Victims of Their Own Success

You know I get asked all the time “Tyler, where does the inspiration come from?”  Wow, that is an amazing question.  I don’t think of my work on here as writing as much as I do art.  And being that it’s art, I believe my inspiration really comes from the beauty of the world.  And beauty is all over, including from within.

Douchy enough for you?  That’s my douchy way of saying my buddy Miller and I were texting the other day….

Miller is a Seahawks fan.  And he’s obviously discouraged with how they’ve started, as a lot of you are I’m sure because the Seahawks are and always have been a pretty popular team in Western Canada.  And actually, though I didn’t do it quite as douchy as the opening, it did hit me what the biggest issue is facing the Seahawks, which is that too many teams are now built just like they were.

When they drafted Russell Wilson and first emerged as a powerhouse football team in 2012, the NFL was all about the passing game.  QB numbers were going through the roof, and it was thought that because of the new rules implemented over the previous 8 seasons that there was no way to defend.  So teams would find their QB, make sure he has an O-line to protect him, and then just find him WR’s.  Screw the running game.  Screw the secondary.  First team to 40 MIGHT win.

The Seahawks and the 49ers both said “if everyone is built this way, we’ll go the other way and be a matchup nightmare for all those teams”.  And what do you know, those 2 were the best teams in the NFL from 2011-2014.  San Fran went to 3 straight NFC title games including winning it in 2012, and of course the Seahawks went to back to back Super Bowls, winning the first and should have won back to back.

Now I had been noticing something in the first 6 weeks of the NFL season.  Games just aren’t as interesting.  They aren’t boring, but there doesn’t seem to be as much going on as there was in 2011 and 2012.  More running the ball, tougher D, most teams have copied the Seahawks and Niners model.

So now that huge advantage which the Seahawks once had is now gone.  3-4 after Thursday night, but it’s not looking great for them right now.  Look who they have lost to:

St. Louis – built like the Seahawks

Green Bay – still pass happy but much improved running game and D

Cincinnati – built like the Seahawks

Carolina – built like the Seahawks

3 of the 4 losses have been against carbon copies of what they have been.  Then look at who they’ve beat:

Chicago – pass happy, awful D

Detroit – pass happy, rebuilding D

San Fran – ….well…they don’t really do ANYTHING…An NFL Europe team

And the Lions game as we know they caught a HUGE break or else they easily could be 2-5.  Then again, they were very much so in every game they lost.

But you can look at the D and say it isn’t what it was, that’s somewhat true.  You can say Marshawn Lynch hasn’t been 100% and that’s true.  You can say that what happened in the Super Bowl is now in their heads, and that might be true too.  But I really believe all that has gone on here is that the rest of the league has caught on.  This is the way to build.  And it’s nothing against your team Seahawk fans but for a guy who doesn’t have a horse in this race known as the NFL it makes for a BORING watch!  At least compared to 4 years ago.

But enough about a team that has already played in week 7, lets discuss the teams who are playing today.  That’s right, it is time for my picks ATS to go absolutely horrible.  Actually this season both in NFL and college ball I haven’t been paying real close attention to my record on the season, but I’ve had a ton of either 3-2 or 2-3 weeks.  I’m picking them a lot better on here then I did in the actual games I bet and while I don’t want to give away too much, let’s just say I’m down 100 bucks.  Damnit, I said the quiet part loud and the loud part…I didn’t even type.  Shit it’s 1:18 AM, here are your picks.

Minnesota at Detroit

Vikings -2

I’m not huge on the Vikings like some others are.  But the Lions just aren’t that good of a team right now, even though they got their first win of the season last week at home against the Bears.  Swallowing 2 points is nothing.

NY Jets at New England

Jets +7.5

The Jets are good in case nobody notices.  This will be a low scoring game, Pats win, but it’ll be within a touchdown.

New Orleans at Indianapolis

Colts +4

I’m not huge on the Colts, but I’ve REALLY soured on the Saints.  And with this game at home, and having their D playing a lot better of late, I’m thinking the Colts win this one comfortably.

Oakland at San Diego

Raiders +4

Rivalry game, Chargers coming off a tough one in Green Bay, Raiders coming off a bye.  In case we all forgot, the Raiders are pretty solid this season.  So I really like this bet.

Dallas at NY Giants

Cowboys +3.5

So this feels like a low number.  The Cowboys maybe should be bigger dogs in this game.  But I’ve been burned a lot lately by getting away from the Vegas bait.  My initial inclination was to take the Giants.  “Way too low of a spread”.  Cowboys are off a bye, new QB, and as a Christine Michael fantasy keeper league owner…the Cowboys have seemed hell bent on making him the starting running back.  So perhaps he’s the fit they need behind that O-line, and if he is then life should be much easier in Matt Cassel’s first start.

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