NFL Picks – Week 4 – Soups on Hockey

You know I would feel bad about how the picks have gone this season (now 7-10 on the year) if my picks weren’t doing better than most! It has been a messed up season to this point, anyone covering the NFL will tell you that. But you just have to ride this out if you bet the league. All things balance out

Baltimore at Buffalo

Buffalo +3.5

Turmoil. The Ravens have the big distraction this week of the bar fight. I believe the betting public will be sky high on the Ravens because of the blowout win against the Texans, and low on the Bills because they lost to the Jets and the Jets are terrible right? (could be and maybe should be 3-0) So part of this line could be Vegas baiting you into taking the Ravens. Don’t take the bait. The Bills have shown a lot of fight in their 3 games this season and aren’t about to start quitting on the season. Not yet. They will, but not this week. Also, the defending champs will always have a target on their backs. Love the Bills here.

Chicago at Detroit

Chicago +3

Love the Bears here. Both good teams, but the Bears matchup pretty good with the Lions. Charles Tillman should make Matt Stafford a little nervous when looking to Calvin Johnson, and now he will be without Nate Burlson on the other side so this isn’t looking good for the Lions. The Bears are really good, and I’m while I’m willing to be patient with some of my preseason predictions like the Seahawks missing the playoffs, I already know that having the Bears finish last in this division was a HUGE mistake on my part. I’m not ready to say they’ll over take the Pack in the division, but they’re at least going to give them a hell of a run. Both teams are for real, but the Bears getting points here is a little ridiculous. I believe this should be a pick’em.

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Cleveland +4.5

You think they’ll lose that chip they had on their shoulders last week?! No they won’t. All the momentum in the world right now for the Browns, and the Bengals are coming off an emotional high last week at home in a comeback win against the Pack. Add to this, in division games are ALWAYS tough. To go on the road and beat a team in the same state as you and have something to rally around is just asking too much in my opinion. The Browns are primed for another upset, but just take the points here in what should be a tight, low scoring game.

New England at Atlanta

Atlanta -2

As I type this, it’s actually only Atlanta -1. But the bets have already gone big on the Falcons, so I’m saying this gets to -2. Still take the dirty birds. The Falcons are going to be a desperate football team, and the Pats are actually lucky to be 3-0. They could easily be 1-2. Their schedule has been the easiest in all of football through 3 weeks. The Falcons might be only 1-2, but the teams they lost to are a combined 6-0, and both loses were on the road so….yeah, those aren’t exactly bad loses.

Miami at New Orleans

Miami +6.5

And speaking of those 2 teams the Falcons lost to…not really shocked by either teams record. I didn’t think the Dolphins would win the first game in Cleveland, but since that win I’ve had a feeling about the fish that they were better than we all thought. The Saints really didn’t look good until last week. Now that doesn’t mean the Dolphins will win and the Saints aren’t good. But the point is that 6 points just seems like too many. This could be the same type of game for the Dolphins that the 49ers game in Detroit was a few years ago. Both teams had great records going into the now infamous hand shake game. The Lions were the team everyone bought heading in (undefeated) and the Niners were just a nice underdog having a cute little season to that point but were going to come back down to earth. We were all VERY wrong. This game has the same kind of feel. Joe Philbin is a good coach, Ryan Tannehill is better than most realize, and both Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas are running the ball real well. Take the fish getting points.

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