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NFL Week 14 Hot Takes

I started to write this late Sunday afternoon, this is what I had:

“I have to start with Jeff Fisher and the Rams, whom I’ve been on an island standing up for all season.  But yesterday was rock bottom, and while I won’t move off my belief that Fisher is a good head coach, it just clearly isn’t going to work there and a change is needed.  If they want to salvage the Jared Goff trade/pick, a house cleaning is needed in that front office and on the sidelines.  It’s a GREAT gig.  They’re moving into a new stadium in two more seasons, they have a potential Pro Bowl QB in Goff (yes, I’m not bailing on him after 5 FREAKING GAMES!!!), Pro Bowl RB in Todd Gurley, they have a lot of great pieces on D, and oh yeah…it’s L.A.  I don’t know if he is interested in leaving his post in the MNF booth, but Jon Gruden would be absolutely perfect for the job.  They need a guy who is going to help develop Goff and get this offense going.”

 

The right move was made by Rams ownership.  It doesn’t sound like Les Snead is safe either.  Josh McDaniels is the name a lot of people are tossing around, and I like that idea.  I question whether or not McDaniels can be a great head coach, but the fit might be good enough to make this a playoff team.  He would get that offense pointed in the right direction.  They desperately need to build up that offensive line.  With good protection, the talent they have at WR specifically is good enough that Goff could do some damage.  But more so, with a good O-line, not only does that allow Goff to make some throws, but Todd Gurley could then get it going again.  It isn’t a big fix, they just need the right people running things in L.A.

 

KC beat Oakland on Thursday, and as much as I didn’t like it I’ve been on that since day one of the season.  You can read literally anything I’ve wrote from the start of the season on, I have not moved off that point.  Oakland is making the playoffs, KC is winning the division.  Come playoff time I’ll take the Raiders because I’ll take Derek Carr all day over Alex Smith, but over 16 games the Chiefs are the better team.

 

Rex Ryan might get fired?  Tyrod Taylor isn’t the answer for the Bills at QB?!  Right.  Did the Pegula’s actually need two seasons to figure this shit out?!?  Rex isn’t anything of a good coach.  Taylor is a solid backup to have but he is the typical guy who once coaches have film on he gets exposed.  Perhaps with the right coach he could get to a Alex Smith “type” level, but he’s not a franchise QB.  It’s rebuilding time once again for the Bills as they close in on 20 years without seeing the playoffs.  I feel awful for that fan base.  Yes, THAT fan base who seem to have an insane amount of complete dip shits.  Dip shits, but they deserve a lot better.

 

Cleveland is going 0-16 now for sure.  I can’t believe I bet them AGAIN.  Not only does this team not win, they never even beat the spread!  The Bengals are terrible, and they rolled the Browns.  No words have yet to be invented to describe the Browns.  But I do believe this organization has a great chance to finally move forward believe it or not.  I think Hue Jackson is a good coach, they look like they will have not only the top pick but another top 10 pick in the draft, there are some pretty good QB’s in this year’s draft including Ohio born Mitch Trubisky.  The draft stuff isn’t even worth looking at until March or so once the combine and pro day’s have commenced and the coaches and GM’s start looking at the film on these kids, but point is this could be the draft that finally turns the Browns around.

 

I think it’s safe to say the Packers are now back.  That was pretty impressive.  I know I had that game, and made the point that the weather specifically could hurt the Seahawks, but that was total domination by the Packers.  For their WR’s to light up the Seahawks secondary like that was something (mind you, no Earl Thomas, but still).   There is very little room for error for the Packers.  Two games back of Detroit in the NFC North, but if they can makeup one game by week 17 it’ll be a showdown in Motown for the NFC North.  Win and you’re in.  I like both teams, I love great football, and I’m really pulling for that scenario.  With Matt Stafford now playing hurt, it’s not far fetched at all.

 

I know, I know, I’ve been calling the Giants frauds and yet they’ve now knocked off the Cowboys twice this season.  The D is clearly elite, maybe I’ll retract calling them frauds, but I still don’t believe in this Giants team.  What did Dallas have to play for?!  With the Seahawks losing the Cowboys have a very comfortable lead for home field in the NFC, the NFC East crown, it just was a nothing game for the Cowboys.  Yet the Giants still only beat them 10-7.  To me, they still have to prove it.

 

Well my picks weren’t great this week.  0-2 on the over/under’s.  But I did have a nice little 3-2 week ATS.  Let’s see how I did guessing the lines.  Again, the goal is to be within a point.

 

L.A. at Seattle -7.5

This is maybe the furthest I’ve been off on these yet.  Figured on a short week, the Rams have the Seahawks number, it wouldn’t be THAT big.  Wrong.  WRONG!  Seattle -14.5.

 

Miami -3.5 at NY Jets

Dolphins are only favored by 2.5.  I guess I’m right, but I like that for Miami because I don’t think Matt Moore is THAT far off Ryan Tannehill.

 

Green Bay -7 at Chicago

Another one right, as the Pack are favored by 6.5.  The Bears are playing everyone tough these days, might have to take them if this line does in fact get to Packers -7.

 

Cleveland at Buffalo -7.5

Bills are favored by 10.5, and I don’t blame Vegas one bit here.  As I said earlier, the Browns can’t beat the spread let alone a team!  Unreal, because the Bills can’t win right now either, yet they’re favored by 10.5.

 

Philadelphia at Baltimore -6.5

Ravens are -6.  I’m writing this as the Monday nighter is being played (16-3 at the half for the Pats), so it’s not on the board right now but that’s what it’s projected to be.

 

Tennessee at Kansas City -6.5

Another win as the Chiefs are favored by 6.

 

Pittsburgh -6 at Cincinnati

Steelers are only favored by 3.5?!  I think I’ll lay some coin on the Steelers here, even if A.J. Green is back.

 

Detroit at NY Giants -3

No surprise that with Stafford injured and the Giants beating the Cowboys on Sunday night, Giants -4.5.

 

Indianapolis at Minnesota -1.5

Another big miss by me here.  I assumed the Colts would beat the Texans, they got humiliated at home, so now the Vikings are favored by 4.

 

Jacksonville at Houston -4.5

Of course that Colt/Texans game messed with this line too as the Texans are favored by 6.

 

New Orleans at Arizona -2.5

Spot on.

 

San Francisco at Atlanta -9.5

Another massive miss by me here, as the Falcons are -14.

 

Oakland -1 at San Diego

Vegas didn’t do what I thought they might do, which was make this a bait game.  Raiders -3, I’d take the Chargers.  Potentially the last game for the Raiders in San Diego, this is the Chargers Super Bowl.

 

New England -3 at Denver

Spot on from what I found, though again like the Ravens this game isn’t on the board yet on Sports Interaction.

 

Tampa Bay at Dallas -6.5

Cowboys -7 so a win here.

 

Carolina at Washington -3

Wow, Redskins by 5.  Looks like Vegas is finally figuring the Panthers out.  Can’t wait to see what the over is in this one.  So this is my first losing week guessing the lines.  7/16.  Can’t win’em all.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 14 Picks ATS

Not happy.  Not happy at all!  First of all, this weather is just horrific.  It’s such a cop out topic, but seriously the weather is all that’s on my mind right now.  It’s so cold I don’t want to do anything but crank the heat and stay inside.  Put on top of that, the Oilers aren’t playing well, speculation has begun that the Jays front office would prefer to not do anything so they’re setup to sell off everyone at next year’s trade deadline, and a 1-4 performance with my picks last Sunday.  Do you want to know the real truth about Christmas kids?  When you become an adult, December goes from amazing to disgusting!  Bah humbug…or whatever they said in the 20’s (I have to get in saying the 20’s as much as possible now because in 3 years we’ll have to say whether that’s the 1920’s or the 2020’s).  1-4 last week, 33-27-6 on the season.

