, the numbers are good, it’s the skating that needs work. But his IQ and playmaking are tremendous. There are a few rumours out there that he could be a first round pick.
37. Isaac Ratcliffe Guelph OHL
Pos: LW Ht: 6’6 Wt: 200 Shot: L
Comparison: Dustin Penner
As is the case with a lot of big players, Ratcliffe needs to work on his first step. But at 6’5 and only 196 pounds, you could likely chalk that up to being a lanky kid who doesn’t have the strength to match his frame. At top speed his skating is great for a player his size. Hasn’t shown a nasty streak to this point, so doubtful that’ll ever come. Was the leading goal scorer and second in points on a weak Storm team this season.
38. Aleksi Heponiemi Swift Current WHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’10 Wt: 149 Shot: L
Comparison: Sebastian Aho
Obviously has a lot filling out to do, and didn’t have a great playoffs for the Broncos (0 goals, 8 assists in 14 GP). In fairness to that though, he is a pure playmaker. Look at guys like Joe Thornton, Nicklas Backstrom, Ryan Getzlaf, etc. The one thing you’ll always hear about their game is the question “why don’t they shoot more?” Heponiemi is the same way and will hang onto the puck sometimes too long looking for that seam. His speed for his size is ok but not great, he has to improve it. But despite that and despite the size, I find myself really intrigued at how good this kid could be in a few years. The weight is shocking, and worrisome that he won’t be able to get up to 175-185 that he needs to get to. If he does, he should play in the league, though I would guess he ends up on the wing.
39. Kole Lind WHL Kelowna
Pos: RW Ht: 6’1 Wt: 185 Shot: R
Comparison: Alex Killorn
I’ll start off with a negative, and that is he’s rail thin. Looks smaller than what he’s listed at. But the good news there is that he excels at the size he is currently, and will only get bigger. Good speed, good shot, and plays with a bit of grit despite the lack of weight. Probably not shocking that these are the qualities a Saskatchewan kid possesses, I know. But there is always a spot for a kid like this in the show. I see him as a very safe pick. Top nine guy who can move up and down your lineup, a lot like the other wingers I have in the 38-47 range.
40. Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen HPK SM Jr. Liiga
Pos: G Ht: 6’4.25 Wt: 198 Glove: L
Comparison: Pekka Rinne
Size, athleticism, a Fin, I honestly try to stay away from the stereotypical comparisons. I can’t in this case. He just reminds me exactly of Rinne. Unlike Rinne however, he’s not a raw talent. He already has shown that he’s pretty technically sound for his age and plays a composed style with great rebound control. Sometimes you see guys with a lot of athleticism like Jonas Gustavsson or Anders Lindback who just can never get away from depending solely on that.
41. Alex Formenton London OHL
Pos: LW Ht: 6’1.5 Wt: 166 Shot: L
Comparison: Drew Stafford
The biggest draw with Formenton is that he is going to be one of the youngest (the youngest I’ve come across who should go in the top 100) player in this draft. 9/13/99. Age aside though, he’s very raw. So the belief here is that in another two seasons playing for Dale Hunter, Formenton will develop into a very effective top nine winger. He has awesome wheels and a great work ethic, so if you’re going to gamble on a bit of a project, he’d be a good one to bet on.
42. Stelio Mattheos Brandon WHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’0.25 Wt: 189 Shot: R
Comparison: Mike Fisher
He’s dropped a bit this season, but I really like the kid in this early-mid 2nd round range. Decent size, natural centre, right handed shot, good wheels, everyone raves about the way he forechecks, I think he’s got a great shot at being a pretty valuable top nine forward in the league whether it be at centre or on the wing. The ability is there and I believe a season back in Brandon with it being “his team” could do big things for his development.
43. Jake Leschyshyn Regina WHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’10.75 Wt: 189 Shot: L
Comparison: Dave Bolland
Such a shame that he had that knee injury and couldn’t have gone on the playoff run with the Pats. With the Pats hosting the Memorial Cup next season he’ll obviously get that chance, but who knows what a great playoff run could have done for his draft stock. From what we got to see though, tough not to like the player. Good (not great) speed, high IQ, gritty, has some skill but more importantly knows how to manufacture goals.
44. Scott Reedy USA NTDP USHL
Pos: RW Ht: 6’1 Wt: 201 Shot: R
Comparison: David Perron
His U18 didn’t go too well, seeing he got benched. But I’m still a fan. He’s a lot like Jason Robertson. Better skater (but his own skating isn’t great), probably not as good of a shot (but he has a good shot). His stick skills are his big claim to fame, but I also like what I’m hearing on his grit and playmaking abilities. From what I’ve seen in highlights, he loves going to the tough area’s and playing a little greasy.
45. Maxime Comtois Victoriaville QMJHL
Pos: LW Ht: 6’1.75 Wt: 207 Shot: L
Comparison: Benoit Pouliot
One of the drafts big time fallers from the start of the season. I tried to resist back in February, but he’s just had a brutal season production wise and I can’t help but drop him into this range. Still though, I can’t help but think back to 2013 and Anthony Duclair was basically an afterthought heading into the draft after being a top ranked kid heading into the season. So for me personally, I would take a chance on Comtois in this range simply because it could have simply been a case of a kid putting far too much pressure on himself in his draft year. When you just look at the skill set of size, grit, speed, and a great shot, you have to think he’ll still find his way into the league.
