NFL Picks – Week 9

I am just getting CRUSHED for the last 3 weeks now.  Quite the hot streak I had, followed by THIS.  At some point I’m going to crawl out of this disgusting hole I’m getting myself and all of you soupaholics into.  I know the thousands of you depend on these picks week in and week out, and I’m still over .500 overall, but it’s just not acceptable!

Last week: 2-4 (1-4 ATS)

Season record (ATS): 20-22

Season record (over/under): 5-2-1

Overall: 25-24-1

Arizona at Dallas

Arizona +3.5

So what might be the best team in football is getting 3 points facing a Cowboys team off a short week and either without their starting QB or at worst a very beat up Tony Romo?  Ok, it just flat out doesn’t make sense.  The Cardinals are a better coached team, and if the Cowboys had trouble with Redskins blitz, the Cards blitz like crazy.  I don’t need to go on, take the Cards.

San Diego at Miami

San Diego +1.5

The Chargers are coming off a Thursday nighter so it is kind of like coming off a bye week.  The Chargers are better, they’re off a bye, the Dolphins have a terrible home field advantage.  Take the better coach, QB, and D here which resides in San Diego.

Denver at New England

Denver -3

Broncos just like the Chargers are coming off that Thursday night game and have had a lot of prep time for this one.  3.5 I would take the Pats.  At 3, it’s likely at worse a push.  I do know the Vegas sharps like the Pats for all the history here and the fact that the weather could play a factor in this one.  But as Colin Cowherd pointed out on his show yesterday, the Broncos have crushed really good teams like the Chargers, Niners, Colts, and Cards.  All at home I know, but they crushed them.  The Pats, while they look better have been beating up on Buffalo, Cincy who was in decline, and the Jets.  And they BARELY beat the Jets.  I think the Broncos just have it all going on right now, they’re the best team in football and they won’t forget how they gave away this game last year.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh

Baltimore -1

You know I’ve had a brutal time picking the Ravens this season.  I just can’t get a grasp on this team.  -1 favorites against the Bengals last week felt like a lock to me and they gave it away.  Week 1 against the Bengals felt like a lock to me and they fell on their faces.  Against the Colts the offense was stiffled against a below average D.  They just aren’t delivering when I take them.  But I’m going back to the well 1 more time this week.  This is the Steelers, it’s Sunday Night Football, it’s as big as it can get this time of year.  And the Steelers won’t do what they did last week against the Colts.  Roethlisberger was incredible, but it is a career day for a reason….it happens once in a career.

Indianapolis at NY Giants

NY +3.5

Coming off a bye, at home, against a dome team that is sketchy on the road.  I’ll take the Giants and smile all the way home thank you kindly.  The Giants are inconsistent I realize this, but you have to like them a lot in this spot.  And I’m the biggest Andrew Luck guy you’ll find, but he’s just not that great on the road.  Giants could win this game outright as they battle for their playoff lives.

San Diego at Miami

Over 45

So this has rebounded a bit after 2 loses in a row.  I was right last week and pushed the week before.  2 good QB’s going at it here in Rivers and Tannehill, and while both can play D, neither team has a D that is anything to be scared.  Less than 50 points with 2 good QB’s in good weather conditions, I like it!

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