NFL Picks – Divisional Weekend

Didn’t know what else to call it and didn’t want the title to be too long.  Ok, so for the 3rd year in a row I did not win a game on wildcard weekend ATS.  It is the worst weekend on the NFL schedule to bet games.  If you had a big weekend on wildcard weekend, congrats…it proves you are lucky, not smart.  0-10-2 or whatever I am over the last 3 years on that weekend proves I’m unlucky, not dumb.  Its been a bad season and quite frankly since about week 13 I’ve had no desire to write these at all because up is down and right is left this season and its just been a season impossible to pick games.  But I’m going to see this through even though I realize I missed the last 2 weeks of the season, but that was because of website issues, not a lack of doing them.  If you want to pick the over/under this weekend, take the over in all of these games.  I don’t know what the over is, but the over on this weekend has won 11 of the last 12 divisional playoff games (thanks to Phil Steele for that tip).

New Orleans at Seattle

New Orleans +8

This game and the New England game scare me because I can see them being tight and I can see them being blowouts.  And normally I say “when in doubt, take the dog” but that theory has been crushed every time I’ve gone to it this season….literally every time.  But I like the Saints being highly motivated because of what happened a month ago in Seattle, and having confidence having just won a big game in cold weather.  I don’t know if the Seahawks are making the right move dressing Percy Harvin either.  I could see that being more of a distraction for OC Darrell Bevell more than helping because he’s dressed but he likely isn’t close to 100%.  I don’t know, maybe I’ve just been looking for reasons to go against the Seahawks all season than pick them like everyone else, but I do think they’ll win…just don’t see it being a blowout this time.

Indianapolis at New England

New England -7

I understand the line here, because it’s a dome team going outside.  I love the Colts, but you can’t ignore that.  I believe strongly that this line is meant to make the public take the Colts getting points.  The Pats have been AWESOME on this weekend in the last 2 playoffs.  And the Colts coming off that big comeback will have the public believing that they’ll ride that momentum into the AFC championship game.  I don’t buy it.  I think the Pats are a totally different animal.  Experience never gets talked about in the NFL, but in the playoffs it matters a lot.  The Colts came back on an inexperienced Kansas City team, but they got destroyed last year by an experienced Baltimore team, and the Pats are even more experienced than the Ravens were.  So dome team going outside, better QB (not for much longer), better coach, more experienced, and add Talib locking down Hilton.  Pats cover the huge number.

San Francisco at Carolina

Carolina +1.5

This was at Carolina +2, it actually has moved to a pick’em, but I got the Panthers at 1.5 so that’s what I’m calling here, although Carolina is winning this game regardless.  First of all, when has Colin Kaepernick beat an AVERAGE defense in the playoffs?  He is 3-1 postseason.  The teams he beat?  Packers twice (horrible D) and the Falcons (just as horrible if not worse).  When he plays tough or even decent D’s and he is forced to think a little more he fails.  Last 2 games in Seattle he was dreadful.  Seattle is great at home, but he has looked as bad as anyone facing them.  Even when he’s beat the Seahawks he hasn’t been too good.  Meanwhile when he faced the Panthers this season….at home…he was horrific.  Cam Newton on the other hand, even though I’m not a big fan, has got the job done against tough D’s this season.  Carolina has all the motivation in the world.  They started this week off as the underdog, everyone in the world is picking the 49ers, they’re rested while the Niners faced a pretty physical run game last week in Green Bay, and the deciding factor for me is that it’s a West coast team going East for a 10 AM PST game on Sunday.  Panthers take this one outright.

San Diego at Denver

San Diego +9.5

Now I don’t think the Broncos are getting upset again this year, but I do believe this one will be a struggle for them.  The Chargers have NOTHING to lose.  Their Super Bowl was getting in the playoffs, and last week they played as loose as a team possibly can and this week they should play the same.  The Broncos will be a bit tight I’m sure, but at the end of the day Peyton will be HIGHLY motivated to win this game and I doubt he lets the Broncos lose.  Plus, they lost to the Chargers last time out in Denver.  Pretty tough to beat the same team 2 times in a row.  So the Chargers cover, the Broncos win.

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