46. Grant Mismash USA NTDP USHL
Pos: LW Ht: 6’0 Wt: 181 Shot: L
Comparison: Jason Zucker
Fast and skilled kid who is a bit inconsistent, but when on he is active all over the ice. Willing to get his nose dirty, of course this becomes a question mark once he gets to the AHL and NHL. Is he going to start to shy away from it when facing bigger and tougher guys, or is he going to embrace it? Tough to say how that mental part of the game will ever go for a player, but Mismash definitely has the skill set to be a very effective top nine winger in the league. Potentially a guy who you can move up and down your lineup.
47. Ostap Safin Sparta CZE-Jr
Pos: RW Ht: 6’4.5 Wt: 192 Shot: L
Comparison: Brad Isbister
First, an explanation on the comparison. If I said Todd Bertuzzi or David Backes, it would be ridiculous expectations. Isbister had that same talent, just didn’t have the drive. These types of players are few and far between and the ones who pan out end up dominating, so it’s tough to find a middle of the road guy to compare Safin to. If he were a Canadian kid I really wonder how much higher he would be in most rankings. Massive upside. He loves to throw his weight around. Would that change once over in North America, or would he then become more comfortable and excel even playing in a league that has more guys who play that style? Foot speed needs work, but his high end speed is real good and has some good skill with a great shot. The ceiling is really high with Safin and because of that it won’t surprise me if in this particular draft (viewed as weaker) he managed to sneak into the first round.
48. Alexei Lipanov Balashikha MHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’0.25 Wt: 169 Shot: L
Comparison: Mike Riberio
There is another Russian who you’re probably wondering how I could have Lipanov ahead of him. Well Lipanov still has a lot of filling out to do, and is a centre which goes a long way in my books. He’s pure offence. The 200 foot game needs a lot of work, but this is a kid who has a boat load of skill. Really similar to Heponiemi (hence them back to back and in the same tier). The Fin gets the nod because of less risk, Lipanov might be the more talented of the two.
49. Sasha Chmelevski Ottawa OHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’11.25 Wt: 179 Shot: R
Comparison: Marcus Kruger
Congratulations to the 2017 CHL scholastic player of the year, Sasha Chmelevski. I’m a sucker for kids who show a high IQ. Of course that doesn’t mean it will translate to hockey sense, but I do believe it shows work ethic and maturity on top of intelligence. Great wheels, good skill, his 200 foot game has shown a lot of improvement as the seasons progressed, and he’s a right handed shot. He had consistency issues this season, but the kid really does have all the talent to not only make the NHL, but be a significant contributor.
50. Morgan Frost S.S. Marie OHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’10.75 Wt: 173 Shot: L
Comparison: Ryan Spooner
Another one of these kids who I simply made a mistake on the last time around. For me personally though, the skill set that Chmelevski possesses still has him a spot ahead though for those wondering how I could have him ahead of Frost. But again, pay more attention to the tierings when looking at my rankings. I love the comparison of Spooner, as they’re extremely similar players from stature, skating ability, both pure playmakers who can leave coaches frustrated by not shooting as often as they’d like. I see Grant McCagg has tweeted that he was told the Habs like him a lot at 25. Makes sense, as I’ve been mocking a centre to the Habs all season, and all the high end ones will likely be off the board.
51. Marcus Davidsson Djurgardens SHL
Pos: C Ht: 6’0 Wt: 191 Shot: L
Comparison: Mikael Backlund
It is so rare that you find a Swedish kid who doesn’t play a 200 foot game, it’s unreal the job they do developing their kids. Like the Luukkonen/Rinne comparison, I just couldn’t not think of Backlund when talking about Davidsson, and I’m guessing this is the comparison most will have. Needs to keep developing his lower body strength which will help his skating out a lot (not a bad stride, just a little weak) and isn’t very physical. But he plays a very complete game.
52. Joni Ikonen Frolunda SHL
Pos: C Ht: 5’11 Wt: 177 Shot: R
Comparison: Vincent Trocheck
I can’t see him being a centre at the next level. He’s a dangler with a tremendous shot, and if you try to keep a guy like that in the middle then it can be difficult to find him linemates. He worked well at the U18’s with Vesalainen because Vesalainen is a kid who can create and tilt the ice. But either in the middle or on the wing, Ikonen has a chance to be a real good sniper.
53. Josh Brook Moose Jaw WHL
Pos: RD Ht: 6’1 Wt: 191 Shot: R
Comparison: Jason Demers
I cannot find a consensus on his skating! Redline Report say “his fluid skating with light edging allows him to play effectively in all three zones”. Future Considerations say his “overall speed game isn’t flattering”. And I found some more and again, opinions were split. I don’t get how that happens, but even with some of the negative things I read I still like the overall package. Big frame, righty shot, high IQ, plays gritty in his own zone, even without great wheels I’m intrigued at this point in the draft. If Redline is right and his wheels are as good as they claim, this kid has a chance to be a massive steal.
