NFL Week 4 Picks ATS
Three weeks down, three weeks of winners! 10-6 on the season against the spread (for you kiddies who have been wondering what ATS means, this probably isn’t the article for you if you have been). I was going to have these posted prior to the Colts/Jags game, but what was the point if I wasn’t going to pick it (though I love the Jags because they’re desperate and experienced playing in London). Themes of this week, we have 4 of 5 underdogs, 3 of those 4 are home underdogs. One of these years I’m going to figure out that if you just simply pick home dogs and pick the team getting the most points on the week (this week that would be Cleveland getting 8 in Washington…ironically not a pick of mine because I’m a moron).
Ok, enough self loathing. 10-6 is good, let’s get on with the picks.
Carolina at Atlanta
I like home dogs, I like divisional games being tight, and I like that the public isn’t on the Falcons despite looking pretty good in their last two games. That was a BEAT DOWN on Monday night, and yet they’re still home underdogs. Granted, it’s against the Panthers, not exactly chumps. But more so than all that, I just get a funny feeling about this game. A little like it’s a Vegas bait game, but more so that it feels like a game where nobody can picture the Falcons being 3-1 and the Panthers being 1-3. Yet, it just may happen. Take the home team getting points, it’s never a bad move.
Denver at Tampa Bay
More of the same here. This one really feels like a trap game to me. The Bucs feel like they should be bigger dogs than 3 points to the Broncos. Bucs are coming off an embarrassing home loss to the lowly Rams, and the Broncos are coming off a massive road win in Cincy where Trevor Siemian busted out. I’m not buying it. I’m taking the Bucs getting 3.
Dallas at San Francisco
I love the Niners in this game. No Dez Bryant for Dak Prescott means the Niners D can really shrink the field. And coming off an embarrassing loss in Seattle they’ll be highly motivated, specifically Blaine Gabbert whom it feels is playing for his starting gig now. I have lost no faith in Chip Kelly’s ability to carve up a defense and the Cowboys don’t have a good defense to carve. Niners, likely outright, but take the points since you can.
Kansas City at Pittsburgh
This is not an easy game to pick, but I’m going with the Chiefs getting 4 points. Normally I’d love the Steelers after getting HUMILIATED at the hands of rookie QB Carson Wentz and rookie head coach Doug Pederson. And the Chiefs don’t have the air attack to take advantage of the Steelers weak secondary. But here is what I love. Doug Pederson was the OC for who last season? Andy Reid. So if Pederson exposed the Steelers, then I fully expect Reid to do the same. The Steelers will show up this week, no doubt. They’ll be pissed. But giving a real good Chiefs team 4 points, I’ll take that.
NY Giants at Minnesota
It’s a relatively big number, but I’m starting to buy the Vikings as the best team in the NFC. They’re at least in the conversation, and the Giants aren’t. Maybe this is a trap because logic says with the Giants losing to the Redskins and the Viks winning in Carolina that the public will overrate the Vikings here. But I’ve given it a ton of thought and can’t find any reason the Giants keep this one close. I think the Vikings got the best D in football, Sam Bradford looks real solid even with a weakened running game, and while I don’t see this being very high scoring I like the Vikings to take this one going away.
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