 

Arizona at Miami

Dolphins +2

The Dolphins should not be underdogs in this game.  It started that way.  Then all the money, sharp and public went on the Cardinals.  I’m in the vast minority on this that Vegas knew something nobody else did.  Because from a public standpoint they’d still view the Cards as a great team who had a tough season, and the Dolphins as a shitty team who had a lucky season.  Coming off what was by far their worst performance of the season, the Dolphins will be as desperate of a team as you’ll find.  Also what I hear being left out on this…while it’s not a PST team playing at 10 AM, it is a MST team playing at 11 AM.  I believe the Dolphins win a tight, low scoring game outright at home.

 

Cincinnati at Cleveland

Browns +6

Don’t get cute here, just take the 6 points, but I’m personally taking the Browns to win outright.  At home, RGIII is back at QB, the Bengals suck, the Browns are off a bye, this game is nothing to the Bengals, this game is everything to the Browns who if they don’t win here they likely aren’t winning in 2016.  As if all that wasn’t enough, RJ Bell had stats this week that said this is almost a lock.  The favorite in this series in the last 19 games has covered only 5 times.  Also, any team that has been winless after week 8 since 1990 has gone 50-22-3 ATS.  Finally, any winless team of 0-5 or worse playing on extra rest (in this case, off a bye) have gone 23-5-1 ATS.  The Browns at +6 is about as safe of a bet as you’ll ever find.

 

Washington at Philadelphia

Redskins -2.5

So I’ll be honest, I don’t love this bet.  In division, Eagles are going to be desperate, I just don’t have a great feeling on this one.  But I have to pick 5 games, and this one SHOULD be a safe bet.  Redskins I view as one of the top teams in the NFC, and the Eagles have done nothing but trend down since their week 3 blowout win over the Steelers.  So I’ll take the Redskins here to win by a field goal, but just don’t bet this one hard.

 

Seattle at Green Bay

Packers +3

This one is a little safer than the Redskins bet.  I still don’t really trust the Packers right now, but they’re a terrific late season team.  This team in the last 15 seasons or so have been amazing in December.  Plus the Seahawks aren’t really a snow team.  They won in the snow last year in Minnesota, but they needed Blair Walsh to have one of the worst misses of all time to get the win.  They do play in bad weather a lot this time of year, but not in this kind of cold and not the snow.  I do think the Seahawks win, but I believe it’ll be a really tight game.

 

Dallas at NY Giants

Cowboys -3.5

I basically say it in everything I write on the NFL these days, I just think the Giants are total frauds.  I keep hearing people say “this is the type of Giants team that wins the Super Bowl”.  No!  It’s nothing like those Giants teams!  Those Giants teams were better than their record suggested, this team is much worse!  I do worry a bit here as to how Dak Prescott will do if the weather plays a factor, but as dominant as the Cowboys have been to this point, this team is built for December/January football.  They keep your D on the field and beat you up with their O-line.  That formula works great at anytime of the year, but is a nightmare when the weather gets bad.

 

Over/Under

1-1 last week (again), 6-4 on the season.

 

San Diego at Carolina

Over 49

Cam Newton vs Philip Rivers, both teams have just ok defenses.  I’d trust the Panthers D a little more if Luke Kuechly were healthy, but he isn’t.  So Newton coming off being humiliated in more ways than one on national TV will be hot, and Rivers has just quietly been one of the best in the league this season.  I believe this will be the highest scoring game of the week.

 

Dallas at NY Giants

Over 47

Doesn’t really makes sense if you consider their week one matchup was 20-19, and that was indoors in September.  Outdoors in December I have it going over?!  Well the Cowboys now are a MUCH more confident team than the Cowboys were back then.  Counter that with the fact I don’t like any of the Cowboys DB’s to lock down ODB, so he may go off in this one.  The Cowboys secondary is real good, probably the only strength that defense has, but I still believe the Giants can exploit them and make this a 31-24 type game.

 

Guessing the Lines (week 15)

9/16 last week, 44/76 on the season.  The goal is to be within a point of the line.

 

L.A. at Seattle -7.5

 

Miami -3.5 at NY Jets

 

Green Bay -7 at Chicago

 

Cleveland at Buffalo -7.5

 

Philadelphia at Baltimore -6.5

 

Tennessee at Kansas City -6.5

 

Pittsburgh -6 at Cincinnati

 

Detroit at NY Giants -3

 

Indianapolis at Minnesota -1.5

 

Jacksonville at Houston -4.5

 

New Orleans at Arizona -2.5

 

San Francisco at Atlanta -9.5

 

Oakland -1 at San Diego

(the Raiders might get a bigger number than this, but I’m thinking this might be a Vegas bait because the Chargers are winning this game)

 

New England -3 at Denver

 

Tampa Bay at Dallas -6.5

 

Carolina at Washington -3

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 13 Hot Takes

wentzLast week I decided to give the CFL some love in this write up and take a few paragraphs to talk about how tremendous the Grey Cup was.  So I guess this week I should discuss how great the football is in MLS between Toronto and Montreal.  Yep, I should.  Problem is, I don’t talk about the ECHL, don’t talk AA baseball, don’t talk about the China league in basketball.  My point here is that why in the hell do Toronto sports fans claim they won’t embrace the CFL because “it isn’t big time” yet they flock to watch the MLS?!  Let’s be honest about this, Toronto….you’re wannabe Americans and the CFL would thrive without the Argos just like the NFL did when fans in L.A. thought they were too sweet for that league.

 

Ok, so that had nothing to do with the NFL, but I had to get that shot off before the clock ran out.  Onto the week 13…action?

 

Could any game have gone less like I believed it would than the Miami/Baltimore game?!  The Dolphins couldn’t have laid more of an egg.  You can say the Ravens are just that good, but I STILL, yes…STILL refuse to believe they’re anything but frauds, simply because their offense hasn’t been good all season, and now they’re dominating one of the top defenses in the league?!  No.  The Dolphins just simply didn’t bother to show up, and when you’ve been as down for as long as the Dolphins have you just can’t take anyone lightly.  Had the Dolphins +3.5, got humiliated.  For once in my over/under’s I took the under on this game, and got humiliated.  Hey Miami, f*** you.

 

Man, my picks were just horrendous.  1-4, only 1-1 in the over/under’s.  It’s such a piss of when you know you’re picking good and shitty weeks like this happen.  And it’s really been all or nothing of late.  In the last seven weeks, I’ve either only lost once or less, or only won once or less.  This week though was just fucked right from the start, so fucked that I’m not bothering to sensor myself.  Colin Cowherd said it on his show on Friday, the lines were just really tricky for whatever reason.  Probably wasn’t a good sign in hindsight that I nailed so many of the lines, because if I nail the lines then it’s tough to decide one way or another where to go.  Anyway, I’m just talking to myself at this point.

 

How good is this game going to be on Thursday between the Chiefs and Raiders?!  Chiefs win a massive game in Atlanta, and the Raiders made it look easy coming back from a 15 point deficit against the Bills.  I’ve said all season, the Chiefs win that division and feel great about that coming into this game.  But despite their age, I’d fear the Raiders a little more come playoff time.  Better QB, a lot of playmakers on both sides of the ball (especially if they get a rejuvenated Aldon Smith back), and that offensive line…while it’s not what the Cowboys have, it’s damn good and can beat up on any D-line in the league.

 

Remember when the Rams were raked over the coals for not playing Jared Goff because Carson Wentz was so amazing and he started day one in Philly?!  Remember when I was saying that meant nothing?!  How much better has Wentz looked than Goff since Goff has been starting?  Hasn’t?  At all?  There was a guy once upon a time named Rick Mirer.  And in the 1993 NFL draft, the New England Patriots had a tough choice to make between Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer.  The Pats took Bledsoe, and out of the gate everyone was killing them for taking Bledsoe as he struggled and Mirer looked great.  Then teams got film on Mirer.  All Rick Mirer did from about the sixth game of his rookie season on was digress.  Probably shouldn’t have been starting.  I’m not saying that is going to be Carson Wentz, but since week 3 against Pittsburgh, all he’s done is digress.  Goff has literally nothing around him other than Todd Gurley and that O-line is so bad that neither guy has a chance to do anything.  But let this be a lesson to you all…just because someone is starting doesn’t mean they’re good!  People should know this lesson well by now!

