NFL Week 9 Hot Takes

Another late one this week, but since it makes more sense to do this after the Monday nighter, and I have hockey Sunday nights, I guess you’ll all just have to be patient for my amazing Hot Takes blog on Tuesday morning from now on.  I know that this is basically what you’re all living for at this point…

I’ll start with the Ravens/Steelers game in Baltimore and this really is one of the best rivalries in football.  Having said that, why was Roethlisberger starting that game?  He was awful, and Landry Jones isn’t that great but he’s better than what Roethlisberger was.  This Steelers team should be up there with New England, but they just feel sloppy.  The Ravens are terrible despite a now 4-4 record, and shouldn’t be close to the Steelers, yet they beat them pretty handily.

What more can be said about the Cowboys?  I STILL want them to go with Tony Romo in the playoffs though, and I don’t think I’ll move off this point that it simply comes down to the fact that rookie QB’s don’t win in the playoffs.  But no doubt at this point that this team is far and away the best team in the NFC right now.  Not that it was noticeable in the game Sunday because the Browns start Cody Kessler at QB, but their D isn’t getting anywhere near the love they should be.  Talk about disrespect, NOBODY thought they were anything even decent entering the season.  That secondary is one of the best in football, which is allowing their defensive front to get some pressure on QB’s.  Not a lot, but enough.

Meanwhile in Minny, even though the Vikings are really struggling right now, I think we might have seen the Lions take a major step towards joining that “top team in the NFC” conversation.  Granted, it’s an awful conversation at this point, but that was a very impressive win.  And they’re a solid team.  Stafford is great, and has a lot of weapons.  The D isn’t great but they aren’t terrible.  They’re 20th in total yards right now.  If they can just improve to say, 15th in that category it could make the difference for a Lions team that has now joined the race for 1st in the NFC North.

I have to at least mention that the Dolphins have now won three straight.  That’s nice, but all three at home against the Jets, Bills and a very inconsistent Steelers team (the game where Roethlisberger first went down).  Nothing impressive just yet at 4-4, but you need to crawl before you walk, and Adam Gase MAYBE has this team pointed in the right direction.

Carolina won again.  They aren’t done you know.  They wouldn’t have been done in a normal season, but especially in a year where every team in the NFC is seemingly going to go 8-8.

The problem for the Panthers is the Saints are starting to look REAL good.  I talked about it heading into the Seattle game that if they could win that one they’d be in the driver seat.  Then they went out and destroyed the hapless 49ers on Sunday.  The real tough game for them in their next four looked like it would be Denver.  But the Broncos just got badly exposed by the Raiders on Sunday night, and if they don’t have Talib back on Sunday Drew Brees might be able to pick apart that D.

I still don’t know what’s going on in Green Bay, but it seems to be getting worse.  I have a feeling that more than anything there are a lot of problems in the locker room.  Aaron Rodgers called out his teammates after the loss to Indy, and that can go either way.  Rodgers is the type of guy who can do that because he’s talented enough to then go out there and back it up.  But we all know he isn’t a guy who is beloved by his teammates like Manning or Favre was, or Brady is.  This team SHOULD win the NFC North with the injury problems the Vikings have, but it definitely doesn’t look good right now.

I’m kicking myself so badly about the Titans/Chargers game.  I knew that was going to be a shootout, and the over was only 47 for the game.  I bet 20 bucks on it.  20.  It’s not like I have a ton of money to bet, but I could have bet a hell of a lot harder on it than 20 freaking bucks!!!  Great game though.  Both those teams are sneaky good right now.  I think the Titans have a good chance to win the piss poor AFC South, and even though the Chargers are last in the AFC West, with the injury problems the Broncos are having right now and teams figuring out Trevor Siemian I think the Chargers have as  good of a shot as anyone to overtake the Broncos for the 6th seed in the AFC.

My Raiders won again.  7-2, but their schedule is really tough the rest of the way.  So I’d look for them to only finish up going 10-6 and getting one of the two wildcard spots rather than winning the AFC West which they currently lead.  KC is taking that.

Great Monday nighter, but I want to talk about that play at the end of the first half.  Am I the only one who thought Richard Sherman was pretty clearly looking to injure Dan Carpenter?  He wasn’t close to timing that snap, he had to have known he was way offside, he makes zero attempt to block an oncoming kick and instead goes directly for Carpenter’s knee.  Never mind how terrible the call on the field was, the NFL should look to suspend Sherman for that.  I know Carpenter dove and looked like a dip shit himself, but it was still a pretty dirty play.

I’ll end this week by going back to my week 9 picks ATS blog from Sunday morning where I guessed what the line would be for the week 10 games.  I didn’t do too bad!

Cleveland at Baltimore

Ravens -6

Missed badly.  I don’t know what it is with the Browns and myself.  I figured they’d play hard until they were done.  Well…they’re done.  Time to start betting them to be done.

Atlanta at Philadelphia

Falcons -2.5

Eagles for some reason are favoured.

Chicago at Tampa Bay

Buccaneers -6

According to a site I just googled, that has the other lines all in tact with what I’ve seen, the Bucs are only 1.5 point favourites right now.  It’s off the board right now, but that’s what they had it at.  If that is the case, bet your ass….check that…I’ll bet your ass, along with everything I got on the Bucs!  Unless I’m missing something really big here, not a freaking chance that stays anywhere near -1.5!

Denver at New Orleans

Broncos -2

Saints are favoured by 1.5, and after seeing the Saints destroy the Niners and the Broncos look pretty average on Sunday night this is not a shock.

Green Bay at Tennessee

Packers -2.5

Spot on with this one!  I’d take the Titans.

Houston at Jacksonville

Texans -1

Meh, off by .5.  I’d call that a win.

Kansas City at Carolina

Panthers -3

According to a site I just looked this up on, spot on.

L.A. at NY Jets

Jets -3

Only 2.5 right now but it’ll be at 3 soon.

Minnesota at Washington

Redskins -1.5

Off by a point, Redskins -2.5.

Miami at San Diego

Chargers -3

Off by half a point, Chargers -3.5.

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Steelers -3

Another one off by half a point, Steelers -2.5.

San Francisco at Arizona

Cardinals -13

Nailed it.

Seattle at New England

Patriots -3

The projection I found had the Pats are -7.  As of writing this it isn’t on the board yet due to the Seahawks playing last night, but I assume it’ll stay somewhere in there.  This and the Ravens/Browns pick were easily my dumbest of the week.

Cincinnati at NY Giants

Bengals -2

They have the Giants favoured by 2.5.  Bengals are going to win this one outright.

Pretty good slate of games next week.  Can’t wait to tell you all what happens in them after they’re done as if you didn’t watch them.

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