NFL Week 10 Picks ATS

As you may be starting to notice, I love doing these historic pic mashup’s.  Ok, so last week…GROSS.  I came crashing back to earth last week with a horrendous 0-4-1 week.  After a three week stretch of 11-3-1 I go 0-4-1.  That’s betting football right there.  Makes no sense.  25-18-3 now on the season, which is still real solid, but I think I can do better.  I DID hit both over/under’s last week, so I’ll do two more of those today, and I did pretty good on guessing the lines so that is back for another week.  I know you’re just as excited to get this started as I am.  You’re…not?  Oh, well, nobody values your opinion anyway…stupid idiot.

Denver at New Orleans

Saints -3

This line I believe is one of those designed to put money on the Broncos, don’t.  The Saints are getting really hot, and the Broncos are starting to show cracks in the foundation.  Teams are figuring out Trevor Siemian, and the D is starting to get beat up.  No Aqib Talib again this week, T.J. Ward is questionable, no Derek Wolfe, this D is hurting bad.  Drew Brees is going to have his way with them.  Also, one of my favourite things is happening here.  Broncos, a MST team is playing in the East, 11 AM start for them.

Green Bay at Tennessee

Titans +3

Very simply the Packers seem to have a ton of problems in their locker room, and the Titans are going to run the football down their throats.  No Clay Matthews, so an already tough QB to track down gets tougher to track down for the Packers D.  I really believe the Titans are going to take this one outright.

Los Angeles at NY Jets

Jets -1.5

Easy bet here.  I think the reason the Jets are only 1.5 point favourites is because of the uncertainty of their QB situation.  Sounds like Fitzpatrick is going to go, but even if he doesn’t I don’t think it’s much of a drop off to Bryce Petty.  I also think the public are down on the Jets after the loss to the Dolphins, but the Dolphins are playing great if you haven’t noticed.  Meanwhile the Rams just aren’t that good of a team.  And again we have a West coast team playing a 10 AM PST game.  It’ll be a pretty low scoring game, but I believe the Jets will take it and with it only being 1.5, I love the Jets.

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Steelers -2.5

I don’t know why I keep doing this to myself.  The Cowboys, who I like to see do good unlike most, make me look foolish every week.  I project them to fall a little and they have embarrassed me every single time.  So here we are, Steelers giving 2.5 points.  But I have to think that the highly talented Steelers knock them off, because the Steelers keep playing up to their opponents.  Combine that with the fact that the Cowboys have had the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point, and the Cowboys secondary is a bit beat up which is the last thing you need against this Steelers passing attack.  I do worry a little that everyone is just assuming Roethlisberger will be much better this week, I don’t think it’s far fetched to assume that he’s still going to be playing very hurt.  But that’s still not enough to sway me the other way.

Cincinnati at NY Giants

Bengals -1

Bengals win here, I just don’t doubt it.  I know, the Giants looked ok off their bye week, but everyone should look good off their bye week.  Unless you have a terrible head coach, you should always look good off your bye week.  Well, now the Bengals are off their bye week.  And as much flack as Marvin Lewis gets for early playoff losses and last year’s implosion in the AFC wildcard game, Lewis is a damn good coach.  Add to that, the Bengals are a much more talented team than the Giants are.  Remember too, even though the Giants won last week, Doug Pederson’s play calling likely lost that game for the Eagles.  Had the Eagles connected on that fade route at the end of the game, the Giants would likely be a lot bigger dogs than they are this week.

Over/Under

2-0 last week

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Over 50

I don’t see these teams stopping.  This game is going to be a shootout, and I like the Steelers because while Prescott has proven himself in every situation thus far, facing Big Ben, in Pittsburgh, he’ll try to keep up but I don’t think he can.

San Francisco at Arizona

Over 48.5

The Niners can’t stop anyone, so the Cards off a bye are going to obliterate their defense.  The Cards might put up 41 on their own here.  And Chip Kelly as a play caller, despite the Cards D being as good as it is, will put up some points.  I’d be pretty stunned if this game went under 50, and you don’t even need it to get to 50.

Guessing the Lines (week 11)

8/14 right last week

New Orleans at Carolina -3.5

Pittsburgh -10.5 at Cleveland

Baltimore at Dallas -6.5

Jacksonville at Detroit -4.5

Tennessee at Indianapolis -1.5

Buffalo at Cincinnati -3

Tampa Bay at Kansas City -7

Chicago at NY Giants -4

Arizona at Minnesota -2

Miami -1.5 at Los Angeles

New England -13 at San Francisco

Philadelphia at Seattle -6

Green Bay at Washington -3

Houston at Oakland -7

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