 

That was a damn impressive win by the Lions in New Orleans.  They’re very much so in the driver seat in the NFC North, although with the Packers now having won back to back they aren’t out of the woods just yet.  The Pack have a win against them already, so if they win in Detroit in the final week of the season, they’d have the tie breaker.  But Stafford has been better than Rodgers, Theo Reddick is better than anything the Packers can scrap together at RB, and the Lions have the better D.  A.K.A. I’d be shocked if the Lions didn’t win the NFC North at this point.

 

The Steelers aren’t great (yet), but the Giants are frauds and I won’t move off that point.  Lightest game left on their schedule is the Eagles (I originally believed it was the Lions, but the Eagles have completely fallen apart), and the Eagles LOVE to spoil shit for the Giants.  I just don’t see them making the playoffs.

 

Cam Newton was benched and then crushed in Seattle.  YEP.  I don’t get a lot right, but that guy is the easiest call in the NFL right now.  He gets touched, he folds.  He doesn’t, he’s an all time great.

 

For weeks now I’ve been calling the Titans to take the AFC South.  They may, but I have to admit the Colts look like they’re starting to come on as long as Andrew Luck is out there.  Say what you will about how awful the Jets season has been, that D-line is one of the best in football and the Colts O-line held them in check.  The last month or so it’s felt like a different Colts team.  It’s not like they’ll go to the Super Bowl or anything, but they definitely have a shot to win that pathetic division.

 

Finally, the lines.  Maybe my favorite thing to now talk about, likely because it’s the only thing I seem to get right these days!  I aim to be within a point, let’s see how it went.

 

Oakland at Kansas City -2.5

Half a point off, Chiefs by 3, looks to be moving to 3.5.  I can’t stress enough how great of a game this is going to be!  Essentially for the division crown at this point.

 

Pittsburgh -3 at Buffalo

Steelers only favored by 2.  Little surprised, but then again the Bills will be desperate and the Steelers can get sleepy.

 

Denver -1.5 at Tennessee

Wow, Titans are favored by 1.  I can’t see the public laying off taking the Broncos at that number, although it is off the board right now (I’m guessing waiting on Trevor Siemian’s status).

 

Washington at Philadelphia -2

Not shocked after that humiliation by the Eagles in Cincy that this is now the Redskins favored by a point.  Anything less than 3 points, take the Redskins.

 

Arizona -1.5 at Miami

BAIT!!!  Dolphins favored by 2, makes little-no sense with the Dolphins being humiliated and the Cards coming off a win.  Don’t fall for it, take the Dolphins.

 

Minnesota -2.5 at Jacksonville

Vikings by 3.5, so it’s a win for me, but I don’t know how you could trust the Vikings by 3.5 against anyone at this point, especially on the road.

 

Houston at Indianapolis -3.5

I got it, but Indy is -4.5.  I’m a little surprised it’s that high, but it was an impressive showing last night despite how poorly the Jets have been this season.

 

San Diego at Carolina -3

A pick’em!  Oh how the mighty have fallen!  QB frontrunner though will be all about putting up big numbers after being embarrassed on Sunday night.

 

Cincinnati -3.5 at Cleveland

Cincy -5.5.  I didn’t realize when looking at who the Browns had left two weeks ago that Cincy at home was still on the schedule.  THIS could be their last chance at 1-15.

 

Chicago at Detroit -6.5

Lions by 8, and it’s not a surprise with how great they were in New Orleans.  I’d take the Bears though.  Lions primed for a letdown, the Bears playing for jobs.

 

NY Jets -3 at San Francisco

San Fran by a point right now.  Not a big shocker after the Jets got humiliated by the Colts last night.  Short rest this week, have to go cross country, the Niners won’t have to play in a freaking blizzard this week, makes sense.

 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay -2.5

Bucs by 2.5 it is!  This is a massive game in the NFC South, Saints have to have this one.

 

Atlanta -6 at Los Angeles

Falcons by 6 it is!  They’re pretty good, and the Rams are not.

 

Seattle -3 at Green Bay

Seahawks by 3 it is!  Are the Packers back?  Are the Seahawks back?  Interesting matchup.

 

Dallas -2.5 at NY Giants

Cowboys by 3, moving soon to 3.5.  The Giants are frauds, I cant stress that enough.  Cowboys all but wrap up the division with a win here.

 

Baltimore at New England -7.5

Another one spot freaking on!  The line is moving towards Pats by 7.  If it gets to 6.5, I’d bet the Pats pretty hard.  So that’s 9/16 on the week.  I have yet to go under .500 on these, although after going 1-4 with my picks ATS this week that shows this means nothing.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 13 Picks ATS

hi-res-2056683bef9a0afc67053b5463bdab7e_crop_northHow in the freaking hell do you have three games push in a week?!  Having any game push is pretty rare.  But to have three in the same week…I likely won’t ever do that again.  Good news is that I went undefeated last week!  Bad news is I only won two of the five games!  Now 32-23-6 on the season.

 

Los Angeles at New England

Rams +13.5

It’s just far too many points.  Doesn’t mean the Pats can’t win this one by 14, but the Rams D is coming off a humiliating performance, Brady is dinged up, the Pats don’t have Gronk so other playmakers now need to be worked into the offense, and the Pats D isn’t so good that Jared Goff can’t do some damage against them.  Smart money here is on the Rams.

 

Miami at Baltimore

Dolphins +3.5

I’ve been loving the Dolphins the last month or so, and I have not been shy to say I think the Ravens aren’t as good as their record and are nowhere near worthy of being a division leading team.  3.5 is a gift, as I strongly believe the Dolphins will take this one outright.

 

San Francisco at Chicago

49ers -2

What a terrible game this is going to be, I know.  Most of you won’t want to put money on it because of that, but I just think the 49ers at less than a field goal is a really smart bet.  I’m not a Colin Kaepernick fan at all, but he’s been playing better and better every week.  It’s not just him either, this Niners team is really playing hard.  Then on the other side you have a Bears team just completely buried by injuries.  I like the Niners to win this outright, so anything less than a field goal is fine with me.

 

Buffalo at Oakland

Bills +3

I like this bet a lot, mainly because every Raiders game is tight!  So you can pretty much take the underdog in the game involving the Raiders this season, and you’ll win money!  I’m not sure what the numbers are on that, but I’ve bet the Raider games all season and crushed it with them.  If by chance this moves to 3.5, I love the Bills.  If it goes to 2.5, the Raiders then would be the smart money.

 

Carolina at Seattle

Seahawks -7

This matchup is all kinds of wrong for the Panthers.  QB frontrunner doesn’t like it when things get tough, and in Seattle, against that D, it’ll be a REALLY tough night for him, so he’ll likely fold.  I am a little hesitant in saying that because the Panthers always play the Seahawks tough, even when the Seahawks were in their Super Bowl years and the Panthers were still emerging.  But Newton never faced the Seahawks when things were going anywhere near as poorly as they are right now for the Panthers.  It’s a big number, but I’m willing to eat it here.

 

Over/Under

1-1 last week, 5-3 on the season.

 

Miami at Baltimore

Under 41

FINALLY a pick an under!  This game features two elite defenses, and two QB’s who I don’t believe are capable of overcoming elite defenses.  41 points?  I see something like 17-14, 20-17…tops.

 

Buffalo at Oakland

Over 49

Just like last week, I don’t know why the Raiders aren’t getting more love on the over/under’s.  They’re going to put up big points on just about anyone, especially at home, and the Bills…while I don’t love Tyrod Taylor, he’s good enough and unique enough to give the Raiders defense fits.

 

Guessing the Lines (week 14)

12/16 last week, 35/60 on the season.  The goal is to be within a point of the line.

