NFL picks – week 17

 

Say it ain’t so!!!  The final week of the NFL regular season.  This is just depressing.  It is a cliche, but it really honestly does feel like we just got started.  Want to know why the NFL is so awesome?  Because the regular season is just as much fun as the playoffs are.  So we will still have 3 weeks and 10 great playoff games after this, but I always miss the regular season.  The worst part is that this is the last week I have a ton of games to bet on!  5-2 in my big 7 pick week last week, upping the record to 50-31-1 on the season.  62%, totally to brag here….that is a great season!  It’s not what Colin Cowherd did, but I don’t know too many other people who picked that good, especially when I give them out free of charge!  You’re lucky I don’t know how to charge for them because you better believe I would if I could!

 

Baltimore at Cincinnati

Cincinnati -1.5

This game is now nothing for both teams on the surface, but I’m guessing this means something for the Bengals.  Remember week 1, the Bengals were humiliated by the Ravens on Monday Night Football.  The Bengals have been humiliated by the Ravens for a long time now.  They HAD been humilated by the Steelers for a long time before the big big BIG win on the road against the Steelers last week to get in the playoffs.  I’m pretty positive that the Bengals will want this game to get over that mental hump vs the Ravens.  I can’t see any reason why the Ravens would give a damn about this game and there for likely won’t.

 

Carolina at New Orleans

Carolina +5

You know I love me some underdog, and I love me some Carolina Panthers getting 5 points!  The over here is 54, take the over.  No defense will be played.  Neither team has much to play for in this one, but with it being the last game of the season I believe both will come out hard.  The Panthers have been hot in the 2nd half of the season, and were in most of their games in the first half of the season so they’re getting close.  5 points is just too many to give to the Panthers here.  This should be 2.5/3 point game.  I don’t like Newton as a franchise QB, he has to grow up, but he will be looking to show people he can play with the Drew Brees of the world in this game.

 

Chicago at Detroit

Chicago -3

I don’t understand this one.  It seems as though Vegas has gone a little overboard with hating on the Bears.  -5.5 against the Cardinals last week was a gift, and I think this one is too.  The Lions have seemingly quit on the season and the Bears are desperate.  The Lions I’m sure will give an effort, but with both teams playing their best it’s not really close.  The Bears simply have a better team and I think they’ll come out in this one and dominate the Lions.  It’s somewhat understandable for Detroit.  They had their hearts completely ripped out in games against the Titans, Texans, and Colts this season.  The Colts are a perfect example of what can happen when you get some bounces to go your way, and the Lions are a perfect example of what can happen when they don’t.  They’ll be a lot better next year, but this year just turned into a total disaster.  Maybe they shake it all off and come up big here, but the smart money is on the Bears here.

 

Philadelphia at NY Giants

Philadelphia +7.5

This game goes against what I have been saying for the other 3 games.  The more desperate team here is the Giants, I know.  But my thinking is that this isn’t just a rivalry game.  This is the biggest rivalry in the NFL according to the NFL Network.  So the Eagles would love nothing more than to knock out the Giants, and they would with a win.  Another big thing for me is that Michael Vick is getting the start, and he is literally playing for a job.  He knows he will be released this offseason and so he will be looking to put on a show.  Look at the pay day the last game of the season got a guy like Matt Flynn.  It could be HUGE for Vick.  Another thing going for the Eagles is this will be Andy Reid’s final game as head coach of the Eagles.  His players love the guy, so they will play balls out for him.  Finally, people need to get over the Giants being the defending champs.  This season is very similar to how 2008 went for the Giants.  They were coming off a Super Bowl win, they started out red hot, but faded late in the season.  Take the Eagles getting 7.5 here, I expect this one to be a tight game and if you have to pick an upset then pick this game.  It just has that feeling.  The Eagles ALWAYS seem to punk the Giants.

 

Dallas at Washington

Dallas +3.5

When EVERYONE goes 1 way, go the other!  That is a golden rule.  When everyone else is buying, you sell.  When they sell, you buy.  It works.  Now, this is why it will work here.  The Cowboys have seen the Redskins once already.  The team that loses the game usually comes back with a lot better game plan.  They’re more likely to make the adjustments they need to make.  Also, this Cowboys team is a lot better than last year’s was.  Last year’s team was good and SHOULD have run away with the division.  But they had a disgusting secondary.  This season the secondary and the defense in general has been much improved.  Also remember, RGIII is on a bad knee.  He was gimpy in the close call against the Eagles last week.  If his mobility is limited this will allow the Cowboys to do a lot more on defense then they normally would against RGIII.  I waited all week for this game to move to -3.5, always love having that field goal cushion.  I’m like everyone else in believing there is no way the Redskins should lose this game.  They have the better QB, they’re at home, they’re the hotter team, on and on and on.  But again, when everyone is going one way, go the other.

 

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