NFL Week 11 Picks ATS
It’s been a REAL shitty last two weeks! 1-8-1 in that time. 26-22-3 now on the season. Just two weeks ago I was on a three week run of 11-3-1 (I’ll bring that up for the rest of the season, just you watch) and I was 25-14-3.
If there has been something I’ve learned it is who to stay away from and who to ride. I’m staying away from the NY Giants and Philadelphia as you don’t have a damn clue what you’re getting from those two teams week to week. Then you have teams like Green Bay, Dallas, and Cleveland (even though I’ve gone the other way on them) who are fun to ride right now. Green Bay is always losing ATS, as are the Browns, where the Cowboys are beating the line every week, although I’d just stay away from the Cowboys/Ravens game this week.
Buffalo at Cincinnati
Bills +2.5
I don’t really like the Bills, but it’s becoming clear that the Bengals just aren’t a good football team. So you combine that with the fact that the Bills are off a bye week and the Bengals are on a short week and I really love the Bills to take this one outright this week. Of course I talked in the opening about teams you can’t and can trust this season, well these are two teams that have been pretty consistent week to week. The Bills are better than I give them credit for, the Bengals are much worse.
Pittsburgh at Cleveland
Steelers -8
The Browns are getting their teeth kicked in every week. I believe this line is only 8 because the Browns are on extra rest this week, but the Steelers are now a bit of a desperate football team. They’re a game back of the Ravens in the division and lost what is so far their only head to head matchup. Even though it’s a big number, I believe the Steelers are going to come out on fire for this one after losing that heartbreaker to Dallas. And if the Steelers are fired up, it’ll be a blowout because the talent difference between the two teams is too big.
Tennessee at Indianapolis
Titans +3
I like the Titans outright. This is a line that is predicated on past beliefs that aren’t reality this season. The Colts aren’t good, and I know they’re off a bye week. But while I’ve loved that being a betting go to in the past, we are starting to see since the new NFL CBA that the bye week is really only beneficial to teams with great coaching, and the Colts don’t have great coaching. The Titans on the other hand are on fire. Marcus Mariota has me really believing in him becoming a franchise QB and their running game is going to overmatch the Colts. I don’t think the Titans run away with this one. I would guess how it plays out is the Titans get up big early, the Colts comeback, but the Titans pull out a close one.
Green Bay at Washington
Redskins -2.5
This game is much like the one above. The public still loves Green Bay, and still hates Washington which holds this line down to only 2.5 and has me ALL FREAKING OVER the Redskins this week. There is clearly something rotten in the Packers locker room and I don’t think it is something that’ll be resolved this season. The Packers at this point need a high draft pick, need to part way’s with Mike McCarthy who I believe is a fantastic coach but much like John Harbaugh, Marvin Lewis, and maybe even Mike Tomlin it is just time to move on (going to be a ton of coaching changes this offseason). The Packers literally have no running game, which allows defenses to load up against the passing game which of course is normally the Packers strength. I do think the Packers will battle hard in this one, but the Redskins will take it by a TD or so in the end. Also don’t forget, this is a revenge game of sorts for the Redskins after being bounced by the Packers in last year’s playoffs.
Houston vs Oakland
Raiders -6
Notice that says “vs”, not “at” with this game being played in Mexico City Monday night. So it’s a neutral site game, both teams are off their bye week, but I love the Raiders here in a bit of a blowout. Brock Osweiler is just not a good QB, and the more time is going on, the more film coaches have on him, the more they’re exposing him. So with two weeks for the Raiders coaches to game plan against him I think the chances are high that the Raiders D will make him look real bad in this one. The Texans D meanwhile is solid even without J.J. Watt, but nothing special. The Raiders O-line should own the Texans front seven, giving Carr time to pick apart their secondary.
Over/Under
1-1 last week, 3-1 overall (only done this for two weeks).
New England at San Francisco
Over 51
It’s safe to say that the Patriots on their own could by themselves go for 51 this week. They won’t be happy after losing on Sunday night, and a nice little tidbit here is that Tom Brady grew up a Niners fan and doesn’t get to play at home very often. He’ll be at his best in this game. Now last week I had this same logic, and it was the Cards who let me down. But I said, Chip Kelly’s play calling will put up points, and he has Colin Kaepernick at least playing confident right now. I’m not going to suggest a score this week like I did with the Niners game last week, but I’ll just say I see this going over.
Green Bay at Washington
Over 49
I don’t get this one at all. I think this game is going to be a total shootout. The passing game is the strength of both of these teams, and so if this game goes under 49 then it would be a pretty massive shock. Plus, the Sunday night games a lot more often than not seem to bring out the best in offenses (obviously the Seattle/Arizona game was an exception).
Guessing the Lines (week 12)
7/14 last week, 15/28 overall (only done this for two weeks).
Minnesota at Detroit -1.5
Washington at Dallas -3
Pittsburgh -4 at Indianapolis
L.A. at New Orleans -6
Tennessee -4.5 at Chicago
Arizona at Atlanta -2
NY Giants -6 at Cleveland
San Diego at Houston -1.5 (I’d take the Chargers, but believe the Texans will get favoured)
Jacksonville at Buffalo -6
Cincinnati at Baltimore -3
San Francisco at Miami -7.5
Seattle -7 at Tampa Bay
New England -7 at NY Jets
Carolina at Oakland -2.5
Kansas City at Denver -2
Green Bay at Philadelphia -3
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