 

Oakland at Kansas City -2.5

 

Pittsburgh -3 at Buffalo

 

Denver -1.5 at Tennessee

 

Washington at Philadelphia -2

 

Arizona -1.5 at Miami

 

Minnesota -2.5 at Jacksonville

 

Houston at Indianapolis -3.5

 

San Diego at Carolina -3

 

Cincinnati -3.5 at Cleveland

 

Chicago at Detroit -6.5

 

NY Jets -3 at San Francisco

 

New Orleans at Tampa Bay -2.5

 

Atlanta -6 at Los Angeles

 

Seattle -3 at Green Bay

 

Dallas -2.5 at NY Giants

 

Baltimore at New England -7.5

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 12 Hot Takes

drewbreeslosangelesramsvneworleansrcx67ezkkyglWELP…I could cry.  Since Sunday night, I could cry.  I’ve been feeling it lately betting football, so I decided to make a big bet.  Not in terms of money (although, 60 bucks is a lot more than the usually gutless 10-20 I lay on games), but in terms of odds.  If I won the bet, 10 grand.  That went out the window thanks to the Dolphins not stopping the 49ers on a 4th and freaking 15!!  How do you not stop a team to close out a game when it’s 4th and 15?!?  They didn’t, but I could still win pretty big because that game was only a push, not a loss.  I still had 5200 I could pull in, nice little Christmas gift.  It won…had the Calgary Stampeders simply won.  The biggest underdog that I bet against in the entire bet, 10 games, was the one that beat me and cost me 5200.  It sucks knowing I was SO close to winning 10 grand, but it REALLY sucks that I got down to three games to go and the virtual guarantee cost me 5200.

 

I know this is NFL hot takes, but let’s hit on the Grey Cup for a minute here because I don’t talk much CFL and the league deserves more exposure and should get it from knobs like myself.

 

20 years ago I watched one of the best Grey Cup’s of all time between the Esks and Argos in a blizzard.  I remember being at my Grandma’s watching the 89 Grey Cup between the Riders and Ti-Cats, but I didn’t watch any of the game.  I was probably too concerned with getting a glass of Beep and getting her to make me some Zoodles…loved me some Zoodles!  That was the best Grey Cup of all time, but the 96 Grey Cup was maybe the most important of all time.  Because in 96, there was serious talk about the league surviving.  Fast forward to 2016, and the league isn’t in THAT kind of trouble, but I do fear it is in trouble.

 

With the country being so nuts about the Jays right now, and the NFL now being so accessible to us, the CFL faces a major uphill battle.  And it doesn’t help that currently it’s most vital markets are in down swings.  Saskatchewan I view as vital because of how big their fans make the league feel.  Toronto is vital because of how big they can make the rest of the league feel, and to a lesser extent Montreal.  It’s not a good scenario for the league right now, and I hardly hear any talk about the league amongst people I know.

 

So with all that being said, what a perfect time to get maybe the story of the year with 41 year old Henry Burris and the Redblacks upsetting one of the best regular season teams in CFL history.  The game literally had it all and while it wasn’t one of the best played games in CFL history, it may have been the most exciting.  It couldn’t have come at a better time for the league, and I really hope this is the beginning of a turnaround.  I would love to see them do some things with the salary cap to bring in more star power, but that’s a discussion for another day.

 

The Detroit Lions are going to win the NFC North ladies and gentlemen.  It’s going to essentially be by default, but they are going to win it.  It’s basically Matt Stafford on offense, and then a defense that stops teams JUST enough for Stafford to lead them on a game winning drive late, just like he did against the Vikings on Thanksgiving.  Other than that game there wasn’t much to add about the Thanksgiving day games.  Cowboys/Redskins was great, but nothing unexpected, and then the Colts/Steelers was a dud once we found out Andrew Luck couldn’t go.

 

What a difference a year has made for the Arizona Cardinals.  Most people picked them to go to the Super Bowl.  They aren’t going to the Super Bowl, nor are they going to the playoffs.  What’s really shocking is their defense is number 1 in the league in YPG.  And obviously they weren’t that good on Sunday.  But Carson Palmer has gotten really old, really fast.  I don’t know if it’s the playoff loss to the Panthers that’s still haunting him or if he’s just fallen off a cliff.  I just know that they’re done.  If you look at their remaining schedule, they’ll be lucky to go 2-2 in their next 4, which would put them at 6-8-1 going into their final game in L.A.  Done.

 

I still see the Ravens as a TOTAL fraud despite being 6-5 and leading the NFC North.  They don’t have one decent win under their belts.  They beat the Steelers I guess, but that was with the Steelers starting a still very beat up Ben Roethlisberger.  And even that game they did most of their scoring on special teams.  If they beat the Dolphins Sunday, it’ll be their most impressive win of the season.  This team has a good D, but nothing else.  They’ve just got insanely lucky thus far with their schedule.  Watch for them to drop three of their next four.

 

The NFC version of the Ravens is the Giants.  I won’t go on and on about them again this week, but just keep in mind what I said last week:

I would not be shocked if the Giants lost their final five games of the season.  The lightest of their final five is the 6-4 Lions at home.

 

Man, nobody is talking about them, but the Saints…at least offensively…have been back in full force this season!  Brees just has too many weapons to work with, and their O-line is playing really solid.  Only 5-6, but they got a massive game in two weeks in Tampa, then they get Tampa at home again in week 16.  Their chances aren’t great to make the playoffs, but they aren’t dead yet.

 

Of course they have to win those games against Tampa, who are coming off win’s at Arrowhead against KC, and now at home against the Seahawks, and the Bucs are starting to look like the team I’ve been expecting them to be.  It seems like every year I have the Bucs to make this massive improvement and at least challenge for the NFC South.  Well now they’re finally doing it.  Jameis Winston is coming along nicely (although as Johnny Manziel would tell you, having Mike Evans to simply throw it up to is a nice luxury to have, most underrated WR in the league), their D is really solid, and with Doug Martin healthy their running game is pretty good.  Those will be a couple of sneaky big games between the Bucs and Saints coming up.

 

What a game that was in Oakland.  Again, I still don’t see the Raiders winning the AFC West, but they’ll be a big threat to anyone in the playoffs.  I’ll also go out on a limb (hot take, HOT TAKE!!!) and say they’ll be Super Bowl favorites heading into next season.

 

I don’t know if what I just watched in Philly was good from the Packers, or bad from the Eagles.  One thing I’m pretty certain about is Carson Wentz has digressed a lot since week 3.  Member that (oh and for all you fake South Park fans, at least get the f***in joke right when you reference it, they’re “Member berries”, not “Remember berries”)?  Wentz was the next Peyton Manning!  How could the Rams be so stupid to take Goff over Wentz?!  The hot take community was all about that one.  Well now, Goff looks ok and should get better, and Wentz is getting worse.  There is a long way to go in both these kids careers, let’s just settle the f*** down on both of them.

 

I have to hit on my picks ATS.  I went undefeated!  How sweet is that?!  Well, not too sweet, because I only won two games?!?!?!?!  2-0-3.  Three freaking pushes!  Better than loses, but that’s just annoying.

 

Speaking of betting, as has now become the way I end this piece, here’s a look at how I did predicting the betting lines for the upcoming week 13 games.

 

Dallas -3.5 at Minnesota

Spot on.

 

Kansas City at Atlanta -3

Falcons are -4, so that’s another win.

 

Detroit at New Orleans – 2.5

Ouch!  Up to -5.5 for the Saints and climbing.  Public must be on the Saints hard after seeing them put 49 on the Rams.

 

Los Angeles at New England -11

Another loss as the Pats are -13.5.

 

Denver -6 at Jacksonville

Back in the win column, though the Broncos are only favored by 5.

 

Houston at Green Bay -3.5

Apparently opened at this, now at 4.5.  Still a win.

 

Philadelphia -1.5 at Cincinnati

Even after the loss, Eagles are favored by 1.  Pretty surprised at this, likely would take the Bengals with how Wentz is trending.

 

Miami at Baltimore -2.5

Another one within a point as the Ravens are favored by 3.5, and as I said when I predicted this line…take the Dolphins!!

 

San Francisco at Chicago -2

Bears by 2.5, and climbing.  The 49ers are winning this one outright.

 

Buffalo at Oakland -3.5

Raiders only by 3.  Pretty surprising to me as I thought if anything they would be favored by 4 or 5.  Early money has gone on the Raiders though so this will move that way.

