NFL Picks – Week 9

FINALLY a break through week!  4-1 with my picks, now just 2 games under .500 on the season ATS.  Let’s just keep this roll going!  Something that I’m trying, last week I picked quite a few games I wouldn’t normally pick (like the Broncos as 12 point favorites), but that’s the kind of season it’s been.  It worked for me.  But what I’ve found out when betting football during seasons that just simply nothing adds up, you don’t play with that fire 2 weeks in a row.  You won’t screw the bad luck 2 weeks in a row so to speak.  This week, I’m heavy underdogs as usual.  Now the underdogs only cover about 50% of the time so its not as if picking the dogs is the better way to go, but I’m simply better at finding the good underdog plays (or at least I have been in the past).  We will see what this week brings.  It’s another TERRIBLE week, or at least as terrible as the NFL can be.

Kansas City at Buffalo

Buffalo +3

I’m calling the upset here.  This is another Vegas bait bet.  No reason at all that the Chiefs shouldn’t be 6 point favorites in this one, yet they aren’t.  Who knows who will end up starting this game at QB for the Bills, Doug Marrone doesn’t even know right now!  But if it’s Thad Lewis, he’s looked pretty solid thus far!  The Bills have a pretty solid defense, and this will be a very low scoring game.  Chiefs maybe finally have a let down, and the Bills rise up and pull off the upset.

Tampa Bay at Seattle

Tampa Bay +16

It is just too many points, simple as that.  The Seahawks are beat up on both sides of the ball, and the Bucs have had 10 days off since being humiliated at home against the Panthers, while the Seahawks are on short rest this week.  And while the Bucs are a mess, there is so much talent on that defense that if they’re up for the game, they’ll stay in it.  I know it’s a lot of travel going from the Southeast to the Northwest, and that home field is a ridiculously huge advantage, but I view this to be more like the Titans game up there than the Jags game.  Bucs show some fight and keep it respectable.

Baltimore at Cleveland

Baltimore -2.5

I have to pick at least 1 favorite this season don’t I?!  Afterall, it’s all the underdog picks that have killed me this season.  Ravens coming off the bye, the Browns have Jason Campbell at QB.  Do I really need more reason than that?!  I know its in division but it just isn’t enough points for the Browns.  Under a field goal, I love the Ravens.  Had this been 3.5, I probably would love the Browns.  So I do see this being a close game, but as I said the Ravens are coming off the bye and the Browns are starting Jason Campbell who isn’t awful, but he’s not worthy of being a starter in the NFL.

Pittsburgh at New England

Pittsburgh +6.5

Love the Steelers here.  The Pats aren’t really running away with any game this season.  This one is going to be low scoring as the Steelers defense I expect to bounce back with a strong game after getting embarrassed on a few plays in Oakland which of course resulted in a loss.  I’m guessing that prior to the Oakland game, the Steelers would have been only 3.5 or 4 point dogs.  Overreaction by the public I believe is what RJ Bell often talks about.  Well this feels like one of those.  Add to it, Tom Brady’s hand didn’t look good at the end of last weeks game.  Another little thing going for the Steelers is that this is the last Pats game before their bye week which has been a killer for teams this season.

Chicago at Green Bay

Chicago +11

I know Jay Cutler is out, but the Bears are off the bye week, and even though it was in limited action McCowan looked really good against the Redskins.  And then you have the divisonal play factor and I simply can’t understand why the Bears are such heavy underdogs in this game even though it is in Green Bay.  Pack have played great lately, but this one is going to be a tight one I’m thinking, so take those 11 points and enjoy.

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