NFL picks – conference finals
A better week last week but still only 3-4. 2-2 ATS, but I’m not feeling bad about those picks, everyone seems to agree that these have been 2 of the most messed up playoff weekends of all time. Wildcard weekend all the games were under and the favorite won every game. Last weekend all the games went over and the only game that really went as you would think it would was Houston at New England. So now it’s the conference finals, and I’ve picked the dog in every single playoff game so far, and despite having shit luck the last 2 weekends I’m not changing a thing. There is a reason I went 18 games over .500 in the regular season (egotistical I know).
San Francisco at Atlanta
Atlanta +4.5
Under 49.5
This is just simply common sense, the best team in the league so far this season is 4.5 point dogs at home where they have been dominant not just this season but since 2008! I can’t believe people are taking the Niners in this spot, and don’t think for one second that this isn’t fueling the Falcons fire big time. They’re the most disrespected team in football and while its been justified for the most part, they showed last weekend they have some fight. That was a big hurdle for them to cross. I know they just barely escaped, but now they’ve won 1. Mentally its huge for them. Now, that’s not to say the Falcons will win this game. But you’re getting THIS good of a team at home getting 4.5, take it and run. Maybe I’m drastically missing something here, but I just can’t see it. As for the over/under, people will be much more inclined to take the over in this game but these were 2 very good defenses all season long. I believe this is a 23-20, 20-17 kind of game.
Baltimore at New England
Baltimore +9
Under 52.5
Speaking of teams getting disrespected, ladies and gentlemen YOUR Baltimore Ravens!!! I can’t figure out how you get to 9 (that’s where it started, that’s where it was when I made my pick, it’s now up to 7.5) points when every game these 2 teams play is tight. This game last year was a 3 point Pats win…that the Ravens should have won. The game this year came down to a field goal by Justin Tucker to win it for the Ravens. This will be a tight game! But the public drools over the Pats and everyone was down on the Ravens entering the playoffs so they think this run is more about other teams shooting themselves in the foot than the Ravens playing well. I think you’re an idiot if you’re taking the Pats -7.5 or higher. Now maybe that’s what will happen, but it doesn’t mean its the right bet. A lot of the time smart bets won’t win and dumb ones will but you just have to roll with it which is why I so often “take the smart bet”. So take the Ravens getting points even though I believe the Pats do win the game. As for the over/under in this one, its a big number that both teams are capable of beating. But this was a low scoring game last year and so I’m going to say it goes under yet again. Pretty tough for these teams to repeat the offensive performances they had last weekend.
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