In my opinion today sealed it. The Indianapolis Colts will pick first overall in the 2012 NFL draft. They have sucked for Luck the best, a 19-3 beat down at the hands of the mighty Jags at home more than says that. The Rams have 2 wins now and look good, should have 3. The Dolphins now have 2 wins and look OK. The Colts look like they have it. Sure they could maybe win 1, but they still will have a 1 game lead and no other team looks like they’ll have less than 3 wins. So it’s going to be decision time in Indy….
Here is what I believe will happen. Indy will all but declare they will pick Luck, they have to. Peyton is coming off 3 neck surgeries in 15 months, the rehab from this one hasn’t gone very smoothly just like the others, he’s 35 so he might have 3 good years left…and that might be stretching it. You HAVE to pick Luck.
So with that in mind, one of 2 things will happen. Either Luck will go public by stating he doesn’t want to sit behind Peyton Manning and force the Colts hand (similar to what Eli Manning did and John Elway did), or Manning will tell the Colts that if they pick the kid they need to either trade or release him.
I hear some analysts say “Luck can sit behind Manning for 2 or 3 years like Aaron Rodgers did”…no. Luck is too good to sit behind anyone. Rodgers wasn’t ready in 05, Luck is. He will want to play now, and his camp will fully understand that if they want they can force the Colts hand.
If the Colts pick with there heads it’s no contest. They will trade/release Manning, select Andrew Luck and rebuild around him. My guess is that despite Manning’s injury issues and steep contract, someone will pony up for him (Dolphins, Redskins, Broncos). But if the Colts pick with there hearts, they will trade that pick for the world and take a 3-4 year run at a few more Super Bowls with Manning under center.
It will be a very difficult decision for the Colts to make, but it’s one that I believe they will have to make come April 2012.