NFL Week 11 Hot Takes
It’s seriously U.S. Thanksgiving week already?! That basically marks the beginning of the end of the football season. That’s depressing for a guy like me. Can’t football players just stop getting concussions and play year round? Is that too much to ask?! Like…just quit getting conky’s guys. That’s all you have to do!
I guess I’ll start in Cincinnati where the Bengals look to be finished now that A.J. Green is likely done for the season. Marvin Lewis is likely going to lose his job, but Tony Kornheiser brought up today something I’ve been thinking about with Cincy and that is Lewis took that organization from bottom feeders to being consistently good. He’s a damn good head coach and if the Bengals let him go I’m sure it won’t take him long to find a gig elsewhere.
I say it every week and I’ll say it again: the Cowboys just continue to beat expectations every week. I made sure to stay away from betting them this week and sure as shit they beat a 7.5 point spread against the Ravens who matched up well with them. All the pro’s in Vegas were taking the Ravens, Colin Cowherd who has picked well over 60% this season was on the Ravens, and I just stayed away. Thursday they are -9 if you can believe it, and a good team like Washington SHOULD cover that, but I just can’t bring myself to touch it.
Speaking of Thanksgiving, I don’t think we’ve ever had a Thanksgiving day schedule where the first two games were this sexy. Cowboys and Redskins in a massive NFC East tilt, and before that we get the Lions and Vikings both coming off big wins in a battle for the lead in the NFC North. It wasn’t pretty for the Lions against the Jags, but that’s how they’ve won all season. Total offense they’re 25th. Total defense they’re 19th. Yet they’re just making plays at the right times. The Vikings finally snapped their losing streak against a Cards team that just hasn’t been right all season, so this is the game that’ll prove whether or not they’re back to normal. Unreal news coming out yesterday that Adrian Peterson might be back before the end of the season. Say what you want about the way he raises his kids, but the guy is a freak of nature.
Tampa Bay beat KC in Arrowhead?!? The Colts held a good offense to 17 points?!? The Bears lost?!?
Speaking of the Bears…I’m not going to talk about them any further. But I will talk about the team they played, and I’m going to say it now (hey, it’s finally an actual hot take!!!) that the NY Giants, after they beat the Browns on Sunday, will be the worst 8-3 team in NFL history. That team is awful! Yet they’re about to be 8-3. I mocked it early in the season about people who would say that they were the worst 2-0 team in league history, assuming they would improve. Well the same shitty team is now about to be 8-3. They’ve hardly improved, but they have benefitted from a very weak schedule. After the Browns game though, watch out. I would not be shocked if the Giants lost their final five games of the season. The lightest of their final five is the 6-4 Lions at home.
Jared Goff was…fine. You have to remember that the Dolphins D is one of the best in the league, the Rams O-line is bad, their receivers aren’t good, and their offensive play calling isn’t good. So other than Todd Gurley (who has underachieved a bit this season himself), this was an awful spot for a rookie QB which is why they’ve been sitting the kid!!! I don’t think they will, but the Rams really need to get both Jeff Fisher and Les Snead out of power. Those would perhaps be the hottest job openings in football should they open up, so it might be the perfect time to clean house after the season. I love Jeff Fisher, but he has needed to bring in a top end offensive co-ordinator for 10 years now and refuses to do so.
I don’t know what more needs to be said about the Packers at this point, but I’ll gladly talk about the Redskins. Some credit needs to be given to Jay Gruden. He stepped into one of the biggest shit shows in the NFL. Remember when he became their head coach? Memba?! It was all about RGIII and “make RGIII great again” may as well of been the motto. They had no young talent thanks to blowing their wad in the draft on getting Griffin, and it was just a shit show. Now, they look like they have their QB (Cousins isn’t a franchise QB, but they can win with him), and the offense in general is 2nd in the league in total yards. It’s a playoff team for sure and I believe they’ll end up being the 5th seed in the NFC and a brutal matchup for one of the Vikings, Lions, Falcons or yes, possibly even the Buccaneers who are now only a game out in the NFC South.
My Raiders win again! Sweet, but sweet because that gave me a 4-1 week ATS! So in my last four winning weeks I’m now 15-4-1. The only problem was the previous two weeks I was 1-8-1, but we can pretend that those two weeks didn’t happen if you want?
Finally, guessing the line. How did I do this week after going 50% last week and getting 13 of 14 games within 2 points.
Minnesota at Detroit -1.5
Lions are -2.5, so only a point off, which if you’ve been keeping up with these you’d know that counts as a win.
Washington at Dallas -3
WAY OFF!!! As of writing this, the public who is head over freaking heels on the Cowboys, have this spread now at Dallas -9!!! I’m still scared to bet that with how hot the Cowboys are, but taking Washington +9 is a very intelligent bet to make.
Pittsburgh -4 at Indianapolis
It’s off the board right now with Andrew Luck likely gone with a concussion, but I’d be shocked if it’s right because of that.
L.A. at New Orleans -6
Saints -7, that’s a win.
Tennessee -4.5 at Chicago
Titans only -3.5, but again, that’s a win.
Arizona at Atlanta -2
A little bigger than I expected, with the Falcons favored by 4. Might be a solid move to take the Cards, but the Falcons will be off their bye.
NY Giants -6 at Cleveland
Giants are -7, so another win. I wouldn’t be SHOCKED if the Browns finally got their win here. If they don’t, 0-16 is likely on the horizon.
San Diego at Houston -1.5 (I’d take the Chargers, but believe the Texans will get favoured)
Not on the board just yet as the Texans/Raiders game just ended, but I looked it up and apparently it’s a pick’em. I’d still take the Chargers.
Jacksonville at Buffalo -6
Damn, this one is now up to Buffalo by 7.5. Jacksonville is bad, but I don’t know if I’d trust the Bills that much.
Cincinnati at Baltimore -3
Ravens -4.5. Much like the Bills, I know the Bengals suck, but can you really trust the Ravens?
San Francisco at Miami -7.5
Dolphins -8, so another win.
Seattle -7 at Tampa Bay
Early betting loves the Seahawks, but the line hasn’t moved yet from Seahawks -5.5. A devastating loss for yours truly.
New England -7 at NY Jets
Pats -7.5. Another win. I’d think hard about the Jets here as they always play the Pats tough.
Carolina at Oakland -2.5
Wow, -4 for the Raiders according to what I googled (not on the board right now). I’d take the Panthers here. Not a Cam Newton fan but he should destroy this Raiders D.
Kansas City at Denver -2
Broncos -3, which is a win but I’m guessing I’d have been bang on had the Chiefs not laid that egg at home against the Bucs.
Green Bay at Philadelphia -3
Eagles -3.5, so that’s 8. 50% again this week. Not bad, in my opinion. I wish I could bet the games as good as I can predict the lines.
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