54. Ian Mitchell Spruce Grove AJHL
Pos: RD Ht: 5’11 Wt: 173 Shot: R
Comparison: Thomas Hickey
He’s a very understated D-man who is a bit of a project, but any team who drafts him is going to have time to let him grow while he attends Denver beginning next season. Mobile, solid in his own zone, and untapped offensive potential.
55. Dylan Samberg Hermantown USHSW
Pos: LD Ht: 6’3 Wt: 211 Shot: L
Comparison: Josh Manson
As the comparison is intended to imply, Samberg is a great skater who is a miserable SOB to play against. Tough to imagine him as a big point producer, but I personally believe every team still needs that guy on the blueline who makes life miserable for the opposition and Samberg is that kind of player.
56. David Farrance USA NTDP USHL
Pos: LD Ht: 5’9 Wt: 195 Shot: L
Comparison: Troy Stecher
He’s so small. He has ridiculous talent though. Great speed, great puck mover, he’s a kid who wouldn’t even get consideration for the NHL draft 13 years ago. He’d be headed for a nice career in Europe. But now, he has a chance. And going to BU in the fall, whoever drafts him will get a bit of extra time before needing to sign him to his ELC. That’ll be great for his development, because he really needs time to work on his defensive play. Some might wonder why I would have him down this far, but the fact of the matter is that he had very disappointing numbers this season. Talent is there, no doubt, but that’s the risk.
57. Markus Phillips Owen Sound OHL
Pos: LD Ht: 6’0 Wt: 202 Shot: L
Comparison: Paul Martin
Phillips is what I’d call a new age defensive defenceman. He’s got offensive skill, but he’s tremendous in his own zone with his positioning, angling, and first pass. Just plays a very safe and dependable game. Could be a sneaky good prospect because he’s the type of kid who has had to think the game, not simply overwhelm the OHL with his elite talent.
58. Klim Kostin Moscow KHL
Pos: RW Ht: 6’2.5 Wt: 207 Shot: L
Comparison: Thomas Vanek
I’m going for “lowest you’ll see him ranked”, and I was very tempted to not have him on my list, but at some point it’s ok to take the home run swing. The big, and/or skilled, “unstoppable” Russian winger seems to bust more than any other type of player, and they’ve burnt their bridge with me. Filatov, Burmistrov, Yakupov, Grigorenko, Nichushkin, I’m just done with these guys as first round picks. You will likely point out Tarasenko and Kuznetsov, of course there are always exceptions to the rule. Added to the bust factor, and the flight risk, Kostin missed half the season. Put on top of all this, now he says he won’t come to the CHL. What is with so many of these kids?! Let’s not sugar coat it, so many of these kids are total divas and for me personally I’m sick of it and I have to think most NHL teams are sick of it too. I’m not touching him anywhere in the top 30 where most have him. Late 2nd round though, I’d maybe take a swing.
59. Jonah Gadjovich Owen Sound OHL
Pos: LW Ht: 6’1 Wt: 199 Shot: L
Comparison: Marcus Foligno
This kid is a little bit of an old school power forward. He’s a solid skater for his size, and looks like he has the frame to put on another 15-20 pounds. 17 of 46 goals on the PP is a bit of a concern for me, as is the late 98 birth date. But no doubt he has the talent to be a top nine guy in the NHL.
60. Nick Henry Regina WHL
Pos: RW Ht: 5’11 Wt: 190 Shot: R
Comparison: Brian Gionta
Henry isn’t going to overwhelm anyone with his speed and skill. Both are solid, but he’s the type of kid who just really understands his role. This season playing on the top line with the Pats, he understood not to try and do too much and it led to incredible results. He’s very willing to get his nose dirty too. Just a perfect complimentary player. A lot of his damage done five on four though, as I’ve stated throughout this list I’m not a fan of that.
61. Matthew Strome Hamilton OHL
Pos: LW Ht: 6’3.5 Wt: 207 Shot: L
Comparison: Jimmy Hayes
I have a tough time liking Strome to be honest. But then again, if I got the 57th pick in the draft, don’t you have to take a highly skilled 6’4 kid? His skating isn’t good, but it’s probably better than Jason Robertson’s, and he’s bigger than Robertson, and he’s as skilled. I give the IQ edge to Robertson (big time), but still I think you have to take a swing on Strome by now, and a team likely will long before this spot.
62. Jesper Boqvist Brynas SHL J20
Pos: C Ht: 5’11.25 Wt: 165 Shot: L
Comparison: Robert Nilsson
A pretty talented kid, but he is a bit of a mess in his own zone and tends to shy away from the dirty area’s. So I have trouble liking him. Still, you can’t knock the kids talent. He can always be coached up on the defensive end of the ice, and he can always learn to get his nose a little dirty. His draft combine interview would have been a big deal if I were the GM of a team. If it checks out, you probably have him in your top 35. Has high end speed, and the upside is definitely there.
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