 

NY Giants at Pittsburgh -6

Steelers by 5.5.  I’m terrified to bet the Giants right now, and the Steelers are far from safe to bet as well, but my inclination would be to take the Steelers here.  Again, I just think the Giants are such a fraud, so perhaps Vegas is trying to bait the public into taking the Giants?

 

Washington at Arizona -2.5

Bingo, Cards by 2.5.

 

Tampa Bay at San Diego -3.5

Bingo, Super Chargers by 3.5.

 

Carolina at Seattle -6.5

Was bingo earlier in the day, Seahawks now up to 7 point favorites.  A win, but I enjoy saying bingo.

 

Indianapolis -2 at NY Jets (this is IF Andrew Luck is playing)

Damn.  Read that it opened at the Colts -2.5, but is now a pick’em.  Still, 12/16 within a point.  Not to brag, but DAMN I’m good at this!

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 12 Picks ATS

qfcrqzlkBack on track baby!  So as I said in my “hot takes”, if you look at four of my last six weeks against the spread, I’m a ridiculous 15-4-1!  Unfortunately in the two weeks previous to last, I was 1-8-1.  I don’t get it.  It’s like you’re dominating time of possession, dominating in total yards, yet thanks to a tipped pass and two freak fumbles you’re only leading by a field goal.  I’ve been picking real good this season, but for whatever reason I went ice cold for two weeks.  Now 30-23-3 on the season.

 

San Diego at Houston

Chargers -2.5

I don’t particularly LOVE this bet, but I do like it.  Make of that what you will.  Chargers are coming off a bye, Texans are on a short week so that’s a pretty big positive right there.  I also know the Chargers are the better team.  And being less than a field goal spread, that’s where I simply like to go with the favorite.  The Texans have given me a lot of scares this season due to being better than I give them credit for, but I still feel confident enough in the Chargers here to take them at -2.5.  -3 or -3.5, you should think about taking the Texans.

 

San Francisco at Miami

Dolphins -7

It’s a big number, but you need to swallow the points here.  First off…one of my favorites…yes I spell like an American when I’m talking NFL….West coast team playing a 10 AM PST game.  Another thing I like, the Dolphins are emerging as a really good team under Adam Gase.  Another thing I like, the 49ers are terrible.  That’s as black and white as I can get with this one.  49ers will have trouble scoring, Dolphins won’t, as I said off the top swallow the points.

 

Tennessee at Chicago

Titans -6

Another big number here.  Titans in Chicago, normally you wouldn’t take the Titans by 6 over anyone on the road.  But this Titans squad is pretty good.  I believe this team is winning the AFC South.  And how are the Bears going to put up points?  I love Jordan Howard, but that is literally all they have on offense.  They have a solid defense (10th in the NFL in YPG), but they aren’t shutting out Mariota, and he doesn’t turn the ball over.  So while I don’t expect a lot of points going on the board, I do expect the Titans to win this one comfortably.

 

Carolina at Oakland

Panthers +3

This is a pretty big QB matchup, as it could pit the reigning MVP against the future MVP.  Carolina is winning this one outright, but even at +3 it’s even money right now.  Luke Kuechly is a big absence for the Panthers without a doubt.  But that D is still solid.  I don’t care what the numbers will say for this season as a whole, we all know they’re fully capable of shutting down anyone when they’re on.  Also, the Raiders D won’t give Newton any problems, and Mr. Frontrunner can light a team the f*** up when nobody is raining on his parade.  I love the Panthers here, and I don’t think I’m done talking about betting this game…

 

Kansas City at Denver

Chiefs +3.5

The Broncos are off a bye.  The Broncos are at home.  I love the Chiefs here.  First of all, more than a field goal is always nice in a game that’s essentially a pick’em.  Also, I really believe the Chiefs are the better team.  The more film coaches get on Trevor Siemian, the worse he gets.  That’s not a coincidence.  Aqib Talib is back for the Broncos and Jeremy Maclin is out for the Chiefs, but the problem there is the Chiefs don’t use their WR’s a ton anyway.  I’d expect a very ugly Sunday night game with it coming down to the wire.

 

Over/Under

1-1 last week, 4-2 overall (only done this for three weeks).

 

Carolina at Oakland

Over 49.5

Love this one.  LOVE IT.  As I said above, QB frontrunner will be in all his glory as the Raiders D doesn’t believe in being good despite having one of the best pass rushers in football.  Derek Carr on the other hand lights up everyone.  So 49.5 is a gift!

 

Green Bay at Philadelphia

Over 47

I think you’re starting to notice that I refuse to bet the under.  My theory is that if you bet the under it is always in question.  When you bet the over, there is a threshold that once it’s broken, you win.  Makes sense to me, likely makes no sense to you, but regardless I’m just done betting unders, never win them, and then you’re hoping for a boring game.  Anyway, this is much the same as the bet above.  The Packers D can’t stop anyone, and Rodgers puts up points on everyone.

 

Guessing the Lines (week 13)

8/16 last week, 23/44 overall (only done this for three weeks).  I aim here to be within a point of the line.

 

Dallas -3.5 at Minnesota

As I’m writing this it dawns on me that this bet will be up somewhere, you’ll have to take my word on it but I didn’t see it yet.

 

Kansas City at Atlanta -3

 

Detroit at New Orleans – 2.5

 

Los Angeles at New England -11

 

Denver -6 at Jacksonville

 

Houston at Green Bay -3.5

 

Philadelphia -1.5 at Cincinnati

 

Miami at Baltimore -2.5 (take Miami!)

 

San Francisco at Chicago -2 (what a HORRIFIC game this will be)

 

Buffalo at Oakland -3.5

 

NY Giants at Pittsburgh -6

 

Washington at Arizona -2.5

 

Tampa Bay at San Diego -3.5

 

Carolina at Seattle -6.5

 

Indianapolis -2 at NY Jets (this is IF Andrew Luck is playing)

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 11 Hot Takes

ap_16325786687289It’s seriously U.S. Thanksgiving week already?!  That basically marks the beginning of the end of the football season.  That’s depressing for a guy like me.  Can’t football players just stop getting concussions and play year round?  Is that too much to ask?!  Like…just quit getting conky’s guys.  That’s all you have to do!

 

I guess I’ll start in Cincinnati where the Bengals look to be finished now that A.J. Green is likely done for the season.  Marvin Lewis is likely going to lose his job, but Tony Kornheiser brought up today something I’ve been thinking about with Cincy and that is Lewis took that organization from bottom feeders to being consistently good.  He’s a damn good head coach and if the Bengals let him go I’m sure it won’t take him long to find a gig elsewhere.

 

I say it every week and I’ll say it again: the Cowboys just continue to beat expectations every week.  I made sure to stay away from betting them this week and sure as shit they beat a 7.5 point spread against the Ravens who matched up well with them.  All the pro’s in Vegas were taking the Ravens, Colin Cowherd who has picked well over 60% this season was on the Ravens, and I just stayed away.  Thursday they are -9 if you can believe it, and a good team like Washington SHOULD cover that, but I just can’t bring myself to touch it.

 

Speaking of Thanksgiving, I don’t think we’ve ever had a Thanksgiving day schedule where the first two games were this sexy.  Cowboys and Redskins in a massive NFC East tilt, and before that we get the Lions and Vikings both coming off big wins in a battle for the lead in the NFC North.  It wasn’t pretty for the Lions against the Jags, but that’s how they’ve won all season.  Total offense they’re 25th.  Total defense they’re 19th.  Yet they’re just making plays at the right times.  The Vikings finally snapped their losing streak against a Cards team that just hasn’t been right all season, so this is the game that’ll prove whether or not they’re back to normal.  Unreal news coming out yesterday that Adrian Peterson might be back before the end of the season.  Say what you want about the way he raises his kids, but the guy is a freak of nature.

 

Tampa Bay beat KC in Arrowhead?!?  The Colts held a good offense to 17 points?!?  The Bears lost?!?

