NFL Week 5 Picks ATS

skysports-brady-free-fans-patriots_3802429Had to happen.  Three straight winning weeks, the amazing ride had to come to an end.  2-3 last week.  I’ll take that though.  Thus far on the season I’m Mr. Consistency.  Not REAL confident in this weeks picks, but the last time I felt uneasy about my picks I was good.  Last week I felt great about my picks and had a losing week.  So there you go, f*** you life.

 

New England at Cleveland

Browns +11

Is there anyone out there other than me who has the balls to even SUGGEST that Tom Brady might be a little rusty for this one?!  He hasn’t been able to practice with his teammates since the season began.  Hasn’t been able to go to the facilities or even have contact with anyone from the team.  I know he’s going to be a little pissed, but chances are he’s a little rusty.  Also, you could see the Pats let down quite a bit here.  They have their hall of fame QB back, and they’re facing the lowly Browns.  And the Browns are playing really hard.  Hugh Jackson is a heck of a game planner.  I’m not at all suggesting the Browns could win, but to cover 11 points isn’t far fetched, and I might be the only person outside of Cleveland willing to acknowledge that.

 

NY Jets at Pittsburgh

Jets +7.5

This line feels like a massive overreaction to the Steelers blowout win combined with the Jets piss poor last two weeks.  Ryan Fitzpatrick isn’t as bad as he’s been of late, and the Jets are real solid everywhere else.  Fitzpatrick likely won’t have a rough week facing a Steelers secondary that is one of the weaker units in the league.  No Revis, no Eric Decker, so they are beat up a bit, but I just simply see them playing with some pride and keeping it close.

 

Tennessee at Miami

Titans +3.5

Why in the hell would one of these teams be favoured by more than a field goal?  Scary, because perhaps this is another Vegas bait job that I always talk about.  But the sharp guys I listen to say take the Titans here, so that’s exactly what I’ll do.  The Dolphins aren’t good at home, the Titans aren’t near as bad on the road as they are at home, and the Dolphins have had a pretty massive distraction this week with hurricane Matthew.

 

Cincinnati at Dallas

Bengals -2

Love this pick, because most of the money from the public is going on the Cowboys, while the sharps in Vegas are putting their money on the Bengals.  Cincy has a great D, vs a rookie QB with no Dez Bryant to throw to.  The Bengals will look to take away Ezekiel Elliott and make Dak Prescott beat them.

 

Buffalo at L.A.

Bills -1

The records don’t suggest this, but the Bills are the better team.  The Rams statistically aren’t as good as their record indicates.  So I like the Bills to sneak a win out here in what is essentially a pick’em game.  I’m not the biggest Bills fan, but I just feel as though the Rams have been lucky thus far and their luck is about to run out.

 

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