NFL Picks – Week 5

Well it ain’t going good through the first 4 weeks!  1 winning week (only 3-2), although from the sounds of things it is going MUCH worse for many others in Vegas and making picks throughout North America!  I got to be honest though, I don’t feel like I’m making bad picks, just poor luck.  That will change this week though!  I promise…well I think so….I hope so….please just give me a winning week!!!

Detroit at Green Bay

Detroit +7

I just think this is too many points to give the Lions.  I know the thinking, the Pack are tough at home, the Lions are bad on the road, and the Pack are coming off a bye.  I get all that, but the Lions are playing really well.  They should have won the game in Arizona in week 2 and there for should be 4-0.  Even with an extra week to prepare I just don’t see how the Packers can do anything to slow down Stafford, Johnson and Bush.  Also, games within the division are tight more often than not.  Smart bet in my mind is the Lions here.

New England at Cincinnati

Cincinnati -1

Why are the Bengals the favorites in this game?  Sucker bet.  2nd week in a row I’ve been able to sniff out a classic Vegas sucker bet.  The public will be all over the Pats getting points after looking so good against the Falcons on Sunday night.  Then you have the Bengals who looked awful against the lowly Browns so OBVIOUSLY the Pats will blow out the Bengals.  Nope.  First of all, no Vince Wilfork.  That is a brutal loss for what was becoming an excellent Patriot defense.  Wilfork, Jones, Talib, great LB core, it was finally coming together.  Now they’ll need to get used to life without the big man and it will be an adjustment.  I would watch for a lot of Grisham and Eifert as Talib will take Green away, and the Bengals run game to be heavily featured without Wilfork.  The Bengals play up and down to their opponents, so they’ll be ready for this one.

Carolina at Arizona

Arizona +2

I know the Panthers are coming off the bye week, but really?!  The Cardinals are 2-2, have a tough defense, can win ugly, and Cam Newton has looked pretty awful outside of the game vs the Giants 2 weeks ago.  I just don’t see how the Cardinals are getting points at home between these teams.  I’ve been wrong lots already this season, but how do you trust the Panthers on the road?  Don’t, the Cardinals getting points is the smart bet here.

Denver at Dallas

Dallas +8.5

I realize the Broncos look like the greatest team of all time through 4 weeks of this season.  But to give a team as talented as the Cowboys 8.5 points at home is just too many.  Monte Kiffin is a great defensive coordinator and will have a great game plan for Manning and company.  The Cowboys also have corners who can stay with the Broncos WR’s.  DeMarcus Ware could also be a big problem for the Broncos in this one with no Ryan Clady watching Manning’s blind side.  Finally, the Cowboys offense has the talent to stay with the Broncos should it become a shootout.  I really believe the Cowboys keep this one close, may even win it outright.

San Diego at Oakland

San Diego -4.5

A lot of this bet kind of goes against the way I think.  Chargers coming off a big win at home, in division games are a tougher haul then expected, but the Chargers are damn good this year and nobody has really noticed yet.  I think we will after this week.  The Raiders are battling hard, but they just don’t have much talent.  Pryor back in at QB this week could help a bit, but he wasn’t setting the world on fire in the first 3 games anyway.  And while it wouldn’t be shocking for a team to have a let down after a big home win, the Chargers still aren’t getting any love from the media as a good team.  Phillip Rivers is back to being one of the best QB’s in the league and he’ll prove that again this week.

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