 

Speaking of the Bears…I’m not going to talk about them any further.  But I will talk about the team they played, and I’m going to say it now (hey, it’s finally an actual hot take!!!) that the NY Giants, after they beat the Browns on Sunday, will be the worst 8-3 team in NFL history.  That team is awful!  Yet they’re about to be 8-3.  I mocked it early in the season about people who would say that they were the worst 2-0 team in league history, assuming they would improve.  Well the same shitty team is now about to be 8-3.  They’ve hardly improved, but they have benefitted from a very weak schedule.  After the Browns game though, watch out.  I would not be shocked if the Giants lost their final five games of the season.  The lightest of their final five is the 6-4 Lions at home.

 

Jared Goff was…fine.  You have to remember that the Dolphins D is one of the best in the league, the Rams O-line is bad, their receivers aren’t good, and their offensive play calling isn’t good.  So other than Todd Gurley (who has underachieved a bit this season himself), this was an awful spot for a rookie QB which is why they’ve been sitting the kid!!!  I don’t think they will, but the Rams really need to get both Jeff Fisher and Les Snead out of power.  Those would perhaps be the hottest job openings in football should they open up, so it might be the perfect time to clean house after the season.  I love Jeff Fisher, but he has needed to bring in a top end offensive co-ordinator for 10 years now and refuses to do so.

 

I don’t know what more needs to be said about the Packers at this point, but I’ll gladly talk about the Redskins.  Some credit needs to be given to Jay Gruden.  He stepped into one of the biggest shit shows in the NFL.  Remember when he became their head coach?  Memba?!  It was all about RGIII and “make RGIII great again” may as well of been the motto.  They had no young talent thanks to blowing their wad in the draft on getting Griffin, and it was just a shit show.  Now, they look like they have their QB (Cousins isn’t a franchise QB, but they can win with him), and the offense in general is 2nd in the league in total yards.  It’s a playoff team for sure and I believe they’ll end up being the 5th seed in the NFC and a brutal matchup for one of the Vikings, Lions, Falcons or yes, possibly even the Buccaneers who are now only a game out in the NFC South.

 

My Raiders win again!  Sweet, but sweet because that gave me a 4-1 week ATS!  So in my last four winning weeks I’m now 15-4-1.  The only problem was the previous two weeks I was 1-8-1, but we can pretend that those two weeks didn’t happen if you want?

 

Finally, guessing the line.  How did I do this week after going 50% last week and getting 13 of 14 games within 2 points.

 

Minnesota at Detroit -1.5

Lions are -2.5, so only a point off, which if you’ve been keeping up with these you’d know that counts as a win.

 

Washington at Dallas -3

WAY OFF!!!  As of writing this, the public who is head over freaking heels on the Cowboys, have this spread now at Dallas -9!!!  I’m still scared to bet that with how hot the Cowboys are, but taking Washington +9 is a very intelligent bet to make.

 

Pittsburgh -4 at Indianapolis

It’s off the board right now with Andrew Luck likely gone with a concussion, but I’d be shocked if it’s right because of that.

 

L.A. at New Orleans -6

Saints -7, that’s a win.

 

Tennessee -4.5 at Chicago

Titans only -3.5, but again, that’s a win.

 

Arizona at Atlanta -2

A little bigger than I expected, with the Falcons favored by 4.  Might be a solid move to take the Cards, but the Falcons will be off their bye.

 

NY Giants -6 at Cleveland

Giants are -7, so another win.  I wouldn’t be SHOCKED if the Browns finally got their win here.  If they don’t, 0-16 is likely on the horizon.

 

San Diego at Houston -1.5 (I’d take the Chargers, but believe the Texans will get favoured)

Not on the board just yet as the Texans/Raiders game just ended, but I looked it up and apparently it’s a pick’em.  I’d still take the Chargers.

 

Jacksonville at Buffalo -6

Damn, this one is now up to Buffalo by 7.5.  Jacksonville is bad, but I don’t know if I’d trust the Bills that much.

 

Cincinnati at Baltimore -3

Ravens -4.5.  Much like the Bills, I know the Bengals suck, but can you really trust the Ravens?

 

San Francisco at Miami -7.5

Dolphins -8, so another win.

 

Seattle -7 at Tampa Bay

Early betting loves the Seahawks, but the line hasn’t moved yet from Seahawks -5.5.  A devastating loss for yours truly.

 

New England -7 at NY Jets

Pats -7.5.  Another win.  I’d think hard about the Jets here as they always play the Pats tough.

 

Carolina at Oakland -2.5

Wow, -4 for the Raiders according to what I googled (not on the board right now).  I’d take the Panthers here.  Not a Cam Newton fan but he should destroy this Raiders D.

 

Kansas City at Denver -2

Broncos -3, which is a win but I’m guessing I’d have been bang on had the Chiefs not laid that egg at home against the Bucs.

 

Green Bay at Philadelphia -3

Eagles -3.5, so that’s 8.  50% again this week.  Not bad, in my opinion.  I wish I could bet the games as good as I can predict the lines.

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

 

 

NFL Week 11 Picks ATS

NFL: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee TitansIt’s been a REAL shitty last two weeks!  1-8-1 in that time.  26-22-3 now on the season.  Just two weeks ago I was on a three week run of 11-3-1 (I’ll bring that up for the rest of the season, just you watch) and I was 25-14-3.

 

If there has been something I’ve learned it is who to stay away from and who to ride.  I’m staying away from the NY Giants and Philadelphia as you don’t have a damn clue what you’re getting from those two teams week to week.  Then you have teams like Green Bay, Dallas, and Cleveland (even though I’ve gone the other way on them) who are fun to ride right now.  Green Bay is always losing ATS, as are the Browns, where the Cowboys are beating the line every week, although I’d just stay away from the Cowboys/Ravens game this week.

 

Buffalo at Cincinnati

Bills +2.5

I don’t really like the Bills, but it’s becoming clear that the Bengals just aren’t a good football team.  So you combine that with the fact that the Bills are off a bye week and the Bengals are on a short week and I really love the Bills to take this one outright this week.  Of course I talked in the opening about teams you can’t and can trust this season, well these are two teams that have been pretty consistent week to week.  The Bills are better than I give them credit for, the Bengals are much worse.

 

Pittsburgh at Cleveland

Steelers -8

The Browns are getting their teeth kicked in every week.  I believe this line is only 8 because the Browns are on extra rest this week, but the Steelers are now a bit of a desperate football team.  They’re a game back of the Ravens in the division and lost what is so far their only head to head matchup.  Even though it’s a big number, I believe the Steelers are going to come out on fire for this one after losing that heartbreaker to Dallas.  And if the Steelers are fired up, it’ll be a blowout because the talent difference between the two teams is too big.

 

Tennessee at Indianapolis

Titans +3

I like the Titans outright.  This is a line that is predicated on past beliefs that aren’t reality this season.  The Colts aren’t good, and I know they’re off a bye week.  But while I’ve loved that being a betting go to in the past, we are starting to see since the new NFL CBA that the bye week is really only beneficial to teams with great coaching, and the Colts don’t have great coaching.  The Titans on the other hand are on fire.  Marcus Mariota has me really believing in him becoming a franchise QB and their running game is going to overmatch the Colts.  I don’t think the Titans run away with this one.  I would guess how it plays out is the Titans get up big early, the Colts comeback, but the Titans pull out a close one.

 

Green Bay at Washington

Redskins -2.5

This game is much like the one above.  The public still loves Green Bay, and still hates Washington which holds this line down to only 2.5 and has me ALL FREAKING OVER the Redskins this week.  There is clearly something rotten in the Packers locker room and I don’t think it is something that’ll be resolved this season.  The Packers at this point need a high draft pick, need to part way’s with Mike McCarthy who I believe is a fantastic coach but much like John Harbaugh, Marvin Lewis, and maybe even Mike Tomlin it is just time to move on (going to be a ton of coaching changes this offseason).  The Packers literally have no running game, which allows defenses to load up against the passing game which of course is normally the Packers strength.  I do think the Packers will battle hard in this one, but the Redskins will take it by a TD or so in the end.  Also don’t forget, this is a revenge game of sorts for the Redskins after being bounced by the Packers in last year’s playoffs.

