Super Bowl XLVIII Preview (and pick ATS)

Believe it or not without any assistance I knew that roman numeral.  Thank you Super Bowl and Wrestlemania for teaching me roman numerals!  Well this is it.  The season is done as of Sunday night, and I want to cry.  Thankfully, for a sports wack job like myself it is an Olympic year so I have something to fill that February gap.  But still, it is going to be another LOOOOOOONNNNNNG wait until September.  Even a longer wait this year until the draft too that is I believe 2 weeks later than usual.  Ok, time to suck it up and get to the game.

Well this is the matchup that most predicted at the start of the season.  I try to look for the game that nobody expects but seems logical.  I’m NEVER right about that.  Now, this is extremely rare too that it is in fact the most likely matchup at the start of the season playing in the Super Bowl.  But these predictions have a much better shot at being right the rare time that they are.  Of course, the most obvious pick next year won’t happen, because as I said this rarely happens.

Regardless of all that, we have a potential great game on our hands.  Best offense vs best defense.  And these are all timer’s in my books.  The way the rules are now everything is skewed, but the Broncos offense would have been great in any era, and so would the Seahawks D.  The Seahawks D is to be feared by opposing teams and the last time I remember a D like that you would have to go back to the 2002 Bucs.  This is such a tough game to pick, but I’ll do my best.

Seattle vs Denver

Denver -2

Over 47.5

Anyone who claims they have a good feel for this game is lying to you.  But for me, the weather was the big detail.  As I write this, it is supposed to be 40 and very little wind at kickoff.  That means that Peyton Manning should be able to throw it.  Of course that is the marquee matchup, Manning and the Broncos passing game against the “Legion of Boom” secondary of the Seahawks.  I do like Manning having 2 weeks to prepare for them, and getting pressure on Manning could really take him off his game, but I believe that matchup will be a wash.  Peyton will put up decent numbers, but be limited in what he can do.

A more intriguing matchup that has been talked about more and more this week is Marshawn Lynch against the Broncos run D which ranked 7th in the regular season.  ESPN radio host Colin Cowherd said on Monday that in talking to one NFL scout he was told that Broncos DT Terrance Knighton has been the best D-lineman in the 2nd half of the season.  Remember, the Pats run game looked amazing heading into the AFC championship game and was a complete non factor in the game.  So while the Broncos D hasn’t been that great this season, they can take away the Seahawks strength on offense.

So that means that Russell Wilson will have to make some throws.  I personally am shocked that people are questioning this kid’s ability coming into this week.  I honestly haven’t noticed the “struggles” he’s had the last month or so.  He’s looked fine to me, and I’m not a stat guy.  Now, the whole “he wins” argument gets disgustingly over blown at times.  Tim Tebow was an awful QB who happened to do enough to win for about 8 games.  But Russell Wilson IS in fact one of these guys.  He reminds me a ton of Tom Brady in 2001.  The Pats had a great D and Brady didn’t do anything flashy.  But he had amazing composure and made all the throws he needed to.  This is Wilson.  He has basically nothing to work with in the passing game yet he still gets the job done.  I could care less about his numbers, he’ll be great.

But having said that….I just think the Broncos are a little bit better, and with the line less than 3 points I always simply pick who I believe will be the winner of the game.  I have been dead wrong on the Seahawks this season.  Not a Pete Carroll fan but he has done a great job and I completely get why players love playing for him.  So it isn’t anything against the Seahawks fan (nor is this explanation for those of you who are true Seahawks fans or even those who have jumped on their bandwagon…which are a lot of you).  But I just believe at the end of the day the Broncos are a little more well rounded, a little more trust worthy away from home, a little more experienced, and there for will just be a little bit better on Sunday.  I just hope it lives up to the great game it should be.

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