A losing week.  Only the 2nd time this season.  25-15 on the season never felt so terrible.  It’s still an awesome record, but 30-15 sounds a hell of a lot better.  Getting into a tricky part of the year though, as a lot of teams are showing what they are, so my theory of “when in doubt, pick the dogs” could be tested.  But lucky for me I’m not in doubt.  I feel good about this weeks picks.  Feel great about these picks!  Feel amazing about these picks!  Well, I feel ok about these picks…..


Baltimore at Cleveland

Cleveland +4

Maybe I’m crazy here.  I know the Ravens are coming off the bye.  I know they’ll be a hell of a lot better than they were in Houston.  I know getting Ngata healthy and Suggs having a game under his belt will help, although Ngata is now listed as questionable for the game so if he’s out this pick gets even better.  I know all that.  But I also know that the Browns are at home, they played the Ravens tough last time (they’re playing everyone tough), and they’ll keep this game close.  Could be a field goal game, I could even see the Browns pulling the big upset for the 2nd week in a row.


Minnesota at Seattle

Seattle -4

Blowout.  The Vikings are on the decline, much like the Cardinals are.  Their best weapon is Adrian Peterson and he will be such down by the Seahawks defense.  Ponder won’t be able to throw against them.  The Vikings defense could keep them in the game, but Wilson is good enough to put some points on the board.  Add in Marshawn Lynch, Sidney Rice looked great last week in Detroit, the Seahawks offense is coming around.  Seahawks are great at home, Vikings are on the decline, Seahawks will crush them.


Miami at Indianapolis

Indianapolis +2.5

Hahahhaha!  Why are the Colts dogs in this game?!  Maybe it’s Vegas looking to deke everyone, but take the smart bet which is Luck and the Colts getting points at home.  2nd week in a row for the Dolphins on the road, that hurts.  Tannehill is beat up and may not play, that hurts.  Playing a good QB in Andrew Luck, that hurts.  I’ve jumped on the Dolphins bandwagon, they look damn good!  But so do the Colts and Indy shouldn’t be underdogs in this game.  Maybe Miami pulls it out, but the Colts are the smart bet.


Tampa Bay at Oakland

Oakland -1.5

I’m kind of going against what I just said.  Tampa shouldn’t be a dog in this game and they are even after the huge win on Thursday night in Minny.  But I do have one logical thing here….east coast team travelling west.  It is TOUGH on NFL teams.  So while Tampa has had the 10 day layoff, and Oakland has been OK but not anything great, I just think Vegas believes the travel matters THAT much in this instance.  Also, like the Dolphins it is Tampa’s 2nd road game in a row.  So unlike Miami v Indy I can see some reasoning here and that’s enough for me to roll with the Raiders at home.


Dallas at Atlanta

Dallas +4

The Cowboys will get up for this game.  They’ll be a little bit desperate, and they’re one of the few teams in the NFL that can match the Falcons talent.  Carr and Claiborne vs White and Jones will be a great matchup.  As I usually say when picking dogs, I don’t think Dallas will win the game (although they could), but I think 4 points is just too many.  It will be seperated by a field goal in my opinion.  Even though the Cowboys lost last week, that comeback will likely have got their confidence sky high.


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