 

Houston vs Oakland

Raiders -6

Notice that says “vs”, not “at” with this game being played in Mexico City Monday night.  So it’s a neutral site game, both teams are off their bye week, but I love the Raiders here in a bit of a blowout.  Brock Osweiler is just not a good QB, and the more time is going on, the more film coaches have on him, the more they’re exposing him.  So with two weeks for the Raiders coaches to game plan against him I think the chances are high that the Raiders D will make him look real bad in this one.  The Texans D meanwhile is solid even without J.J. Watt, but nothing special.  The Raiders O-line should own the Texans front seven, giving Carr time to pick apart their secondary.

 

Over/Under

1-1 last week, 3-1 overall (only done this for two weeks).

 

New England at San Francisco

Over 51

It’s safe to say that the Patriots on their own could by themselves go for 51 this week.  They won’t be happy after losing on Sunday night, and a nice little tidbit here is that Tom Brady grew up a Niners fan and doesn’t get to play at home very often.  He’ll be at his best in this game.  Now last week I had this same logic, and it was the Cards who let me down.  But I said, Chip Kelly’s play calling will put up points, and he has Colin Kaepernick at least playing confident right now.  I’m not going to suggest a score this week like I did with the Niners game last week, but I’ll just say I see this going over.

 

Green Bay at Washington

Over 49

I don’t get this one at all.  I think this game is going to be a total shootout.  The passing game is the strength of both of these teams, and so if this game goes under 49 then it would be a pretty massive shock.  Plus, the Sunday night games a lot more often than not seem to bring out the best in offenses (obviously the Seattle/Arizona game was an exception).

 

Guessing the Lines (week 12)

7/14 last week, 15/28 overall (only done this for two weeks).

 

Minnesota at Detroit -1.5

 

Washington at Dallas -3

 

Pittsburgh -4 at Indianapolis

 

L.A. at New Orleans -6

 

Tennessee -4.5 at Chicago

 

Arizona at Atlanta -2

 

NY Giants -6 at Cleveland

 

San Diego at Houston -1.5 (I’d take the Chargers, but believe the Texans will get favoured)

 

Jacksonville at Buffalo -6

 

Cincinnati at Baltimore -3

 

San Francisco at Miami -7.5

 

Seattle -7 at Tampa Bay

 

New England -7 at NY Jets

 

Carolina at Oakland -2.5

 

Kansas City at Denver -2

 

Green Bay at Philadelphia -3

 

Follow me on Twitter @TJ_Soups

NFL Week 10 Hot Takes

11132016-seahawks42b_tzr-780x501Man, a relationship is hard work.  I am currently sitting on my couch, and not the reclining part of my couch where my girlfriend is.  Nope, I’m stuck on the middle part.  And the Monday nighter is on my phone, because she gets the big TV to watch Teen Mom.  Like, I don’t mean to compare it to a place like prison, but it’s KIND OF like prison!

 

If that’s not a hot take, I don’t know what is!

 

I didn’t get to see the Sunday nighter, which was awesome from all accounts, so I’ll start with the gem I did get to see between the Cowboys and Steelers.  The Cowboys seemingly face a bigger challenge every week, and every week they pass with flying colours.  People rave about the two rookies and how amazing Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott are.  And they are great, don’t get me wrong.  But it’s all about the O-line.  That O-line is one of the best in NFL history.  The Cowboys had one of the best before with what was known as the Great Wall of Dallas in the 90’s.  All three Super Bowls the Redskins have won were mainly because of the hogs.  The Raiders in the 70’s were led by Art Shell and Gene Upshaw.  Of course (I say “of course” like any of you are anything of NFL history buff’s like I am) the Packers of the 60’s had likely the best O-line in league history.  This line isn’t THAT good, but they’re on their way to being all time like those lines were.

 

As for Romo v Prescott…they’ll stick with Dak, and I understand it.  I don’t think I would (still), but I do get it because of the shit storm it would create if they made the switch.  The best thing that could happen for the Cowboys in my opinion is if Prescott goes down for a game or two allowing them to put Romo back in and keep him there.  He’s the better QB, I’m sorry.  Don’t act like you haven’t seen a Cowboys team do this before.  This is what the Cowboys were when Romo has been healthy the two previous seasons.  And while Prescott took advantage of Bryant yesterday down field, he can’t do that against a team with a good secondary.  His arm isn’t strong.  His deep ball doesn’t have the zip on it that Romo’s does.  Most of the time I believe that shit is so overrated by fans and media.  But there isn’t much separating the two QB’s.  The deep ball and the experience are why I’d lean Romo.  But they’ll stick with Prescott, and I totally understand it and it’s likely the right decision because of the distraction a switch would cause.  And I’m not meaning to slight Prescott at all in saying all that, the kid is clearly real good.

 

If I did power rankings, which just about everyone does like a moron because they just simply go for a “what have you done for me lately” article rather than ranking the teams who would win it all despite what their record says, I would have the Cowboys ahead of the Seahawks.  Some might question that, seeing how the Seahawks are coming off that massive win at Foxborough.  But remember, they have two extremely controversial wins.  In fairness, that was with Russell Wilson being pretty beat up.  It does look like he’s getting healthy now and if that’s the case they’ll move back past the Cowboys in those power rankings that I don’t do.  That’s a pretty damn impressive win, and just when I was bitching about there being nobody worthwhile in the NFC, the Seahawks and there coach who celebrates everyone’s mistakes, and there annoying fan base who refer to themselves as “the 12’s” as if they weren’t about the 84th fan base to be called “the 12th man”, and did you know Richard Sherman went to Stanford?  I wish someone would mention that….anyway, that team will be back as the favourites in the NFC for the third time in four seasons.

 

A few weeks back I called Cam Newton a front runner.  I stand by that statement.  KC is real good, so that’s not a terrible loss.  But considering the Panthers led 17-3 at halftime and lost to a team that is built to play with the lead is pretty bad.  The good news for Cam is that the Saints are in town on Thursday, and they don’t play much D so Cam can start loving the game again since it’ll be easy for him…

 

Normally I talk about the Packers struggles, but I’m just going to focus on the Titans for this week.  They’re really improving!  I wasn’t a big Marcus Mariota guy at all, but he is learning to play from the pocket, he is only relying on his legs when the moment calls for it, and along with that great ground game they have led by DeMarco Murray I really believe the Titans will be the AFC South champions by season’s end, which isn’t saying much but it means they’ll get to lose to Oakland wildcard weekend.  That’s better than sitting at home like most teams will be doing.

 

I feel bad for Vikings fans.  This team would be on top of the NFC and a Super Bowl contender with Bridgewater, Peterson and Kalil all healthy.  Instead, all three are gone, Sam Bradford is now getting beat up and there for playing like his old skittish self, and now that defense is starting to look a little vulnerable.  Not that it isn’t still great, but they need it to be elite to have a chance these days and it just ain’t happening.  They’ve now lost four in a row.

 

Can people shut up about how the Rams made the wrong pick.  Does the American media seriously not know a thing about Jeff Fisher?!  He might be the most conservative coach in the NFL.  The man sat Steve McNair (3rd overall in 1995) for two seasons, not just one, before starting him.  He doesn’t believe in rushing his QB’s, especially one who never took a snap from under center in college.  There is NOTHING wrong with sitting Jared Goff.  Some dip shits are calling him a bust already.  Just save yourself the humiliation of speaking…dip shits.  Yes, this includes Cris Carter who went on Colin Cowherd’s show last week and went off about how he’s a bust, minus any inside information on the matter.

 

Last week I was tittering on saying the Dolphins have perhaps turned a corner.  Now their streak is up to four and the fourth was pretty impressive winning in San Diego.  I definitely believe they’re the second best team in the AFC East (not saying a lot), and they are now in the hunt for the 6th seed in the AFC.  I still would have other teams I like more to take that spot, but the Dolphins are in it and seem to have found their identity.

