A nice little 4-2 start to 2016 for yours truly! Wasn’t looking great there for a while, but the big thanks goes out to Jack Del Rio for having the balls to call for two, and then Carr and Crabtree for executing that conversion. So I come into week two with some momentum. But I can’t lie, I don’t feel great about this week’s picks. I had to dig on these ones a little harder, and found myself making two or three bets that went against a few of my guidelines. I still feel confident about them (otherwise I wouldn’t post them), just not AS good as normal. Here we go.
Baltimore at Cleveland
So this kind of goes against my beliefs. In division, Browns looked awful in week one, Ravens got a win, so it’s an overreaction. Except in this case, I don’t think it is. The Browns are awful right now. Josh McCown was real good a few years ago in a system that made bad QB’s look average and average QB’s look good. Hugh Jackson can do that too, but the Browns have so little talent on either side of the ball that it’s going to take him a while to turn things around in Cleveland. I’m not near as high on the Ravens this season as I was last, but I do think they beat this spread.
Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Short week for the Steelers. The Bengals don’t have many weapons offensively, but AJ Green is basically two weapons in one. So he should torch the Steelers piss poor secondary just like he did Revis and the Jets. Steelers maybe win, but I like the 3 points here and keep in mind that with all the missed extra points now we are seeing WAY more one and two point loses.
San Francisco at Carolina
This one much like the first pick so goes against my line of thinking. But I really like the Panthers in this spot. Pissed off for starters about losing yet again to the Broncos. Probably should have won that game. The Niners I was higher on than most entering the season and cleaned up riding that theory on Monday. But they’re on short rest, while the Panthers are on 10 days rest. And it’s a 10 AM start for the Niners. West coast team going East is tough and an East coast team going West is tough…though not as tough. This just has Panthers blowout written all over it.
Seattle at Los Angeles
They were humiliated on Monday night. They ALWAYS play the Seahawks tough. They’re playing their first game in L.A. And Russell Wilson sounds like he’ll play, but he’s not near 100%. The Seahawks are so much the better team, but this line is a massive overreaction to what happened on Monday night. Take the Rams getting points here, taking the Seahawks feels like a sucker bet.
Atlanta at Oakland
Listening to Colin Cowherd for almost 10 years now has taught me how to go about this. He talks a lot of betting on his show. And he brings on RJ Bell from pregame.com every week to talk about the lines and where the sharp money is going. When Colin has the same bet as the sharps, I love the bet. It’s probably 75% over the years. Well this is one of those. Everyone would think “Raiders are trending up, Falcons are trending down, take the Raiders”. The Falcons can still put up points, and the Raiders are likely going to be a little flat after such a massive win last week. So I think (and frankly hope) the Raiders win this game, but I think it’ll be tight.
Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups