NFL picks – week 2

 

Don’t look at my CFL picks, focus on college and NFL….PLEASE!!!  It was a shakey start last week, 0-2 and things didn’t look good.  But like the 95 Mariners my picks came storming back from an 0-2 deficit to come out of the week a 3-2 winner!  Now week 2 and they’re coming at you a little early.  The reason?  The Thursday night game.  I’m honestly stunned that the line is what it is and so I thought I would get a jump on things.  5 games, to quote the Shermanator….”Confidence is high.  Repeat confidence is high”.

 

Chicago at Green Bay

Chicago +6

REALLY?!  +6?!  REAAAAAAALLLY?!?!  I will take that and run!  The Bears looked GOOD against the Colts to open up, and the Pack looked good on offense, but once again their defense looked horrific.  The Bears essentially had a cake walk against the Colts.  Wasn’t a tight game, the Colts aren’t a very physical team, couldn’t have worked out better for the Bears heading into a short week.  The Packers had a slug fest with one of the most physical teams in football.  It was a game where they were battling back in the 4th quarter trying to make a game of it.  Add to this it doesn’t sound like Greg Jennings will play tonight.  Don’t go nuts on it but I love the Bears with the points in this spot.  I think the Bears can win this game outright, but should keep it within 3 or 4.  Also just for kicks, I love the over in this game (51.5).

 

Baltimore at Philadelphia

Baltimore +2

Something doesn’t feel right here.  I must be missing something.  I know it’s in Philly, but I don’t see how after seeing these teams play in week 1 that the Ravens can be an underdog.  Yet they are so I’m taking the points.  But it just feels like one of those games that I’m so sure about that Vegas knows something the rest of us don’t.  With the Pack and Bears I understand the logic of the public thinking the Pack will be ticked off and play their asses off.  With this one I expect the Ravens to put a hurt on Mike Vick and the Ravens offense to do more of the same that they did Monday night.  Maybe the Eagles do win this game and do beat the spread, but the smart bet here is the Ravens and the points.  Sometimes you make the right bet and don’t win, so it could happen here.

 

Tampa Bay at NY Giants

Tampa Bay +7.5

I know what everyone is thinking.  The Giants played bad in the opener and are going to take it out on the Bucs.  Here is the problem….the Bucs are better than people think.  Josh Freeman is a very good QB, Doug Martin looked real good in his first game, and that defense looked real good in shutting down Cam Newton.  Don’t forget, the Giants were 9-7 last year, 6-6, 7-7 late in the year.  I think the Giants will win this one, but the Bucs definitely have the talent to stay in this one, and will have something to prove.  Everyone is going to give the defending champs their best shot, it’s too many points.

 

Dallas at Seattle

Seattle +3

I honestly thought this line would move to -3.5 or 4 by now but it hasn’t moved all week.  I really thought people would go heavy on Dallas after the big week 1 win.  Nope.  They must think the same thing that I do which is that this feels like a trap game for the Cowboys.  +3 is touchy here because if you look at it on paper it’s the vastly improved Dallas defense vs Seattle’s rookie 3rd round QB.  The Cowboys will have had 11 days off, the Seahawks just the normal week.  If Skelton/Kolb can put up 20 points on the Seahawks D, what can Tony Romo do?  I don’t have answers for any of those, I just know that CenturyLink field is a really tough place to play, and the Cowboys could have trouble getting up for a game in Seattle after such a huge win in New York.  Maybe they win but much like the Ravens, the Seahawks getting points is the smart bet here.

 

NY Jets at Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh -5.5

This one may seem real odd considering the Jets looked so good and the Steelers lost a tough one in Denver.  But I’m not a believer in the Jets despite the dominant win.  I watch the Bills a lot, and if there is one thing I know is that when you think the Bills have turned a corner, they fall flat on their faces which is exactly what happened in that game.  Ben Roethlisberger won’t be throwing the ball to every Jet defender he can find.  Fitzpatrick’s turnovers killed the Bills and lifted the Jets.  As for the Steelers, they get Ryan Clark and James Harrison back.  5.5 is a big number but at home, desperate, I believe the Steelers could run away with this one.

 

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