 

What has happened to the Bengals?  I know, they’re a joke come playoff time, but this has been an elite regular season team the previous five seasons.  They aren’t old, they aren’t any less talented, they just are playing awful.  They’re a much better team than the Giants, and coming off their bye week that’s a game you have to win.  This should be a likely will be Marvin Lewis final season in Cincy assuming this keeps up.  I got a good landing spot for him too….Baltimore.  John Harbaugh moves on after this season, Marvin Lewis goes back to Baltimore where he was the defensive co-ordinator for that awful to watch but defensively tremendous Ravens team that won Super Bowl XXXV.  Might make some sense.

 

My picks were shit again, yet this week I don’t think I did a thing wrong, just had shitty luck.  1-4.  Should have at least been 2-3!  That return on the two pointer in the Broncos/Saints game was BS, he was out of bounds!  Oh well, I was hot for three weeks, ice cold now for two.  That’s how betting goes.

 

Finally, how did I do guessing the lines this week?  Real good, thanks for asking!

 

New Orleans at Carolina -3.5

As of writing this (Monday night), I was only off my half a point.  Panthers -3.

 

Pittsburgh -10.5 at Cleveland

Close, but not quite right.  Steelers only favoured by 9.

 

Baltimore at Dallas -6.5

Off by a point, which is basically what I shoot for is to be within a point.  Cowboys -7.5.

 

Jacksonville at Detroit -4.5

Maybe the biggest miss of the week.  I don’t like the Jags at all but didn’t expect the Lions to get this much respect, though they deserve it.  Lions -7.

 

Tennessee at Indianapolis -1.5

Missed again here just barely.  I know the Colts are coming off a bye, but the Titans are going to win this outright, and as long as the line stays favouring the Colts it’ll be on my week 11 picks ATS.  Colts -3.

 

Buffalo at Cincinnati -3

I use Sports Interaction for my source on the lines, but with the Bengals/Giants game not done yet as of writing this I went to another site (footballlocks?  It has the projected lines, so whatever).  Bengals -4, so I just got it.

 

Tampa Bay at Kansas City -7

Bingo.  KC -7.5.

 

Chicago at NY Giants -4

A little larger of spread than I expected here.  Giants -6.

 

Arizona at Minnesota -2

I knew this was going to be very wrong after the Vikings loss.  But the Cards barely got by the lowly Niners at home.  Still, it’s a pick’em.

 

Miami -1.5 at Los Angeles

Hmmmm.  Pick’em.  As long as it stays that way or the Dolphins get points, I’ll be taking Miami.  They’ve turned a corner.

 

New England -13 at San Francisco

Going -13 I figured was nice an extreme, yet right with it being in San Francisco.  No love for the Niners performance in Arizona either.  Pats -14.5.

 

Philadelphia at Seattle -6

SPOT ON.

 

Green Bay at Washington -3

It’s off the board on Sports Interaction right now, but that other website says the Redskins are -2.5.

 

Houston at Oakland -7

JUST got this one with the Raiders -6.  I’ll be taking the Raiders if that’s the case, even with it in Mexico City.

 

7/14, but 13/14 were within two points.  I’m totally meaning to brag when I say that is DAMN GOOD!  Be sure to tune in next week when I brag about more shit I called, because if there is one thing I know about people, it’s that they love to hear when you were right and they weren’t…

 

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NFL Week 10 Picks ATS

2cmblmwhAs you may be starting to notice, I love doing these historic pic mashup’s.  Ok, so last week…GROSS.  I came crashing back to earth last week with a horrendous 0-4-1 week.  After a three week stretch of 11-3-1 I go 0-4-1.  That’s betting football right there.  Makes no sense.  25-18-3 now on the season, which is still real solid, but I think I can do better.  I DID hit both over/under’s last week, so I’ll do two more of those today, and I did pretty good on guessing the lines so that is back for another week.  I know you’re just as excited to get this started as I am.  You’re…not?  Oh, well, nobody values your opinion anyway…stupid idiot.

 

Denver at New Orleans

Saints -3

This line I believe is one of those designed to put money on the Broncos, don’t.  The Saints are getting really hot, and the Broncos are starting to show cracks in the foundation.  Teams are figuring out Trevor Siemian, and the D is starting to get beat up.  No Aqib Talib again this week, T.J. Ward is questionable, no Derek Wolfe, this D is hurting bad.  Drew Brees is going to have his way with them.  Also, one of my favourite things is happening here.  Broncos, a MST team is playing in the East, 11 AM start for them.

 

Green Bay at Tennessee

Titans +3

Very simply the Packers seem to have a ton of problems in their locker room, and the Titans are going to run the football down their throats.  No Clay Matthews, so an already tough QB to track down gets tougher to track down for the Packers D.  I really believe the Titans are going to take this one outright.

 

Los Angeles at NY Jets

Jets -1.5

Easy bet here.  I think the reason the Jets are only 1.5 point favourites is because of the uncertainty of their QB situation.  Sounds like Fitzpatrick is going to go, but even if he doesn’t I don’t think it’s much of a drop off to Bryce Petty.  I also think the public are down on the Jets after the loss to the Dolphins, but the Dolphins are playing great if you haven’t noticed.  Meanwhile the Rams just aren’t that good of a team.  And again we have a West coast team playing a 10 AM PST game.  It’ll be a pretty low scoring game, but I believe the Jets will take it and with it only being 1.5, I love the Jets.

 

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Steelers -2.5

I don’t know why I keep doing this to myself.  The Cowboys, who I like to see do good unlike most, make me look foolish every week.  I project them to fall a little and they have embarrassed me every single time.  So here we are, Steelers giving 2.5 points.  But I have to think that the highly talented Steelers knock them off, because the Steelers keep playing up to their opponents.  Combine that with the fact that the Cowboys have had the easiest schedule in the NFL to this point, and the Cowboys secondary is a bit beat up which is the last thing you need against this Steelers passing attack.  I do worry a little that everyone is just assuming Roethlisberger will be much better this week, I don’t think it’s far fetched to assume that he’s still going to be playing very hurt.  But that’s still not enough to sway me the other way.

 

Cincinnati at NY Giants

Bengals -1

Bengals win here, I just don’t doubt it.  I know, the Giants looked ok off their bye week, but everyone should look good off their bye week.  Unless you have a terrible head coach, you should always look good off your bye week.  Well, now the Bengals are off their bye week.  And as much flack as Marvin Lewis gets for early playoff losses and last year’s implosion in the AFC wildcard game, Lewis is a damn good coach.  Add to that, the Bengals are a much more talented team than the Giants are.  Remember too, even though the Giants won last week, Doug Pederson’s play calling likely lost that game for the Eagles.  Had the Eagles connected on that fade route at the end of the game, the Giants would likely be a lot bigger dogs than they are this week.

 

Over/Under

2-0 last week

 

Dallas at Pittsburgh

Over 50

I don’t see these teams stopping.  This game is going to be a shootout, and I like the Steelers because while Prescott has proven himself in every situation thus far, facing Big Ben, in Pittsburgh, he’ll try to keep up but I don’t think he can.

 

San Francisco at Arizona

Over 48.5

The Niners can’t stop anyone, so the Cards off a bye are going to obliterate their defense.  The Cards might put up 41 on their own here.  And Chip Kelly as a play caller, despite the Cards D being as good as it is, will put up some points.  I’d be pretty stunned if this game went under 50, and you don’t even need it to get to 50.

 

Guessing the Lines (week 11)

8/14 right last week

 

New Orleans at Carolina -3.5

 

Pittsburgh -10.5 at Cleveland

 

Baltimore at Dallas -6.5

 

Jacksonville at Detroit -4.5

 

Tennessee at Indianapolis -1.5

 

Buffalo at Cincinnati -3

 

Tampa Bay at Kansas City -7

 

Chicago at NY Giants -4

 

Arizona at Minnesota -2

 

Miami -1.5 at Los Angeles

 

New England -13 at San Francisco

 

Philadelphia at Seattle -6

 

Green Bay at Washington -3

 

Houston at Oakland -7

 

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