NFL Week 7 Picks ATS

4-0-1 last week!  I bragged about it in my “Hot Takes” on Monday morning, and I’ll brag about it again this morning, and I’ll probably brag about it the day after the Super Bowl when my overall record for this season ends at 18-45-1.  “Sure, I lost you a SHIT LOAD of money this season, but remember my week 6?!”  18-12-1 to date.

Buffalo at Miami

Dolphins +3

Have to love the Dolphins here.  I’m not buying the Bills at all.  They beat the Cards at home which isn’t the impressive win some might think it is (Cards lost at home to the Rams the next week).  They beat the 49ers at home.  They beat the Patriots with Jacoby Brissett at QB.  And they beat the Rams.  That isn’t very impressive, and probably doesn’t warrant being a 3 point favourite on the road against most teams.  The perception of the Dolphins is that they’re awful, yet they beat the Steelers last week.  And before you say “without Rothelisberger”, they were winning that game before Ben went out.  They also damn near pulled the upset in week one at Seattle.  I guess what I’m saying is I see these teams as even, just that the Bills are worse than their record and the Dolphins are better than theirs.  So take the Dolphins getting 3.

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Browns +10

Here I go again picking the Browns.  I remember hearing a stat one time, about two years ago, where if you just simply bet on the double digit under dog in the NFL you would clean up.  It was a lot more technical than how I just elegantly worded it, but you get the point.  I said it last week, I won’t move off the Browns being that major under dog who covers and even though I’ve been burned a few times by them this season I still believe they can beat the spread.  Last week they were right on schedule with a nice little meaningless end of the game TD to beat the spread.  The Bengals played better at Foxboro last week, but still tripped all over themselves.  They just aren’t the same team this season, and while they’ll win, I don’t believe they’ll impress and the Browns will give them a game.

New Orleans at Kansas City

Chiefs -6

This game is just ALL WRONG for the Saints.  A tough defensive squad, a tremendous running game, a physical team, and playing on the road in one of the toughest road stadiums in the league.  The Saints can’t win on the road, and really can’t match up with the Chiefs.  Look at how they handled the Raiders passing attack and that was in Oakland.  No chance for the Saints here, Chiefs blow them out.

San Diego at Atlanta

Chargers +6.5

This feels like a bit of a Vegas bait to me.  Falcons have been much better than the lowly Chargers, right?  Well, first of all I expect this to be a let down for the Falcons after playing the Panthers, Broncos and Seahawks the last three weeks.  Another thing working for the Chargers is that this game starts on their time.  1:05 PM PST.  That’s huge, because traditionally West coasts teams playing in the East and starting at 10 AM PST are terrible.  Still another thing working for the Chargers is they’re coming off playing the Thursday nighter, so they’ve had 10 days off.  And finally, they are playing everyone tough, and could easily be a 4-2 team, maybe even 5-1.  They’ve blown leads late.  With all these factors added up, I really wouldn’t be surprised at with a Chargers upset here, though now that I’ve jinxed it….

Houston at Denver

Broncos -8

That’s a massive number, but I feel like this game couldn’t be more wrong for the Texans.  Brock Osweiler sucks, there is no nice way to put that.  John Elway walking away from him was a better decision than I even thought.  As I said a few weeks back, it’s now a trend with Gary Kubiak.  His system/play calling makes QB’s look great.  Matt Schaub, T.J. Yates, Brock Osweiler, Trevor Siemian, for one game Paxton Lynch did and he is as raw as a kid can be!  I know it’s a big number, but the Broncos at home on 10 days rest should completely shutdown the Texans passing attack.  I could honestly see a couple of pick six’s happening in this one.  Couple that with the fact that the Texans D just doesn’t look the same minus J.J. Watt so Siemian and more so C.J. Anderson should be able to put up some points too.

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