Divisional Round Picks

OUCH…AGAIN!  1-3 last weekend, and the 1 win was the game where I said the Bengals were winning outright which as we know SHOULD have been right, but was wrong.  I don’t get it as to what goes on that weekend.  I don’t know if I overthink everything or what.  Because I hear people who know far less about football than I do brag about how they went 4-0 (just picking the winners, not ATS).  I do my homework, listen to what the intelligent football people have to say about these games, and make educated picks…that are always wrong on wildcard weekend.  F*** you wildcard weekend.  Luckily, the divisional round is my true friend.

Kansas City at New England

Patriots -4.5

I think people are forgetting Alex Smith is the Chiefs QB.  Just say it out loud: Alex Smith vs Tom Brady.  That’s why I love the Pats to beat this spread.  I know the Chiefs are hot, but the Pats are getting healthy and when they were healthy they were the best team in the league.

Green Bay at Arizona

Packers +7

I think I learned my lesson with the Vikings last weekend.  The Viks got crushed at home by the Seahawks just a few weeks previous, then of course as we know the Vikings should have won that game.  I don’t think the Packers will be winning this game, and I do think the Redskins made the Packers look better than they are.  BUT…the Packers know what to expect here.  The key here will be whether or not the Packers D can stop the Cards offense.  I don’t think they can, Bruce Arians is such a great coach and the Packers D is just not good enough.  But sometimes you just have to take the big number and I can find enough reasons to suggest the Packers will keep it within a touchdown.

Seattle at Carolina

Panthers -1.5

I was all prepared to take the Seahawks in this one.  But some betting rules are preventing me from doing this.  They’re coming off a pretty physical game in Minny.  And they’re a West coast team playing on the East coast with a 10 AM West coast start time.  Couple that with just simply being on the road, in a stadium where if you include a playoff win, the home team has won 11 straight.  Not to mention, the Seahawks last 2 trips to Charlotte were tight games that they did win, but not without Russell Wilson coming up big late in the game.  Both games, the Panthers weren’t what they’ve become.  I still think it’ll be a close game, but I think the Panthers D can hold Wilson down and Cam Newton is too talented to keep out of the end zone enough for the Seahawks to win.

Pittsburgh at Denver

Broncos -7.5

It feels like WAY too big of a number doesn’t it?  But no Brown, Williams, or Bell for the Steelers, and don’t forget Roethlisberger is playing hurt.  I love Ben.  Not off the field, we all know his issues there!  But just as a QB and a football player, the guy is just everything you want at QB.  On the other side, Peyton Manning obviously isn’t what he was.  But he’s fresh, so if his foot is healed then he should be able to give the Broncos enough offense to get the win.  It isn’t as if I think this will be a blowout, but I do believe the Broncos having been pissed on by the media for not being as good as their record and having been upset last year in the divisional round will be as motivated as can possibly be.  Getting back to Manning for a second, there comes a point where the nerves and jitters you get in a big game turn into desperation.  If you’re trailing, you forget about being nervous and you start playing for your life.  There also comes a point where the nerves can become anger too and that can work to some players advantage.  I remember Manning in 03 hadn’t won a playoff game, and he won 2 that year.  Both games, he looked like a completely different guy.  He had that killer attitude.  I won’t be surprised if we see a bit of that in this game.  For someone so accomplished, he couldn’t have more to prove.

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