Poor decisions

What else are we supposed to call it?  “Free Agent Frenzy”?  That sounds like its a fun day where good things happen.  Rarely does anything good come out of this day.  USUALLY what we see are contracts like Brad Richards, Jay Bouwmeester, Wade Redden, Scott Gomez, since the 2005 lockout I would GUESS (total guess) that the ratio of good contracts to bad is probably 4:1.

So here is what we are going to do.  I’m going to give you 2 somewhat similar players and make the case why 1 guy could be a worse decision than your last bar pickup, and one guy could be a good decision like the last time you went home from the bar alone…well at least that’s my excuse for always going home from the bar alone!

Bad decision:

David Clarkson – He is going to get a gross deal without a doubt.  He is the most unique player available and while he’s viewed as a 30 goal scorer, there is a reason they call it a “career year”.  He basically had a 106 game stretch (82 last year, first 24 this year) where he was productive.  The rest of his career he hasn’t produced much.  And he’s 29 now, his best days of dropping the gloves are behind him.  I don’t in anyway dislike the player, but I fear what numbers we will see when he signs.  Shouldn’t be anything over 4 years/16 mil, likely will be 5 or 6 years/27.5-32.5 mil.

Good decision:

Ryane Clowe – While Clarkson is getting all the love, if I were a GM I would be paying all my attention to Ryane Clowe if you need a guy like that.  Clowe has virtually no buzz around him, yet he is the more proven of the 2 guys and is only a year older.  He had a bad year, but it was a messed up year.  Their career stats are pretty similar.  Clowe has 435 GP with 104 goals.  Clarkson has 426 GP with 97 goals.  But Clowe has 279 points, Clarkson only has 170.  Clowe is a career +18, Clarkson -32.  The Sharks have likely been the better team over that time, but not by much.  The Devils have had 2 down years in the last 3 seasons but for the most part have been a power in the East.  Clowe should be the higher paid of the 2, yet it sure doesn’t sound like that’s how it will happen.  If you can get him for 4 years/16 mil, it would be much better than what we’re hearing Clarkson will get.

Bad decision:

Andrew Ference – Like Clarkson, I love a lot of what Ference brings to the table, just don’t love what he potentially will cost.  He’s limited.  He moves the puck good not great, he plays physical but lacks size, he can play on your PP but can’t QB, he is solid in his own zone but can’t matchup with top lines.  He’s a number 4 d-man which is great, but I’m just hoping for some teams sake it isn’t for something like 4-5 years/16-20 mil.

Good decision:

Ryan Whitney – Maybe its the Oiler fan in me, but I’m still a big believer in the guy.  He injured the foot midway through the 2010-11 season.  Had the surgery, came back much too soon from it (the start of the 11-12 season).  I recall reading that you need 2 years to recover from that injury.  So that season was a write off.  Last year he probably would have been more than ready come training camp but the lockout happened.  So again, that screwed up his season.  He also couldn’t get out of Ralph Krueger’s dog house.  He has good size, has a great first pass, he has lost a step but I wouldn’t classify him as slow either, will get his nose dirty though not an overly physical d-man, and can QB a teams PP.  1 or 2 years/2-4 mil is low risk, high reward.

Bad decision:

Mike Riberio – I honestly don’t have a good feel on what some of these center’s will get, but I have no time for Mike Riberio basically no matter what he gets.  Congrats on being a PPG player!  That’s awesome!  You’re a center bud, play the postition.  Bad in the dot (44.8% last season, 46.6% was his career high in 07 and 2011), doesn’t play a 200 foot game, and is still a question mark in the room.  Now, the fact he is viewed as a bit of a cancer may keep the price down.  But I expect something along the lines of 3-4 years/15-20 mil.

Good decision:

Valteri Filppula – I wouldn’t have said this a few days ago to be honest.  He is a player I’ve never paid a great deal of attention to.  But I started looking at the numbers.  66 points in the 11-12 season, 200 foot player, he is experienced, comes from a winning environment, still only 29 years old, and check out these numbers in the dot starting with this past season: 55.4, 51.7, 51.5, 51.7, 52.1, 50.6, and 55.8 in 06-07.  He is damn good in the dot.  And he’s done all this in the Western conference which I believe is the more physically demanding conference.  Pretty impressive.  The reason much like Clowe and Whitney as to why Filppula may not get ridiculous money is because he’s coming off a poor offensive season.  But he’s delivered before when given the ice time, and his playoff stats are pretty decent too.  5 years/22.5 mil might not be a STEAL, but could be a good deal.

Bad decision:

Ilya Bryzgalov – Yes, a repeat offender.  He won’t get anything CLOSE to what he got with Philly.  But I could see him getting something like 3 years/12 mil.  Ridiculous!!  He is a product of playing in Tippett’s system and no national media it has nothing to do with Sean Burke!!!  Mike Smith was great for Tippett in Dallas without Burke, as was Turco.  Once they didn’t have Tippett their games fell apart.  Bryz might be a little better than he was in Philly, but he won’t be near the numbers he put up in Phoenix.

Good decision:

Ray Emery – I keep hearing that a lot of teams are interested, yet I hear they’re all interested in him because he likely won’t cost a lot.  If it stays that way and someone doesn’t get stupid this could be a steal.  17-1, 1.94 GAA, .922 SV%.  This was done playing in a system that is not goaltender friendly.  The Hawks are great, and they aren’t boring.  They give up fantastic scoring chances.  And Sugar Ray still put up those ridiculous numbers.  3 years/9 mil doesn’t scare me with him.

Bad decision:

Nathan Horton – I have always been a big fan of this kids game, especially with how clutch he was in the Bruins run during the 2011 playoffs.  I always thought he was a kid who was trapped in Florida and finally got into a great situation in Boston.  Now he wants to run back to a non hockey market because he doesn’t want the spotlight.  He sounds to me like a guy who is going to sign a fat new deal, and since he has his ring he is going to basically go half-assed the rest of his career.  Bob Stauffer has mentioned that there are certain reasons in Horton’s life as to why he may need to be in a Southern market (which usually means his wife wants him to be), but I still don’t like it at all.  That’s exactly what Ed Jovanovski has done the last 7 seasons.  I’m guessing a team like Tampa gives him 5 years/30 mil.

Good decision:

Brendan Morrow – He isn’t what he was, but if you understand that and pay him accordingly then you’re good to go.  Horton will deliver more offense despite probably being grossly overpaid.  But if you give Morrow a 2 or 3 year deal/5-6 mil (2.5 per for 2 years, only 2 if you give him the 3rd year) and put him on your 3rd line you will still have a very valuable player who will show up in big spots.  This is the type of move I expect a team like the Blackhawks to make to replace a guy like Stalberg.  Leadership, grit, experience and he’s still hungry to win a Cup.

Again, these are all subject to what they get.  If Bryzgalov gets the league minimum and Emery gets 5 years/25 mil then obviously the better move is to sign Bryz.  While some good decision’s will be made, the large majority of these will be deeply regretted by the GM’s who sign them in the next few years.

Follow me on twitter, a GREAT decision @TJ_Soups