Looking at it Rationally

Maybe I’m just the guy that pisses on everyone’s parade.  I don’t mean to be, but that is what this feels like.  But it’s what I believe.  And what I believe is that Tim Tebow just isn’t a good QB.  Might he become one?  He might, I don’t think he will ever be elite.  Nobody will kill himself more than Tebow to become as good as he possibly can be.  But right now he isn’t a good QB.

Look at who he has beaten.  Chumps.  The top 3 teams he has started against this season, he is 1-2 against them.  He got crushed by the Lions at home, and just today was only able to put up 23 on one of the league’s worst defenses.  I haven’t checked this (I should, but I haven’t) but I would guess this Pats D was the worst one he has seen.  I heard Phil Simms say late in the game “Tim Tebow sure has answered a lot of questions today.”  Ummm, I know Phil has forgot 5 times as much about football than I’ll ever know, but Tebow only put up 23 against a BAD defense.  That answers nothing.

The 1 win (I promise you I’m not making this up to support my argument), he beat the Jets on a short week when experts all said previous to the game it would be very difficult for the Jets to game plan for such a unique offense on a short week (it was a Thursday night game).

Another part of this is that the Denver defense has come together.  “Well why didn’t they with Orton at QB?”  Some of it is playing hard for Tebow and buying into him being the guy no doubt.  But Denver had been running a 3-4 defense and John Fox uses a 4-3.  Its going to take some time for 3-4 guys to get used to playing a 4-3, especially with no OTA’s this year and a shortened training camp.

This especially hurt a kid like Von Miller who not only is trying to figure out the ways of the league as a rookie but was a 3-4 guy (rush end).  Very different being an outside LB in a 4-3 than being a outside LB in a 3-4.

Denver has to run an option offense to get the most out of Tebow’s abilities.  Gimmick offenses have a shelf life in the NFL.  Remember the 08 Dolphins running the wild cat?  They went 11-5 and won the AFC East that season running the wild cat which the NFL had not seen in a very long time.

But the next season it didn’t work, and it was completely scrapped by most teams come the 2010 season.  Coaches get film on things, study it a ton during the offseason, and figure out how to stop them.  The option offense isn’t exactly new…in fact it’s as old as the sport.  These coaches aren’t stupid, if the option had a shelf life more of them would be using it.

Then on top of this you add in running QB’s have a history of success until coaches get film on them.  Take Vince Young.  VY has a terrific win/loss record in his NFL career.  Out of the gate he was outstanding, led Titans back from the dead in 06, to the playoffs in 07.  Yet by 08 he was benched for Kerry Collins.  Came back in 09 to once again lead the Titans back from the bottom of the league, and was benched once again in the 2010 season, cut in the offseason.

Tebow isn’t Vince Young.  He will improve as a thrower.  But if he needs to play in this kind of offense the rest of his career to just be ok, then I doubt he starts for very long in the NFL.  You have to completely overhaul your roster to find guys to fit this system, not to mention find backup QB’s that fit it which isn’t easy to do.