NFL Week 12 Picks ATS

Back on track baby!  So as I said in my “hot takes”, if you look at four of my last six weeks against the spread, I’m a ridiculous 15-4-1!  Unfortunately in the two weeks previous to last, I was 1-8-1.  I don’t get it.  It’s like you’re dominating time of possession, dominating in total yards, yet thanks to a tipped pass and two freak fumbles you’re only leading by a field goal.  I’ve been picking real good this season, but for whatever reason I went ice cold for two weeks.  Now 30-23-3 on the season.

San Diego at Houston

Chargers -2.5

I don’t particularly LOVE this bet, but I do like it.  Make of that what you will.  Chargers are coming off a bye, Texans are on a short week so that’s a pretty big positive right there.  I also know the Chargers are the better team.  And being less than a field goal spread, that’s where I simply like to go with the favorite.  The Texans have given me a lot of scares this season due to being better than I give them credit for, but I still feel confident enough in the Chargers here to take them at -2.5.  -3 or -3.5, you should think about taking the Texans.

San Francisco at Miami

Dolphins -7

It’s a big number, but you need to swallow the points here.  First off…one of my favorites…yes I spell like an American when I’m talking NFL….West coast team playing a 10 AM PST game.  Another thing I like, the Dolphins are emerging as a really good team under Adam Gase.  Another thing I like, the 49ers are terrible.  That’s as black and white as I can get with this one.  49ers will have trouble scoring, Dolphins won’t, as I said off the top swallow the points.

Tennessee at Chicago

Titans -6

Another big number here.  Titans in Chicago, normally you wouldn’t take the Titans by 6 over anyone on the road.  But this Titans squad is pretty good.  I believe this team is winning the AFC South.  And how are the Bears going to put up points?  I love Jordan Howard, but that is literally all they have on offense.  They have a solid defense (10th in the NFL in YPG), but they aren’t shutting out Mariota, and he doesn’t turn the ball over.  So while I don’t expect a lot of points going on the board, I do expect the Titans to win this one comfortably.

Carolina at Oakland

Panthers +3

This is a pretty big QB matchup, as it could pit the reigning MVP against the future MVP.  Carolina is winning this one outright, but even at +3 it’s even money right now.  Luke Kuechly is a big absence for the Panthers without a doubt.  But that D is still solid.  I don’t care what the numbers will say for this season as a whole, we all know they’re fully capable of shutting down anyone when they’re on.  Also, the Raiders D won’t give Newton any problems, and Mr. Frontrunner can light a team the f*** up when nobody is raining on his parade.  I love the Panthers here, and I don’t think I’m done talking about betting this game…

Kansas City at Denver

Chiefs +3.5

The Broncos are off a bye.  The Broncos are at home.  I love the Chiefs here.  First of all, more than a field goal is always nice in a game that’s essentially a pick’em.  Also, I really believe the Chiefs are the better team.  The more film coaches get on Trevor Siemian, the worse he gets.  That’s not a coincidence.  Aqib Talib is back for the Broncos and Jeremy Maclin is out for the Chiefs, but the problem there is the Chiefs don’t use their WR’s a ton anyway.  I’d expect a very ugly Sunday night game with it coming down to the wire.

Over/Under

1-1 last week, 4-2 overall (only done this for three weeks).

Carolina at Oakland

Over 49.5

Love this one.  LOVE IT.  As I said above, QB frontrunner will be in all his glory as the Raiders D doesn’t believe in being good despite having one of the best pass rushers in football.  Derek Carr on the other hand lights up everyone.  So 49.5 is a gift!

Green Bay at Philadelphia

Over 47

I think you’re starting to notice that I refuse to bet the under.  My theory is that if you bet the under it is always in question.  When you bet the over, there is a threshold that once it’s broken, you win.  Makes sense to me, likely makes no sense to you, but regardless I’m just done betting unders, never win them, and then you’re hoping for a boring game.  Anyway, this is much the same as the bet above.  The Packers D can’t stop anyone, and Rodgers puts up points on everyone.

Guessing the Lines (week 13)

8/16 last week, 23/44 overall (only done this for three weeks).  I aim here to be within a point of the line.

Dallas -3.5 at Minnesota

As I’m writing this it dawns on me that this bet will be up somewhere, you’ll have to take my word on it but I didn’t see it yet.

Kansas City at Atlanta -3

Detroit at New Orleans – 2.5

Los Angeles at New England -11

Denver -6 at Jacksonville

Houston at Green Bay -3.5

Philadelphia -1.5 at Cincinnati

Miami at Baltimore -2.5 (take Miami!)

San Francisco at Chicago -2 (what a HORRIFIC game this will be)

Buffalo at Oakland -3.5

NY Giants at Pittsburgh -6

Washington at Arizona -2.5

Tampa Bay at San Diego -3.5

Carolina at Seattle -6.5

Indianapolis -2 at NY Jets (this is IF Andrew Luck is playing)

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