NFL picks – week 15

 

Well there I was, 3-0 and on my way to back to back 5-0 weeks.  This was unbelievable, nobody goes perfect in back to back weeks.  And the reason for that is because they can’t.  The roof caves in.  I didn’t think the Saints would win in New York, but I didn’t think they would give THAT pathetic of an effort.  But whatever, the Monday night game was a LOCK if I’ve ever seen one and so I will still be 4-1.  Nope.  I was flat out shocked at the effort….or lack there of….that the Texans gave against the Pats.  Brady and Belicheck love sending those messages when people question who the best team in the AFC is.  Almost exactly the same as the Monday night game 2 years ago against the Jets.  Oh well, that’s done with.  4 weeks ago I was begging just to have a winning week.  Now I’ve had 3 in a row.  42-27-1 now on the season, never had a week where I was worse than 2-3.  Consistency my friends.  Of course, now that I’ve bragged that up watch me go 0-5….I hate my life.

 

Indianapolis at Houston

Houston -9.5

I had the Colts in this spot and I flipped it thanks to R.J. Bell and Colin Cowherd.  Houston is coming off that humilating loss against the Pats, and the Colts come in as the feel good team this season.  But the Colts have been pretty bad on the road this season, especially against quality opponents.  I realize this is a divisional game, I realize this is a short week for the Texans, but this just feels like this is one of those bets that seems so easy with a good team like the Colts being such big dogs in this game.  I felt this same way when the Colts were such huge underdogs in New England earlier in the season and they along with my bet got bleepin’ curb stomped!  Add to that the Texans need this game to wrap up the division.  Take the big number here, the Texans will send a message to what is currently the younger brother of the AFC South.

 

NY Giants at Atlanta

NY Giants +1.5

I’ve been one of the very few believers of the Falcons all season.  I believe they have a great offense, great defense, and I believe that this season they will win a playoff game or 2….which likely means they would go to the Super Bowl.  However, the Giants are the best road team in football.  The Giants still have a lot more to play for than the Falcons do.  This is a pretty big game for both teams and until Matt Ryan does get it done in a big game it doesn’t matter what I think he will do down the line, you need to go with the big game QB and that of course is Eli.  It’s not very many points, but take the points here.

 

Tampa Bay at New Orleans

Tampa Bay +4

Even after last week’s disaster in Jersey, I still don’t think the Saints will roll over and die.  And this week they have that home field advantage.  The problem is that the Bucs are coming in and they’re still alive for an NFC wildcard spot.  I LOVE picking teams +3.5 or more.  So many games come within a field goal or less so when you can get that extra point on your side I say take it and run!  The Bucs are coming off a bad loss to the Eagles so while the Saints should be jacked up for this one, the Bucs season might be on the line.  Expect this one to be tight all the way.

 

Carolina at San Diego

Carolina +3

The bottom line for me here is that the Panthers are a better team right now.  How “Charger” would it be for San Diego to go home after a sheer beat down on the road against the Steelers, the most impressive win of the season and just absolutely get humiliated against the 4-9 Panthers?  I’m betting on that exact thing happening.  I have not been shy about how much I don’t like the way Cam Newton acts on the field, but I will never deny that he is the most talented QB in the game right now.  He is impossible to stop when he gets hot, and he is red hot right now.  Ron Rivera facing his former employers will be a motivating factor in this game as well for Carolina.  I expect them to win outright.

 

San Francisco at New England

San Francisco +6

Yep, I’m doing it again.  I know all the factors involved.  It’s at Gillette, it’s a tough travel game for the Niners, the Pats have a chance to send another message in a big prime time game, I know all of that.  I also know who Jim Harbaugh is and know that the Niners will be up for this one a lot more than the Texans were.  The Texans defense hasn’t been the same since Brian Cushing went down for the season.  The Niners defesne on the other hand is still the best in football…at least in my eyes.  There is just no way I see the Pats winning this game by 7.  It will be a tight game.  Pats may win it, but the Niners despite being a West coast team are built to play game outdoors in December and January in the Northeast.

 

Follow me on twitter @TJ_Soups

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.