NFL Picks – Week 5

bill-belichick20bradyAnother big week for me in both College ball and the NFL last week.  Lost both my fantasy games, so that wasn’t cool (1st L’s on the season for both Mav & Goose AND the Zit Remedy), but I was going Scrooge McDuck in my money I’ve been winning!  Ok, so the truth is I only bet 20 bucks a game which means my total winnings on the season are like….200 bucks?  But for me that’s like 200 mil so suck it person who makes much more than me!  What really sucks, is that if we both use these picks, I have no chance of gaining.  Congrats world, you win.  Here are the bleepin picks.

 

Last week: 5-1 (4-1 ATS)

Season record (ATS): 12-9

Season record (over/under): 4-0

Season overall: 16-9

 

Buffalo at Detroit

Buffalo +7

Love the Bills here.  For starters, you keep expecting the Lions to have a fall back game like they usually do.  Calvin Johnson isn’t 100% either.  Also, the Bills DC is former Lions head coach Jim Schwartz.  Schwartz has a lot of talent on D, and he from all accounts is pretty bitter towards the Lions.  He knows all the key contributors on the Lions offense VERY well.  Finally, the Bills are turning the Kyle Orton this week.  Is he the answer?  No, but he’s likely an upgrade over E.J. Manuel right now.  The Bills will pound the ball with Jackson and Spiller, and Orton will accurately hit Watkins and Williams when he needs to for big gains.  Could be an upset here, but just play it safe and take the Bills getting a TD.

 

Chicago at Carolina

Chicago +2.5

The Bears have some injuries on the O-line which I believe is why this number is odd.  Also, the public hate Jay Cutler so when Cutler gets destroyed by the Packers, everyone thinks he now sucks.  No, he’s pretty good actually.  And the Panthers just aren’t.  Cam Newton still isn’t a guy who can drop back in the pocket and pick defenses apart.  And he can’t run right now being so beat up.  The Bears are going to win this game outright.  Take the points to play it safe but I’m really expecting a nice bounce back game for the Bears and the Panthers will continue to decline from last years performance.

 

Cleveland at Tennessee

Cleveland +2

This one scares me a little because I don’t see why the Browns would be underdogs.  The Browns have played well in 3 games this season, are coming off the bye week, and have their 3 headed monster at running back in tact again as Ben Tate will return.  But I just don’t see it with the Titans.  I love Ken Wisenhunt, but he’s got hardly anything to work with.  The Titans are good in the trenches, but so are the Browns.  They’re basically the same team, but the Browns are better at QB, running back, and on D.  Add in that they are coming off the bye, and I’m taking the Browns getting the points.  I am worried though that this is a classic case of Vegas baiting me.  I’m pretty good at sniffing those out but they might catch me sleeping here.

 

St. Louis at Philadelphia

St. Louis +7

Seen that this line is still at 7, some have it at 6.5 but I got it at 7.  Rams coming off a bye week, the Eagles O-line is beat up and they just played a very physical game in San Fran.  That is one bad combination for the Eagles.  As you may know, I’ve been sweet on the Rams for a few years now, and Austin Davis looks like he’s at least an upgrade on Sam Bradford at QB.  I won’t be shocked if the Rams pull off a shocker here.  They’re healthy, the Eagles aren’t.

 

Cincinnati at New England

Cincinnati -1.5

5/5 road teams this week.  This is scary for most people to bet.  The Pats looked so bad on Monday night.  They aren’t THAT bad.  But I think the media panic is going to continue for another week because they just played on Monday and the Bengals much like the Rams and Browns are coming off their bye.  So they’re healthy, they have wideout Marvin Jones coming back, and there is that little factor of them being the best team in the AFC right now.  Would I pick them to go to the Super Bowl?  No, but it’s not January, it’s the begining of October.  I think the Pats keep this game close, but frankly the only reason this line is as close is because of reputation.  A lot of people believe the Pats will be focused and fired up after being embarrassed and beat a Bengals team that falls on their faces in big spots.  But the Bengals are simply better.  If the Pats end up 3.5 point dogs, then take them.  But at 1.5, I like Cincy.

 

Baltimore at Indianapolis

Over 49

For the record, I don’t know if I LOVE this pick.  It was between this, and the Falcons and Giants going over 50.5.  I feel like the Colts and Ravens indoors though can put up more.  I’m confident that Andrew Luck can tear up just about any defense, he’s that good.  The Ravens have a good D, but it is getting a little overrated here.  The Panthers offense sucks, the Browns offense isn’t anything special, I guess they did a good job against the Bengals and Steelers but both games were at home.  And again, Dalton and Roethlisberger aren’t Andrew Luck.  And the Colts D can’t stop anyone, let alone a pretty good offense in the Ravens.  Not an official pick by me but I love the Ravens getting points in this game, and love the over.  Expecting something like 30-24 Ravens here.

 

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